Top NCAAB Pick: South Florida -7.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The final Tuesday card of the NCAAB regular season also includes early-round conference tournament matchups from some minor conferences. And after another winning 2-1 day Sunday, we return with three more plays we show having nice betting value based on our NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences for you to cash in at top-rated online sportsbooks. Such is the case with all three of our best bets on Tuesday coming from mid-major regular season games. These picks do however include the team with the longest current winning streak in the nation.
Duquesne Dukes vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Tuesday, March 05, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Stuart C. Siegel Center
We begin in the Atlantic 10, where our early season pick to win the conference would have a chance at a 3-seed with a win tonight. That team is VCU, and we are betting on them to get it done with a covering home win over Duquesne.
Nice Recovery
The Rams started slowly this season as they were 8-7 after losing their first two conference games here at home. However, they have recovered nicely and are now 19-10 and fourth in the A-10 at 11-5, one game behind third-place Dayton with two games to go. Furthermore, they have not lost at home since dropping those first two A-10 games, winning their last six games in Richmond.
VCU’s calling card is defense, as they are 13th in the country in eFG% allowed, ranking 16th in 3-point defense (30.3%) and 39th in 2-point defense (46.5%). And they are allowing just 66.1 points per game on 40.1% shooting here at home. The Rams have also been good enough in offensive efficiency to support that defense, grading out at 110.1 points per 100 possessions (national average 107.0).
Worse on Both Ends
The Dukes come in at 18-11 but only 8-8 in the A-10, tied for seventh in the conference.
They are ranked an even 100th overall on Kenpom, 16 spots lower than 84th-ranked VCU, and they have a losing 4-6 record on the road. More importantly, we are not sure how they will generate much offense against the stout Rams defense.
Duquesne is 215th in the land in eFG% with their struggles extending to all points of the floor, ranking 216th in 3-point shooting and 186th in 2-point shooting. They also rank dead last in the conference in offensive efficiency during A-10 play at just 99.9 point per 100 possessions. Granted the Dukes have been decent defensively, ranking 63rd in eFG% allowed, but that is still not at a VCU level.
The Pick
It may have taken a while for VCU to find their form this season, but they seem to be peaking at the right time. We expect the Rams to safely win their seventh straight at home on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Virginia Commonwealth 70 – Duquesne 60
NCAAB Pick: Virginia Commonwealth -5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Ball State Cardinals
Tuesday, March 05, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Worthen Arena
We are bringing you some MAC-tion for our next best bet tonight. Kent State and Ball State are similar in that neither team plays good defense and both teams are effective beyond the 3-point are, so bet the Over in Muncie on Tuesday.
Inefficient Defenses
Their teams combined for 151 points in their first meeting, an 82-69 Kent State win at home, and we see a similar combined point-output here.
The Golden Flashes enter at 15-14 overall and a middling 8-8 inside the MAC, with shoddy defense holding them back. Kent ranks 255th in eFG% allowed and 212th in defensive efficiency.
Similarly, poor defense has held Ball State back even more, as the Cardinals are 14-15 overall and only 6-10 inside the conference. They are ranked 275th in defensive efficiency and 234th in eFG% allowed. Still, most concerning here is their 3-point defense, ranking 261st allowing a 35.1% success rate (national average 33.8%).
At Least They Hit Threes
That makes this a nice matchup for a Kent State offense that ranks 52nd in the country in 3-point shooting at 36.4%.
Furthermore, that rate rises to 37.4% during conference play, second best inside the MAC. In fact, the Flashes are fourth during MAC play in offensive efficiency at 110.3 points per 100 possessions. 3-point shooting is also what has prevented the Ball State record from being worse than it already is.
The Cardinals actually rank slightly higher than Kent in that area, reporting home 43rd nationally at 36.6%. That has helped produce a slightly above average eFG% of 50.9% (national average 50.5%). The Cards are also excellent at the foul line, ranking 18th in free-throw shooting.
The Pick
So, with two weak defenses and two good 3-point shooting teams, look for another Over between these teams Tuesday just like their first meeting.
Predicted Score: Kent State 79 – Ball State 74
NCAAB Pick: Over 142 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tulane Green Wave vs. South Florida Bulls
Tuesday, March 05, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Yuengling Center
We wrap up in the AAC, where South Florida quietly owns the longest winning streak in the country right now at 14. We are looking for a 15th straight win in emphatic fashion Tuesday over a Tulane team that has lost six straight games.
Best Defense in AAC
The Bulls are 22-5 and they have clinched the top seed in the AAC Tournament at 15-1.
They have not lost since dropping a 4-point decision on the road 75-71 at UAB in their second conference game back on January 7th. They are a perfect 8-0 at home during conference play, and while they have been above average in offensive efficiency, it is the defense that has fueled the South Florida’s success.
USF ranks 35th nationally in eFG%, but they have been especially impenetrable during conference play. The Bulls lead the American in each of the four main defensive metrics: eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, 3-point defense and 2-point defense.
And for good measure, South Florida also leads the AAC in 3-point shooting offensively at a sizzling 38.9%.
Opposite Direction
While the Bulls have been blazing hot, the Green Wave have been the polar opposite.
Tulane’s 6-game losing streak has dropped them to 13-15 overall and to 13th in the 14-team American at 4-12. This certainly does not look like a team capable of slowing down the freight train that is South Florida right now.
It does not help that Tulane plays small with their tallest player at 6’8” and no other player in the regular rotation taller than 6’6”. This has resulted in the Green Wave being one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, ranking 359th out of 362 teams in Division I in offensive rebounding percentage and 331st defensively.
The Pick
Thus, besides the obvious matchup advantages for South Florida, they also figure to dominate in the second-chances department. Therefore, we are betting the Bulls to win by double digits for this 15th straight victory.
Predicted Score: South Florida 86 – Tulane 72
NCAAB Pick: South Florida -7.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
