NCAAB Pick: Nebraska -8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The penultimate Sunday of the NCAA Basketball regular season brings some meaningful matchups, especially for the final day of the Missouri Valley Conference season. And after going 2-1 our last time in this space Wednesday, we return with three more best bets for the Sunday matchups.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. That is the case with two of our best bets coming in Missouri Valley regular-season finales, but we wrap things up with a major prime-time battle from the Big Ten. Our action starts early at 2:00 PM ET.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Sunday, March 03, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Banterra Center
In our first Missouri Valley matchup, the winner will have a chance at a 4-seed and a First Round bye in the MVC Tournament that starts Thursday. We are looking for Southern Illinois to get that chance with a covering home win over Northern Iowa Sunday.
Advantage Inside
These two teams enter the final day of the MVC season as part of a 3-way tie with Belmont for fourth in the conference. If Belmont loses Sunday, the winner of this game gets the 4-seed and first-round bye. If Belmont wins, the bye goes to whoever finishes with the higher NET rating between they and the winner of this game.
The Salukis enter at 19-11 and they are the slightly higher-ranked Kenpom team here at 112th compared to 120th for UNI. It also helps to be home, where Southern Illinois is 13-4 with an average winning margin of +10.2 points. Most importantly SIU can exploit a nice advantage inside where they are 42nd in the country in 2-point shooting at 54.3% while Northern Iowa ranks 259th in 2-point defense.
No Second Chances
The Panthers come in at 17-13 and they have a losing record of 5-8 on the road. What is most interesting about Northern Iowa, though, is their rebounding slits. You see, UNI leads the entire country in defensive rebounding percentage, while at the same time ranking 321st in offensive rebounding percentage.
Well, while the Panthers are demons on the defensive glass, that advantage gets negated somewhat by the expected success of the Southern Illinois shooters inside the 3-point arc. That should result in fewer defensive rebounds to be had. On the flip side, the poor offensive rebounding is more critical, as that means getting very few second chances while facing a better shooting team.
As long as Southern Illinois has the shooting success we expect from 2-point range, overriding the Northern Iowa prowess on the defensive glass, we are looking for a safe Salukis win at home.
Predicted Score: Southern Illinois 75 – Northern Iowa 67
NCAAB Pick: Southern Illinois -3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Bradley Braves vs. Drake Bulldogs
Sunday, March 03, 2024 – 03:30 PM at The Knapp Center
In our second play in the Valley, Drake still has an outside chance for a 1-seed, and we are betting on the Bulldogs to cover the moderate spread against a Bradley team that is locked into its 3-seed.
Undefeated at Home
Granted, although Drake is 24-6, they need a minor miracle to gain the 1-seed coming in one game back of Indiana State atop the MVC at 15-4. So, besides a win here, the Bulldogs would need Indiana State to get upset by Murray State and to pass the Sycamores in the NET ratings. Nonetheless, at least Drake is the only team here with a chance to improve its seeding.
More importantly, Drake has a chance to end the season undefeated at home, where they enter at 15-0 with a huge average winning margin of +17.2 points. And besides being dominant at home, the Bulldogs are far superior here at ball protection, which becomes more important with these teams close metrically in other areas. Drake is 18th nationally in turnover percentage at just 14.2%.
More Turnovers
The Braves enter at 21-9 overall, but this is essentially a meaningless game for them as they are locked into third in the conference at 13-6 regardless of this outcome. And remember Bradley already lost at home to Drake 74-67 on February 10th, and they are ranked 13 spots lower than the Bulldogs on Kenpom at 68th overall.
As mentioned, their teams are very close overall in all Kenpom components except turnovers. Where Drake has excelled in protecting the ball, Bradley is a sloppy 227th in turnover percentage at 17.8%. The Bears are also passive in not drawing fouls ranking 308th in FTA/FGA ratio. That is indicative of a team settling for perimeter shots,
Even with the top seed being a longshot, the chance for Drake to finish undefeated and their expected turnover advantage is enough for us to bank on a handy victory.
Predicted Score: Drake 80 – Bradley 71
NCAAB Pick: Drake -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Sunday, March 03, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena
We wrap things up with a nationally televised Big Ten matchup, where we expect Nebraska to continue their home domination with a double-digit win over Rutgers in Lincoln.
Undefeated at Home in Big Ten
The Cornhuskers are 20-9 and ranked 36th overall on Kenpom. However, they are only 10-8 in the conference due to their severe home/away splits, as they are a perfect 9-0 at home and 1-8 on the road in the Big Ten. And it is not as if they are beating cupcakes in this building, with the perfect home conference mark including wins over Kenpm #2 Purdue, #20 Michigan State and #23 Wisconsin.
Nebraska has been good defensively, ranking 29th in the county in efficiency and 26th in eFG% allowed, but the biggest key to their success has been the 3-point shooting offensively. The Huskers rank a decent 74th in the country beyond the arc at 35.8%, but that percentage shoots up to 38.2% during conference play.
Poor Shooting
The Scarlet Knights are just 15-13 overall, 7-10 inside the conference and ranked 90th on Kenpom. Granted, Rutgers is fourth in the country in defensive efficiency, but they are better at defending 2-pointers (24th) than defending 3-pointers (62nd). Thus, we do not look for the Cornhuskers’ sharpshooters from beyond the arc to be slowed too much.
And we certainly do not expect the inept Rutgers offense to keep pace. The Knights rank 275th in offensive efficiency and a disgusting 355th out of 362 Division I teams in eFG% at 44.2% (national average 50.5%). And they are even 329th from the free throw line at 66.8%.
Given that lacking Rutgers offense, look for Nebraska to stay undefeated at home inside the Big Ten in a potential blowout on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Nebraska 73 – Rutgers 60
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska -8 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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