NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers Finish 1st in NFC North +425 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
You would have to go back to 1978 to find the last time all the division winners in the NFC repeated as champions the following season. The NFL can change rapidly, and the NFC is certainly in a state of flux with Tom Brady retiring and Aaron Rodgers jumping ship to the AFC.
This is why there could be some great values to find in betting on teams to finish in a specific order in the divisions. A top US sportsbook like BetOnline has those betting markets, and we are looking at the best NFC betting picks for exact division finish this season.
NFC East – Dallas Cowboys Finish 2nd (+140)
The NFC East is unique in the league in that it is the only division to not have a repeat division winner since 2004. Every other division has had at least two repeat winners in that time.
But this looks like a great opportunity for that streak to end with the team who last repeated, the Eagles, who won the NFC East in 2001-04. The Super Bowl did not go Philadelphia’s way, but the Eagles remain one of the most balanced teams in the league with great skill players and an incredible pass rush that even added more first-round talent in the draft.
The Best Prospect
The Cowboys are a fair challenger in the division, but they could take a step back after back-to-back 12-5 seasons where they led the league in takeaways on defense. That would be quite the difficult feat to pull off for a 3rd year in a row. The offense also is going with Brian Schottenheimer at offensive coordinator, which may not be the best news for taking Dak Prescott’s game to the next level in Year 8.
But the Cowboys still have enough talent and veteran coaching to pull off a winning record in the lesser conference. They also still have enough to stay ahead of the Giants and Commanders, who could easily swap 3rd and 4th place in the division, making those risky bets.
Other Contenders
The Giants paid quarterback Daniel Jones, but the jury is still out if he is the long-term answer there as he goes into his second season with Brian Daboll, the reigning Coach of the Year. The Giants started 6-1 with a lot of close wins over so-so teams before finishing 10-8-1 including the playoffs. The Giants were 0-4 against the Cowboys and Eagles last year.
Washington has a virtual unknown at quarterback in Sam Howell, but if the defense can play better, then the Commanders have enough weapons to make another .500-type season possible if Howell is not a disaster for new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who will want to prove he is worthy of a head coaching job after enjoying the success had by Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and company in Kansas City.
You can get the Eagles to win the division at -125 betting odds, but a better value is for Dallas to finish in 2nd place at +140.
NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys Finish 2nd in NFC East +140 at BetOnline
NFC West – Seattle Seahawks Finish 3rd (+340)
The first thing that stands out in the NFC West is that Arizona is expected to be so bad with a new coach and injured Kyler Murray that the Cardinals have -275 odds at BetOnline to finish in 4th place.
That is certainly the safest bet in the division, but it is far from the most valuable. The 49ers (-160) remain a heavy favorite to win it again, and they are without question a top 3 team in the conference along with the Eagles and Cowboys. The 49ers have ended Dallas’ season in the playoffs the last two years, but the 49ers have not been able to get past the NFC Championship Game.
But even with the quarterback health and legitimacy questions there, the 49ers have so many elite talents on the roster that the team should prevail for the division title.
We have the 49ers first and the Cardinals last, but the swamp to bet on is Seattle falling to 3rd after a surprise playoff appearance behind a Pro Bowl season from quarterback Geno Smith. Meanwhile, the Rams greatly disappointed and finished 5-12, the worst season ever for a defending Super Bowl champion.
A Renewed Rams Team
But let’s not bury the Rams so soon. The team is lacking draft picks from past trades, but their health was abysmal last year with neither Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, or Aaron Donald finishing the season healthy. The Rams also royally blew a game to Tampa Bay when they had a chance to get back to 4-4, then a week later was when Kupp was lost for the season with an injury. The following week, it was Stafford’s turn to have a season-ending injury.
A team coached by Sean McVay with Stafford, Kupp, and Donald should be worth considerably more than 5 wins in 2023. Meanwhile, the Seahawks snuck into the playoffs with a 9-8 record after edging out the backup Rams in overtime in Week 18.
In fact, Geno Smith led a 4th-quarter comeback in both games against the Rams, which is something he had only done 3 times in his career prior to 2022. Had the Rams been able to hold onto those leads, both teams would have finished 7-10.
Seattle did not have a strong defense last year, and the passing production for Smith was already regressing down the final 6 weeks of the season. He is a risk to repeat his success as his career arc is unlike most in history, with 2022 being his most significant action since 2014. He has some very good weapons, though the Rams will hopefully be getting 2021’s best receiver (Kupp) back at full health and improving the offensive line to get more out of Cam Akers and the running game.
