NFL Pick: 2023 NFC North – Minnesota Vikings (+325) BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Can the Minnesota Vikings repeat as NFC North champions for the first time since the 2008 and 2009 seasons? Despite winning 13 games in the last season, the Vikings are not favorites to win the division this year, as the oddsmakers feel stronger about the Lions.
Will that hold up or will the purple and gold surprise the bookies? Let’s take a look at an NFC North division that is up for grabs.
Quick Overview
Here are the current NFC North odds from the top offshore sportsbooks, for the 2023-24 NFL season, as of August 3, 2023:
Key Facts
- The Lions’ defense was a major liability last season as it has been for the last several years, ranked dead last in total yards allowed (392.4 YPG), No. 29 in rushing yards allowed (146.5 YPG), No. 30 in passing yards per game (245.8 YPG), and 28th in points allowed (25.1 PPG).
- But there is little doubt that having the best wideout on the planet, Justin Jefferson, catching his passes has helped Kirk Cousins immensely and now he will have another young pass-catching target to throw to in first-round pick and former USC star, Jordan Addison, to utilize in the passing game.
- The Packers did what they have now done in 12 of their last 13 drafts by choosing a defensive player with their first-round selection. In this case, they tapped Iowa pass rusher Lukas Van Ness with the 13th overall pick.
- The Bears had one of the best defenses just a few years ago but that quickly evaporated and last season they ranked dead last in points allowed (27.2 PPG) and 31st in rushing yards allowed (157.3 YPG).
Detroit Lions
- 2022 Record (9-8)
- Super Bowl Odds: +2500
Show me an elite offensive line and I will show you an explosive offense. That pretty much sums up the Detroit Lions of 2022 and likely a repeat in 2023. In fact, this Lions’ O-line might be even better this season with the return of Big V, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, assuming his position at right guard that he vacated after back surgery in early September negated his entire season.
And while the Lions have all the parts in place from last year’s surprisingly dangerous offense, ranked fourth in total yardage (380 yards per game) and fifth in points scored (26.6), they could have done better than picking Alabama running back, Jahmyr Gibbs, at No. 12 overall. Had they traded down with their second first-round selection (No. 18), and grabbed him at the bottom of the opening round, that would have been more in line with his value assuming he was still available.
Draft Mistake?
I bring up Detroit’s drafting snafu because they could have used that No. 12 overall selection to bolster their secondary or defensive line. The Lions’ defense was a major liability last season as it has been for the last several years, ranked dead last in total yards allowed (392.4 YPG), No. 29 in rushing yards allowed (146.5 YPG), No. 30 in passing yards per game (245.8 YPG), and 28th in points allowed (25.1 PPG).
Make no mistake, Detroit’s No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Aidan Hutchinson, is a bona fide stud as an edge rusher and worthy of the pick, but the lack of depth on the defense concerns me. I should also point out that starting wideout, Jameson Williams, who showed glimpses of his explosive speed in limited action last year due to knee surgery in the offseason, is suspended for six games due to a gambling infraction.
I think the hype train on Detroit is a bit overwrought as they won’t have the luxury of being overlooked in the NFL odds by their opponents. A good team, sure, but a great team, no way.
Minnesota Vikings
- 2022 Record (13-4)
- Super Bowl Odds: +5000
Your outlook on the Vikings likely hinges on your opinion of Kirk Cousins. Some believe him to be one of the best in the business while others shake their head at some of his inconsistent tendencies. I am entrenched in the former category as I look at his numbers every year and where his teams end up after the regular season and realize he’s a half-click below the elite.
But there is little doubt that having the best wideout on the planet, Justin Jefferson, catching his passes has helped Kirk Cousins immensely and now he will have another young pass-catching target to throw to in first-round pick and former USC star, Jordan Addison, to utilize in the passing game. Although veteran Adam Thielen is no longer a Viking, his skills were rapidly fading and if Addison is all he’s cracked up to be, this offense will be better because of him.
Proven Replacement
Dalvin Cook has likely played his last game in a Vikings’ uniform but his replacement, Alexander Mattison, has been perfectly fine in his limited backup role while showing off his receiving skills in catching 70 of 84 targets (83.3%) in his four seasons as a pro. And when you factor in having tight end T.J. Hockenson for a full season, this offense will have zero trouble moving the ball.
But like the Lions, Minnesota’s defense is its Achilles heel. However, we will get to see last year’s first-round pick, safety Lewis Cine, play this season after he spent most of last year on the shelf with a compound fracture to his left leg. I see the Vikings’ offense as lethal yet again while their defense should be improved. This is my division winner…again!
Green Bay Packers
- 2022 Record (8-9)
- Super Bowl Odds: +6000
The Aaron Rodgers era is over in Green Bay and now it’s time for the season of Love. Jordan Love that is, the first-round selection of the Packers back in 2020 that began the irreparable rift between Rodgers and Packers management.
The Packers were 8-9 last year with Rodgers under center and now they are in a rebuilding mode with a three-year rookie quarterback starting. If Love fades in his debut season as the Packers starting quarterback there will be no romance in Green Bay as his backup is a fifth-round pick out of Penn State named Sean Clifford.
But did management draft an offensive playmaker in the first round? Of course not, the Packers did what they have now done in 12 of their last 13 drafts by choosing a defensive player with their first-round selection. In this case, they tapped Iowa pass rusher Lukas Van Ness with the 13th overall pick.
A Passing League
The last time I checked this was a passing league and quite honestly the 2023 Packers don’t have the weapons to compete in an aerial competition. The wide receiving corps is devoid of talent with the exception of second-year man, Christian Watson, who has the skills but made his share of rookie mistakes last year.
The defense is good but the safeties are lousy. If the pass rush doesn’t cause havoc, then the opposing quarterback will be able to launch the long ball, and that will be a problem for the Packers’ last line of defense.
If Love stinks then so too will the Packers. But even if he doesn’t, they still won’t be a contender.
Chicago Bears
- 2022 Record (3-14)
- Super Bowl Odds: +6600
The Bears eschewed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and were rewarded with a king’s bounty from the Carolina Panthers. Justin Fields is clearly their man after last season’s breakout performance with only spare parts surrounding him.
However, that has changed in a hurry as Fields will get to play catch with one of the best young receivers in the game, DJ Moore. The 26-year-old star was part of the haul the Bears got in dealing the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina. Chicago also created depth when they signed D’Onta Foreman as a backup to running back Khalil Herbert and tight end Robert Tonyan who will work behind former Notre Dame star, Cole Kmet.
In the Trenches
And if you believe, as I do, that offenses are built from the trenches out then you would be hard-pressed not to like their first-round pick and 10th overall selection in April’s draft, Tennessee’s mammoth tackle Darnell Wright. He will be a superb bodyguard for Fields who now also has a Pro Bowl-caliber guard in Nate Davis, formerly of the Titans, whom the Bears signed in the offseason.
The Bears had one of the best defenses just a few years ago but that quickly evaporated and last season they ranked dead last in points allowed (27.2 PPG) and 31st in rushing yards allowed (157.3 YPG).
However, the Bears addressed many of those defensive woes through the draft with Florida’s defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. (2/53), Miami cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (2/56), and South Carolina defensive tackle Zacch Pickens (3/64). Chicago also threw a lot of money at shoring up the defense through free agency but still doesn’t have an elite pass rusher.
The Pick
I love the direction of this Chicago team and they could be a nice value at +400 over at BetOnline but I’ll stick with Minny to repeat as NFC North champs for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 NFC North – Minnesota Vikings (+325) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
