Top NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Last Remaining Undefeated Team +1000 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With the 2023 NFL season just days away, we look at some interesting futures for some last-minute value bets.
BetOnline, a top sportsbook for US bettors, has plenty of interesting props related to team performance in the 2023 regular season that you can bet on today.
Below, we give our best betting picks for these markets as we await the opening kickoff.
The Perfect and Imperfect Seasons (17-0 and 0-17)
- Any Team to Go 0-17 in 2023 Regular Season – Yes (+1400) or No (-5000) at BetOnline
- Any Team to Go 17-0 in 2023 Regular Season – Yes (+1600) or No (-10000) at BetOnline
You can bet whether or not any team will go 17-0 or 0-17 this NFL season. The addition of that 17th game makes both less likely to hit than they already were.
Only four teams in NFL history have ever started 14-0, and the last two (2009 Colts and 2015 Panthers) failed to get to 15-0. The 1972 Dolphins finished 17-0 if you include the playoffs, though they infamously played a very weak schedule that the 2023 Dolphins would kill for in a competitive AFC East.
Only the 2007 Patriots finished the regular season 16-0 and got to 18-0 in the playoffs before they too fell in the Super Bowl to the Giants to finish 18-1.
On the other side of the coin, the 2008 Lions were the first 0-16 team. The 2016 Browns started 0-14 before getting a win in their 15th game, but the 2017 Browns finished the job by going 0-16.
More Competitive Than Ever
Call it parity or mediocrity if you want, but the fact is the NFL has been too competitive the last five seasons to expect a 0-17 or 17-0 team.
Since 2018, no team has done better than 14 wins, no team has done worse than 15 losses, and every team has won at least 3 games the last two seasons. Even a team that wins at a consistently high rate like the Chiefs has never started better than 5-0 in the Patrick Mahomes era.
In the AFC alone, there are just too many good quarterbacks to expect anyone to get undefeated or winless. One of the worst teams in projected wins, Tampa Bay, still plays in one of the easiest divisions (NFC South).
We’ll gladly fade the imperfect and perfect seasons happening this year.
NFL Pick: Any Team to Go 0-17 in 2023 Regular Season – No -5000 at BetOnline
NFL Pick: Any Team to Go 17-0 in 2023 Regular Season – No -10000 at BetOnline
Last Remaining Undefeated Team in 2023-24
Highest Odds (see full list at BetOnline)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+800)
- San Francisco 49ers (+1000)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+1000)
- Buffalo Bills (+1100)
This is always an interesting one and no longer is it as predictable as in the old days of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady-led teams. In the last two years, the 2021 Cardinals (7-0) and 2022 Eagles (8-0) proved to be the last unbeaten teams in the NFL.
Kansas City’s Chances
As we just analyzed in the previous section about 17-0 seasons, the Chiefs are a logical favorite as the defending champs with the best player (Patrick Mahomes) in the game, but Kansas City has never done better than 5-0 in five tries with Mahomes.
But the schedule is key here. Things do look interesting with the Week 4 trip to the Jets standing out as the first major test if Aaron Rodgers is sharp early for his new team. The Chiefs will also have three straight division games in Weeks 6-8, and we know Russell Wilson and Sean Payton will be dying to end Denver’s 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Wilson actually played some of his best ball against Kansas City last year.
While it would not be shocking for the Chiefs to start 6-0 or 7-0, the team is not bulletproof to get by every road game as we saw last year with a bad loss in Indianapolis early in the season.
The Top NFC Teams
With the expected competitiveness of the AFC, it makes sense to target an NFC for the third year in a row in this market. The 49ers are not a good choice due to the uncertainty at quarterback with Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, and Trey Lance all under consideration for Week 1. Plus, the 49ers tend to always drop a winnable game early under Kyle Shanahan. They lost to the Bears in Week 1 last year, and Chicago ended up with the No.1 pick.
The Eagles starting 8-0 in consecutive years seems unlikely, but the schedule again breaks down to being favorable, with the Jets (Week 6) standing out as the road test just as they do for the Chiefs. If you cannot already tell, getting your predictions about how good the Jets are under Aaron Rodgers in 2023 is going to be crucial to how your overall picks go this season. But Philadelphia being 8-0 before facing Dallas is absolutely possible.
The Less Likely Options
Likewise, the Bills could be 8-0 heading into the Week 9 game with Cincinnati, with the Week 1 trip to the Jets standing out as the top wild card. The schedule makers really put it on the Jets early. But the Bills are also too unreliable to get through all of these games unscathed.
Baltimore (+1200) could be a decent dark horse, but those road trips to Cincinnati (Week 2) and Pittsburgh (Week 5) are tough division matchups that can be losses.
In the 2020 COVID season, no one saw Pittsburgh starting 11-0 in Ben Roethlisberger’s return, so going off the grid for this one is not a bad idea. However, it is just hard to envision many teams starting 7-0 or 8-0 this year. One that does make logical sense again is Philadelphia. While the Eagles are not going to sneak up on anyone this year, the talent gap, balance, additions in the draft, and the schedule do allow for another 8-0 start.
Let’s go with the Eagles to repeat as the NFL’s last unbeaten team.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Last Remaining Undefeated Team +1000 at BetOnline
Last Remaining Winless Team in 2023-24
Highest Odds (see full list at BetOnline)
- Arizona Cardinals (+450)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000)
- Tennessee Titans (+1000)
- Houston Texans (+1000)
- Los Angeles Rams (+1200)
It would be surprising if the winner of this market did not come from one of the South divisions or the NFC West.
