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NCAAB Best Bets March 6: Minnesota Gophers Look Golden Against Indiana

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Top NCAAB Pick: Minnesota -5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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We have a nice NCAAB card for the final Wednesday of the regular season, including some minor conference early-round tournament matchups that you cash in at the top-rated online sportsbooks. After another winning 2-1 night last night, we are back with three more best bets we feel hold the most value tonight based on our NCAAB odds.

These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. That is the case with our first selection coming from the Atlantic 10 Conference, but we then follow that up with major conference matchups from the ACC and Big Ten.


George Mason Patriots vs. Rhode Island Rams

Wednesday, March 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ryan Center


We start in the Atlantic 10 where we anticipate a relatively high-scoring affair between George Mason and Rhode Island. Thus, we are betting on the Over in Kingston.

Can Have Success Beyond Arc

These teams had a shootout back in Fairfax on January 27th, with the Patriots prevailing 92-84. While this game tonight may not be quite that high scoring, we do still project a total output in the 150s, which would be good enough to clear this Over.

George Mason is above average in offensive efficiency at 110.5 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.9). Like the first meeting, they can again take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the country. Keep in mind also that the Patriots scored 92 points that game while having an off-3-point shooting night at just 7-for-22.

This is an above-average shooting team beyond the arc at 34.7%, so we look for a correcting effort there against Rhode Island’s 324th-ranked 3-point defense.

Terrible Defense

Defending the 3-point arc is not the only defensive issue for the Rams, as they are 313th in the country in defensive efficiency and 322nd in eFG% allowed. During conference play, URI is dead last in a 15-team conference in eFG% allowed, 2-point defense and turnover percentage forced, as well as 13th in 3-point defense. Thus, the Rams are allowing a disgusting 81.9 PPG inside the A-10.

However, Rhode Island does also have one advantage they can exploit offensively to stay in this game in 3-point shooting. The Rams hung around in the first meeting by shooting 13-for-27, 48.1% beyond the arc, and they are 55th in the county in 3-point shooting at 36.3%. And 3-point defense is also a weakness for George Mason at 272nd nationally.

The Pick

So, what we have here is a terrible overall defense for Rhode Island, a weak 3-point defense for George Mason and two teams that can hit threes. That sounds like a nice recipe for another Over between these squads Wednesday.

Predicted Score: George Mason 78 – Rhode Island 75

NCAAB Pick: Over 143 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Boston College Eagles vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Wednesday, March 06, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Watsco Center


Next, we venture into the ACC, where we look for Miami to take advantage of a giving Boston College defense and snap a 7-game losing streak with a safe home win in Coral Gables.

Buy Low

The Hurricanes’ 7-game skid has dropped them to 15-14 overall and 6-12 in conference. However, we think that sets up a nice “buy low” spot for Miami here being able to bet them at a manageable price in a game where they have some nice advantages in the 3-point and rebounding departments. In fact, if not for the losing streak, we profile Miami as a favorite here of between 7.5-8 points.

The Canes are above average in efficiency on both ends, grading out at 113.3 points per 100 possessions offensively and 104.2 per 100 defensively (national average 106.9). They are a good 52nd in eFG%, keyed by very good 3-point shooting at 37.1% (30th).

Tough Matchup

The Eagles have an identical record as Miami, both overall at 15-14 and inside the ACC at 6-12. However, this is a bad matchup for a Boston College defense that ranks 284th in eFG% allowed and a woeful 322nd in 3-point defense, contrary to Miami’s strengths on offense. Furthermore, they do not apply much pressure, ranking 222nd in defensive turnover percentage.

On offensive, Boston College does not figure to get many second opportunities, ranking 275th in offensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are above average on the defensive glass. And to top things off, the Eagles do not figure to add many cheap points at the foul line. That is because they are 334th in FTA/FGA ratio, while Miami simply does not foul, ranking fourth in the land in that metric defensively.

The Pick

This looks like a great spot for Miami to end the losing streak and unleash some frustrations on Boston College with a big win.

Predicted Score: Miami (FL) 83 – Boston College 72

NCAAB Pick: Miami (FL) -5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Indiana Hoosiers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Wednesday, March 06, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Williams Arena


We wrap things up in the Big Ten, where we are betting on the team with the best ATS record in the country in Minnesota at a reasonable price at home hosting Indiana.

Still Have Value?

The Golden Gophers may be only 18-11 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten, but the big story is their amazing 24-5 ATS record that leads the nation. Normally, something that anomalous tends to give value to the other side, but we do not think that is the case here for a team that is 16-3 at home with an average winning margin of +12.7 points.

Perhaps this matchup’s line is tempered by Minnesota losing two of their last three ATS after starting 23-3, but whatever the reason, we think the Gophers have value at this number. As has been a recurring theme with all three of our picks tonight, Minnesota is another good 3-point shooting team at 36.3% facing a team with a weak 3-point defense, where Indiana ranks 246th.

95th on Kenpom

Indiana began this season in the Kenpom Top 50, but they have disappointed at 16-13 and 8-10 in the conference and dropped all the way to 95th, 34 spots lower than #61 Minnesota. They are also 3-6 while getting outscored by an average of -7.0 points on the road.

If the Gophers have the 3-point success we expect tonight, we do not see the Hoosiers keeping pace while ranking only 259th in 3-point shooting themselves. They also do not figure to get many second chances, ranking 249th in offensive rebounding percentage, and for good measure, they are a poor foul-shooting team at 65.8% (342nd).

The Pick

Frankly this seems like a very cheap line, all things considered, so we are giving the moderate points with Minnesota Wednesday night.

Predicted Score: Minnesota 82 – Indiana 70

NCAAB Pick: Minnesota -5 (-110) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.