Top NCAAB Pick: San Diego +3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball-filled evening.
Three games interest me: VCU vs. Dayton, Pepperdine vs. San Diego, and Boise State vs. San Diego State. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Dayton, Pepperdine and Boise State.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. Dayton Flyers
Friday, March 08, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UD Arena
Dayton on Senior Day
Head coach Anthony Grant has his Dayton Flyers well-prepared to close out the regular season’s slate of home games on a powerful note. Since his first season in 2018, Dayton has won its final home game 88-78 over George Washington, 70-39 over La Salle, 76-51 over George Washington, 76-53 over Saint Louis, 82-76 over Davidson and 77-53 over La Salle.
Of its five victories, only one was by a single-digit margin. The offense always came ready to score a lot of points, which is a crucial facet of this trend in view of today’s game against a defensive-minded VCU team.
This season, Dayton has yet to lose at home. It has won its last six home games by eight points or more.
Revenge Spot
Playing at home, this is a great spot for Dayton’s offense. This is true despite how low-scoring the first game between these two teams was.
The Flyers have struggled consistently on the road against feisty, defensive-oriented sort of teams. So, their two-point loss at VCU must seem unsurprising. However, when the Flyers return home, it’s a different story.
When at home, they faced a Duquesne team that ranks 43rd nationally and third in the A 10 in defensive efficiency partly because it excels at forcing turnovers. They won it by 16. In Dayton, the Flyers’ excellent offense trumps the opponent’s excellent defense.
VCU’s Defense Currently
The Rams aren’t even playing good defense at the moment. Their form is also poor overall.
Whereas, preceding their win against Dayton, they had an impressive two-game winning streak going, they enter today’s game off a two-game losing streak. Before allowing 69 points at home to the A 10’s least efficient offense Duquesne, they allowed 79 points to Richmond in their second-to-last game.
Video footage – see its game against Richmond – shows that VCU defenders are often out of position. They might be, for example, spread out along the perimeter, in which case they’ll be vulnerable to cutters. You might see them devoting extra attention to a guy driving the basketball, who is then able to find his teammate for an open basket.
A VCU defender bit so badly on a fake handoff that Richmond’s big could cruise with ease for a dunk.
Dayton’s Three-Point Attack Against VCU
Because VCU likes to apply pressure, it’s important for an offense to be strong with the basketball.
The Flyers will benefit from being a team that does a good job – the fourth-best job in the A 10, to be exact – of avoiding turnovers on offense.
When the Rams apply double teams and try to trap opponents, Dayton’s ball-handlers will have the composure to make key passes and send VCU’s defense in rotation. Good passing will lead to open shots behind the arc, especially given the way that the Flyers like to spread themselves out, often with a player positioned at each corner.
A Dayton team that relies heavily on three-pointers –ranking first in its conference in three-point percentage– will be able to thrive from deep, especially against a VCU defense allowing opposing offenses to shoot more efficiently than usual behind the arc.
Dayton’s Inside Scoring
While it spreads out the Rams’ defense, Dayton will also employ cutters to pose a threat inside, or at least to suck in VCU’s defense in order to create more shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Moreover, key scorer DaRon Holmes will thrive inside for Dayton against VCU’s undersized defense that will struggle to contain his post-up prowess.
VCU’s Offense
VCU does a lot of pick-and-roll and drive-and-kick actions. The Rams want to drive the ball inside primarily in order to shoot threes.
However, Dayton barely allows anything at the rim. Its ability to switch on defense with its versatile defenders, its inclination to swarm inside and its tendency to sometimes employ double teams on the wing, all help prevent dribble penetration. Against this Dayton team that held them to under 50 points on their home floor, it will be hard for the Rams to set up their three-point attack.
They will have a tough time scoring again, whereas Dayton’s offense will soar.
NCAAB Pick: Dayton -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Pepperdine Waves vs. San Diego Toreros
Friday, March 08, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Orleans Arena
Pepperdine’s Defense
On defense, the Waves’ weakness is guarding the basket. They allow the nation’s 17th-highest rate of field goals and they are the 43rd-worst team in the nation at limiting opposing field goal efficiency at the basket.