Expect the Unexpected
Look for 2022 to be an anomaly as the Rams swap places with the Seahawks for 2nd place. It is better value to bet Seattle in 3rd (+340) than it is for the Rams to finish 2nd (+300).
NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks Finish 3rd in NFC West +340 at BetOnline
NFC South – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Finish 4th (-105)
The NFC South is going to look mighty different in 2023 now that Tom Brady is gone in Tampa Bay, which has won the division the past two seasons. But Brady is far from the only change.
Derek Carr joins the Saints, reuniting him with his rookie coach in Oakland (Dennis Allen). The Panthers hired Frank Reich at head coach, and his latest new quarterback happens to be the No. 1 pick in the draft, Alabama’s Bryce Young. The Falcons also made a draft splash by adding running back Bijan Robinson to an offense that will want to run as much as possible again behind new quarterback Desmond Ridder.
It is a division that can go many ways, and after Tampa won it with an 8-9 record last year while everyone else was 7-10, it still may not produce a great team in 2023.
However, the schedule is likely going to help these teams win more games than they should, as the NFC South gets to play the AFC South and NFC North, two of the weakest divisions in the league.
The Saints especially could face an easy path to a division title as they are not scheduled to play any of the top 9 Super Bowl contenders based on the odds (all +2000 or better).
Tampa Bay’s Challenging Schedule
But which NFC South team does get a tougher 1st-place schedule? Tampa Bay, the team with the least inspiring quarterback-coach duo in the division. The Buccaneers have to play the Eagles and travel to face Buffalo and San Francisco.
As a head coach, Todd Bowles has lost at least 9 games in each of his last 4 seasons. Baker Mayfield ranked dead last in QBR (24.5) last season, and he inherits a roster that has continuously lost a lot of talent – largely due to retirements – since the team won the Super Bowl in 2020.
Instead of trying to figure out how good Carr will be in New Orleans, how ready Young will be as a rookie, or if Ridder is any good in Atlanta, the best bet is that the Buccaneers will fall to the bottom of the division after Brady abandoned a sinking ship. The odds are too good to pass up for this.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Finish 4th in NFC South -105 at BetOnline
NFC North – Green Bay Packers Finish 1st (+425)
For the first time since 1982, the Detroit Lions are the sole favorites to win their division going into a season (+125 at BetOnline). They ended up finishing 4-5 in a 9-game strike season, finishing in 4th place in a 5-team division.
But this is what happens when you play in a division with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay for 30 years, but the Packers have to move forward with Jordan Love now.
However, it was in 1992 when the Lions were coming off an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. They were +3000 to win the Super Bowl with an over/under of 9.0 wins, tied in the formerly named NFC Central with Chicago for the best preseason odds in that division.
But those 1992 Lions finished 5-11, a massive disappointment. Basically, the NFL world is not used to the Lions having expectations, and that is why it would not be surprising to see any order of finishers in this wild division.
Regressing Favorites
The 2022 Vikings needed 8 fourth-quarter comebacks to become the first team in NFL history to win more than 11 games despite being outscored on the season. That is a sure-fire sign to regress in 2023, as Kirk Cousins is usually not that proficient at pulling those close games out.
The Lions had a great offense but spent much of the season ranked 32nd on defense. They also have Jared Goff at quarterback, who had alarming home-road splits last year. The Lions also did not capitalize much positional value with their bevy of draft picks, choosing to use high picks on a running back and off-ball linebacker.
The Bears have a potentially fun player in quarterback Justin Fields, but he was the least valuable passer in football last year. It does not feel like adding D.J. Moore at wide receiver is enough to turn him into an accurate passer, nor does the defense have a great shot at moving from 32nd in points allowed to something much higher in one offseason.
The Packers are a wild card as they finished 8-9 despite Aaron Rodgers having the worst year of his career. Now we have to see if Matt LaFleur can make magic work with Jordan Love, who does have an emerging weapon in Christian Watson after he showed big-play ability to score touchdowns as a rookie.
The Bold Pick
Again, it would be easy to sell any order in the NFC North this season, so why not go for something bold? Let’s go with Jordan Love to be a successful dual-threat quarterback under a coach who has won over 70% of his games and never finished worse than 8-9. Do not expect the Lions to sweep Green Bay again, or for the Vikings to pull off that many comebacks again.
The next chapter starts in Green Bay with Love. The only juicier line is to bet on the Lions to completely flop and finish last (+600 at BetOnline), because it’s not like that has never happened before in Detroit.
NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers Finish 1st in NFC North +425 at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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