Top NCAAB Pick: Mississippi State -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Tuesday NCAA Basketball card brings us a nice offering of 31 matchups. As usual, we are here with our three best bets on the slate we feel hold the best value for you to cash at top-rated online sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Based on our NCAAB odds, that is true for two of our plays Tuesday hailing from the MAC and Mountain West conferences, although our third best bet is a marquee SEC matchup.
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Stroh Center
We start the Tuesday card with some MAC-tion, where we are betting on shoddy defense from both Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio to lead to an Over at the Stroh Center.
No Pressure
The Falcons are a nice 17-10, but they only sit fifth in the MAC at 8-6.
While Bowling Green is not renowned for their offense, they are averaging a commendable 80.7 points per game at home. Those games are averaging a combined 151.9 points. That latter figure would safely clear this Over. It is also noteworthy these teams combined for 151 points at Miami on January 16th.
BGSU struggles defensively, ranking 213th in efficiency and 220th in eFG% allowed.
This is also a defense that applies virtually no pressure, ranking a dismal 278th in turnover percentage forced. That passiveness on defense allowed Miami to hang around in the 78-73 win last month and it should allow the RedHawks more good looks tonight.
Allow Too Many Second Chances
Miami has a losing overall record of 13-14, but they are only one game behind Bowling Green inside the MAC at 7-7. The RedHawks are above average in eFG% at 52.3% (national average 50.4%), mainly due to excellent 3-point shooting, where they are 24th in the land at 37.3%.
However, like the Falcons, the RedHawks have issues defensively, where they are 233rd in efficiency at 109,1 points per 100 possessions allowed.
The main reason for that has been allowing far too many second chances, ranking 241st in defensive rebounding percentage. That allowed BGSU to gain 10 offensive rebounds in the first meeting, which may have been a deciding factor in a 5-point game.
The Pick
So, the combination of two bad defenses, Bowling Green being better offensively at home and Miami’s good 3-point shooting has us backing the Over Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green 81 – Miami-Ohio 74
NCAAB Pick: Over 145.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Humphrey Coliseum
Next, we go to the SEC for perhaps the best game of the night. While Kentucky is hot offensively, we look for a potential letdown and for the stiff Mississippi State defense to result in a Bulldogs covering win.
Alabama Hangover?
The Wildcats come in 19-8 and fifth in the conference at 9-5. Kentucky also just scored 117 points while knocking off an Alabama team ranked seventh on Kenpom.
They currently lead the country in 3-point shooting at a blazing 41.0%. However, we feel this is a terrible letdown spot for the freshmen-driven Wildcats, coming off that huge win and now facing a great defense on the road.
We even have a recent precedent here.
You see, Kentucky went on the road and upset the Kenpom #5 team Auburn on February 17th, and then let down badly the next game, losing to 89th ranked LSU. We are expecting some déjà vu here, except this time the follow-up game after the huge win is against a better opponent.
Elite 3-Point Defense
Mississippi State is 19-8 and 8-6 in the SEC, but they are metrically better than that grading out at 27th overall on Kenpom, not far behind #17 Kentucky.
The Bulldogs are also 11-2 at home, where their defense is allowing just 65.2 points per game on 40.2% shooting. Now, MSU is not bad offensively, ranking 72nd in efficiency at 112.9 points per 100 possessions. Yet, they are elite defensively. The Bulldogs rank 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency and 23rd in eFG^% allowed.
However, most importantly, they are fourth in 3-point defense at just 28.3%. This makes them one of the few teams capable of containing the Wildcats’ perimeter shooters.
The Pick
So, with this being a letdown spot for a young Kentucky team and the Mississippi State defense equipped to slow the Wildcats even under normal circumstances, bet the Bulldogs at home.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 83 – Kentucky 76
NCAAB Pick: Mississippi State -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Colorado State Rams
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Moby Arena
As is starting to become a weeknight tradition for us, we wrap things up with a Mountain West home favorite. We are betting Colorado State to post a double-digit win over Nevada in Fort Collins.
Great Offense at Home
The Rams are 20-8, and although they have slipped to 8-7 in the conference after three road losses in the last four games, they remain the second-highest-ranked MWC team on Kenpom at #29.
Like much of the conference, Colorado State has been beastly at home, going 14-1 while averaging 81.9 points per game and shooting a scintillating 52.3% from the floor.
The Rams are 25th in the country in eFG% at 55.0% and they have been practically unstoppable near the basket, ranking 10th in 2-point shooting at a rousing 57.5%. Let us not overlook a defense that ranks 25th in efficiency at 97.4 points per 100 possessions allowed.
Can They Beat Top Team on Road?
The Wolf Pack is 22-6 overall and 9-5 in the MWC, but they have yet to beat a team rated as high as Colorado Stare on Kenpom on the road.
Nevada also does not expect to get many second opportunities, ranking 215th in the land in offensive rebounding percentage. This should make it even harder to keep up with a Rams’ offense that has been so prolific in Fort Collins.
Now granted, Nevada has a better road record than most Mountain teams at 6-3.
However, upon further review, besides their best road win at 42nd-ranked Utah State, the other five victories have all come from visiting teams ranked 75th or worse on Kenpom. This is not to mention how the altitude of Fort Collins affects road teams.
The Pick
Add in Colorado State probably being in an ornery mood after three recent road losses and look for the Rams to release some frustration on Nevada now returning home.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 79 – Nevada 65
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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