However, we can probably eliminate the Titans and Rams right away. Mike Vrabel and Sean McVay are too good as head coaches to keep losing week after week, especially after some bad losing slides in 2022. When healthy at quarterback (Ryan Tannehill and Matthew Stafford) and with Cooper Kupp and Derrick Henry available, those teams are not holding out for wins the longest.
The Cardinals have to deal with an underwhelming coaching hire (Jonathan Gannon) and losing veterans like J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, and Kyler Murray is far from a lock to be ready early in the season. Murray may not even be ready for October. If Arizona does not steal an early game from the Commanders (Week 1) or Giants (Week 2), then it could be an 0-8 start headed to Cleveland, or 0-9 hosting Atlanta before a Week 11 clash in Houston.
Are the Cardinals Least Favored?
The Texans made the huge draft trade with Arizona to get edge rusher Will Anderson this year to go with quarterback C.J. Stroud, but rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans has his work cut out for him in giving this team a new identity. But Houston started 1-3-1 last year, as beating Jacksonville has been something the team is known for doing. The Texans get the Colts and Jaguars in Games 2-3, so they may not be waiting that long for a win this year.
Tampa Bay is definitely worth a look with a poor roster and underwhelming coaching staff behind Todd Bowles. However, the early schedule includes the Vikings, Bears, Eagles, Saints, Lions, and Falcons. This team might be 1-5 at worst as Bowles should at least play a defensive style that keeps the games close enough to win at the end.
The teams we highlighted all have a good chance to be poor in 2023, but only the Cardinals have the underwhelming mixture of coach, quarterback, and schedule to foresee an 0-7 or 0-8 type of start to the season. The betting odds are heavily in their favor, but it makes sense.
NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals Last Remaining Winless Team +450 at BetOnline
Team with the Best Regular Season Record 2023-24
Highest Odds (see full list at BetOnline)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+800)
- Buffalo Bills (+850)
- San Francisco 49ers (+900)
We should start by noting it says at BetOnline that the tie-breaker will be the team awarded with the No. 1 seed by the NFL, though that is still unclear, as the Eagles and Chiefs were both 14-3 with the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences last year. So, it is unclear if you can end up getting a tie in this market or if only one team can win it.
Understandably, the Chiefs and Eagles are favored to do it again, but it will probably take at least 13 wins for any team to earn this distinction. The last season to have the best regular-season record without 13 wins was 2014, when five teams finished 12-4.
For the Chiefs, this would be the third time in the last four seasons that they would have the best record after going 14-2 in 2020 and 14-3 in 2022. As much as you should never bet against Mahomes, it just feels like we jumped the gun on the strong AFC West last year, and it will be better this year. So many of those close finishes went Kansas City’s way in 2022, but the Bills, Bengals, Chargers, and Broncos all can play the Chiefs tough again.
The game that could ultimately decide this is in Week 11, when the Chiefs host the Eagles in a Monday night rematch of the Super Bowl. But even if the Eagles lose that game, split with Dallas, lose to San Francisco, and drop some other road game like the Jets, that is still a 13-4 record for the team with the best mixture of quarterback, offensive balance, and defensive success in the conference.
Other Contenders?
Does Dallas look ready to take over the division after relying on so many takeaways defensively the last two years while not protecting the ball well on offense last year? Not really. The Eagles should win the NFC East again.
The 49ers have their quarterback dilemma and the fact that Shanahan typically loses to some inferior teams each year, including the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons last year.
With the AFC having such a quarterback imbalance and number of options who can at least compete with Mahomes, it may be a season where 12 or 13 wins is enough for the No. 1 seed. But in the less competitive NFC, the Eagles still have the advantage, and if Jalen Hurts can stay healthy this time, they may very well repeat as the No. 1 seed and best overall record.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Team with the Best Regular Season Record +750 at BetOnline
Team with the Worst Regular Season Record 2023-24
Highest Odds (see full list at BetOnline)
- Arizona Cardinals (+325)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+900)
- Houston Texans (+1000)
- Washington Commanders (+1100)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200)
For the worst record, we are likely looking for a team that cannot win more than 3 games in 2023. You have to go far back as 2003 to find the last season where every NFL team won at least 4 games.
The Raiders are an odd choice for second-highest odds, but maybe the tough division and health concerns for Jimmy Garoppolo are larger than they appear. However, the Raiders blew six fourth-quarter leads last season and should be a candidate for some positive regression.
The Commanders also reek of a team who will be just good enough to avoid rock bottom. In 12 years as a head coach, Ron Rivera has never finished worse than 6-10 in a full season, and he was 5-7 when Carolina fired him in 2019.
The Rams (+1200) have the same odds as Tampa Bay, but again, it is hard to see a team coached by Sean McVay with Stafford, Kupp, and Aaron Donald finishing with the worst record in the NFL two years removed from a Super Bowl win.
Arizona Has a Tough Challenge Ahead
Tampa Bay is a solid choice, because this was an 8-9 team that played like a 4-13 team last year if you take away Tom Brady’s voodoo magic. But even Todd Bowles has never finished worse than 4-13, and the roster of the Buccaneers is not as washed up as you would expect from a team earning the No. 1 pick in the draft.
If Houston can beat Arizona at home in Week 11, that just might do enough for the Cardinals to lock this one up. The Cardinals lost their last 7 games and just do not have much on the roster to look forward to on either side of the ball.
Colt McCoy could be the starter for the first half of the season for the Cardinals, and he is 0-22 in his career when his team allows 20-plus points. Let’s bank on the Cardinals to get the No. 1 pick and make an interesting decision at quarterback in the draft.
NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals Team with the Worst Regular Season Record +325 at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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