Top NCAAB Pick: Illinois -1 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have arrived at the final day of the NCAA Basketball regular season, meaning we are just one week removed from Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament. And we are here as usual with best bets for this final day of matchups that we feel hold the most betting value.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. That is the case with our first two selections coming from the AAC, but we then close out our regular season with a primetime matchup from the Big Ten.
SMU Mustangs vs. UAB Blazers
Sunday, March 10, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Bartow Arena
Our first AAC matchup involves two teams whose shooting splits differ in conference from their overall numbers. We are backing UAB at home over SMU on Sunday.
Better Shooting Inside AAC
This is a battle for fourth place in the conference, with both teams coming in tied at 11-6. UAB enters at 19-11 overall and the Blazers are a good 75th in the country in offensive efficiency at 112.8 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.4). The strength of this team is offensive rebounding, where they rank 21st in the land at 35.4%.
All those second chances have compensated for a slightly below-average eFG% of exactly 50.0% (national average 50.5%). However, that is a bit deceptive as the Blazers faced a good non-conference slate that was relatively tough to score on. UAB has shot better during AAC play, climbing above the national average in eFG% (51.3%), 2-point shooting (51.4%) and 3-point shooting (34.0%).
Offense Exposed in Conference
SMU enters at 20-10 overall, although they have a losing record on the road of 5-6. And while the Mustangs are above average in eFG% overall at 51.2%, they have the opposite profile of UAB in terms of shooting. They faced some giving defenses out of conference, and their percentages have dropped during conference play.
In fact, their eFG% drops all the way down to 49.3% inside the AAC, ranking 11th in the conference. And they are below average in conference play in 3-point shooting (32.2%) and 2-point shooting (49.8%). This is also a team that settles for perimeter shots without drawing many fouls, ranking 299th nationally and 11th inside the AAC in FTA/FGA ratio.
So with UAB being the better shooting team in AAC play and SMU having a losing record on the road, bet the Blazers at -108 betting odds in Birmingham on Sunday.
Predicted Score: UAB 78 – SMU 72
NCAAB Pick: UAB -1 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Temple Owls vs. UTSA Roadrunners
Sunday, March 10, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at UTSA Convocation Center
For our second AAC play, we are backing the road underdogs from Temple visiting UTSA, where an outright Owls win would create a logjam at the bottom of the conference.
Slow Pace
Granted, the Owls come in dead last in the conference at 4-13 and 11-19 overall, but that still leaves them just one game behind 5-12 UTSA. If Temple pulls off the mild upset here, the AAC season would end with a 5-way tie at the bottom of the conference at 5-13, creating a bit of havoc with the seeding process for the AAC Tournament.
We are betting on the Owls to indeed create that havoc when facing one of the worst defenses in the country, as UTSA is ranked 335th in defensive efficiency allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions. And while we acknowledge that Temple is poor offensively ranking 343rd overall and 14th in the AAC in eFG%, UTSA also ranks poorly at 266th overall and 12th in conference.
So, in a game with two bad shooting teams, the expected Temple turnover advantage becomes huge, and the Owls also play slow, ranking 244th in Tempo Rating. That is always a nice trait for an underdog.
No Pressure from Defense
UTSA comes in with an identical 11-19 record, but their lack of pressure defensively gives Temple the biggest stylistic advantage in a game where most other components are similarly ugly for both teams.
You see, the biggest strength for Temple has been ball protection, which has been a key in maintaining their long possessions. The Owls are 38th in the country in turnover percentage at 14.5%, and we do not see the Roadrunners causing much disruption with a defense ranked 347th in turnovers forced at just 13.4%.
In a game between two inefficient offenses, we look for Temple to be able to run their offense basically unabated making the difference in an outright upset.
Predicted Score: Temple 74 – UTSA 72
NCAAB Pick: Temple +4 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Sunday, March 10, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena
We wrap things up in primetime in the Big Ten. Illinois is a Top 10 team on Kenpom, and we expect the Fighting Illini to flex their muscles with a season-ending road win at Iowa.
Ranked 10th on Kenpom
The Illini are 22-8 overall yet remain 10th on Kenpom despite those eight losses. That is what happens when you are locked into a 2-seed in the Big Ten behind Kenpom #3 Purdue, which the Illini are at 13-6. Seven of the eight losses for Illinois have come to Top 50 teams, with the one outlier being a one-point road loss at #82 Penn State.
Illinois has one of the best offenses in the country, ranking fourth in efficiency, and they have been particularly dangerous closer to the basket ranking 28th in 2-point offense at 54.9% (national average 50.3%). We can easily see the Illini scoring 90 points here vs. an Iowa team that often treats defense as an afterthought.
Worse Defense
The Hawkeyes enter at 18-12 and 10-9 in Big Ten play. However, they have had just one win all season vs. a Kenpom Top 20 team in #19 Michigan State, so this would be their best win all year if they can pull it off. But, while the offense can keep pace with Illinois ranking ninth in efficiency and 61st in eFG%, we see the Iowa defense as their downfall.
The Hawkeyes rank 165th nationally in defensive efficiency and 261st in eFG% allowed at 52.0%, and they give up a ton of second chances ranking 265th in defensive rebounding percentage. Furthermore, Iowa ranks dead last during Big Ten play in eFG% allowed at a generous 53.6% while also ranking dead last in conference in defensive rebounding percentage.
While we concede that Iowa has a big home-court advantage, we think Illinois can silence the crowd here by making a ton of shots with more second chances to make them, so bet the Fighting Illini on the road.
Predicted Score: Illinois 91 – Iowa 85
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -1 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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