When Pepperdine and San Diego met twice in the regular season, San Diego was able to succeed inside the arc both times. The Toreros scored 77 points in their home less to Pepperdine while shooting inside the arc seven percentage points higher than their season average. In their subsequent game against the Waves, at Pepperdine, they won despite shooting 1-for-15 from deep.
San Diego’s Offense
On offense, the Toreros match up well against Pepperdine because they are comfortable attacking the basket. They rank in the upper third nationally at field goal attempts at the rim.
You’ll see them employ cutting actions and pick-and-rolls, and you’ll see them drive inside. In a lot of ways, they’ll exploit Pepperdine’s interior defense.
Pepperdine Lacks the Same Advantage
I dislike Pepperdine because its offense is much easier for San Diego to figure out, which explains the success that the Toreros had with their rematch on the road against Pepperdine.
Whereas San Diego’s weakness on defense is guarding the basket, Pepperdine is allergic to scoring at the rim. The Waves miss someone like Gonzaga’s Graham Ike who can exploit San Diego’s lack of physicality inside. Instead, ranking 13th nationally at two-point jump shot attempts, the Waves concentrate on scoring in the mid-range, from which space San Diego does the 28th-best job of limiting field goal attempts.
The Toreros will be comfortably well-positioned to stop Pepperdine’s mid-range-oriented motion offense, whereas Pepperdine has just the sort of defense that San Diego wants to face.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego +2.5 (-114) at BetOnline
Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Friday, March 08, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena
Matchup History
Boise State enters tonight’s game on 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS runs against San Diego State. During this stretch of play, the Broncos have two upset wins on San Diego State’s home floor.
Since this matchup turned in Boise State’s favor in 2022, it has been apparent that its head coach has the upper hand over San Diego State’s head coach. The Broncos have the advantage in this game in terms of the way they use their players against San Diego State’s.
San Diego State’s Exploitable Defense
Nobody can deny that, objectively, the Aztecs have a great defense. However, their greatness on defense does not preclude them from suffering against tough matchups. In conference play, they’ve allowed as many as 88 points, so let’s not act like they’re invincible.
It is easy to get the Aztecs’ defense into scramble mode. San Diego State suffers from being aggressive inside with, for example, its post double. Its ball-screen coverage also causes problems for itself. The Aztecs’ off-ball defender will often be sucked into the opposing ball-handler’s penetration inside.
What often happens here is that opposing big men are able to space themselves out behind the arc for a favorable shooting opportunity. The Aztecs, indeed, just lost their last game – at UNLV – largely because of UNLV power forward Keylan Boone’s 4-for-11 performance from deep.
San Diego State’s drop coverage against ball-screens also exposes it to the opponent’s mid-range game.
Boise State Can Take Advantage
Boise State owns the fourth-most efficient three-point attack in the Mountain West largely because of its bigs. Center O’Mar Stanley shoots 35.5 percent from deep in conference play. An efficient three-point shooter throughout his career, power forward Tyson Degenhart enters today’s game shooting 6-for-13 from deep in his team’s last four games.
Other players will likewise benefit from San Diego State’s tendency to allow a lot of three-point attempts because Boise State’s offense runs a lot of movement in order to generate open looks.
For example, the Broncos employ a lot of intricate-looking roll-and-replace type actions where a player will proceed from the perimeter to inside the arc and will then be replaced outside the arc by somebody who was in the paint.
When Boise State, for example, has the Aztecs in scramble mode as a consequence of their aggressiveness, expect 41-percent three-point shooter Chibuzo Agbo to get a lot of looks from deep. Agbo is also one of several Broncos scorers who are comfortable in the mid-range.
Boise State’s Mid-Range Defense
It’s hard to like San Diego State when you don’t like its defense to do well. Its offense is rather limited. The Aztecs, unlike their opponent tonight, shoot terribly from deep.
Instead, San Diego State loves to live in the mid-range. You’ll see players drive inside, or guys come off screens – curls, for example, – in order to create mid-range scoring opportunities.
However, Boise State’s defense offers good help, especially in the middle. You can see its game against Utah State, for example, where defenders are easily well-positioned inside the paint, making it a crowded and congested area.
Knowing the Aztecs’ specific proclivity for mid-range shooting, Boise State won’t allow their scorers to have room in their preferred areas, whereas Boise State will enjoy space and comfort on offense.
NCAAB Pick: Boise State +7.5 (-109) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.