
Top NCAAB Pick: VCU -5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

We have reached the end of another NCAA Basketball week with a decent selection of 22 games on the main board Sunday. As usual, we are here with our three picks on the card that we feel hold the best betting value.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have two mid-major best bets Sunday from the AAC and the Atlantic 10, but we wrap things up with a major prime-time battle in the Big Ten.
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Memphis Tigers
Sunday, February 25, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at FedExForum
We start the day early at 2:00 PM in the AAC, where we are betting on a rare road favorite at a cheap price. Florida Atlantic has made a smooth transition to the AAC, and we are backing them to prevail at Memphis.
Second Chance Domination
The Owls made a run to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament last season. They have followed that up by going 21-6 so far this year while relishing their new surroundings, sitting second in the American at 11-3. They are also the highest-ranked AAC team on Kenpom at 33rd overall.
FAU is an excellent shooting team ranked 13th in the country in offensive efficiency and 24th in eFG%. But an added factor for the Owls here is their expected domination of the offensive glass. That is because they are also 39th in the land in offensive rebounding percentage at 34.2% (national average 29.1%), while Memphis is a woeful 326th defensively.
Sloppy with the Ball
The Tigers come in at 19-8 overall and sixth in the conference at 8-6, and they are ranked nearly 50 spots lower than FAU on Kenpom at 81st. Yes, the Tigers are 11-2 at home, but other than a 2-point win against #24 Clemson out of conference, they have not beaten much.
Now, the Tigers are not a bad offensive team themselves, ranking 72nd in efficiency and 74th in eFG%, although those numbers still pale next to FAU. Plus, Memphis has been sloppy with the basketball ranking 284th in turnover percentage. And that is not to mention the expected dominance by the Owls on the offensive boards making the disparity look even bigger.
So while we are not huge fans of laying points on the road, the talent and tactical advantages for Florida Atlantic have us doing so at a small price in Memphis.
Predicted Score: Florida Atlantic 84 – Memphis 77
NCAAB Pick: Florida Atlantic -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Saint Joseph’s Hawks vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Sunday, February 25, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Stuart C. Siegel Center
Next, we move to the Atlantic 10, where VCU is starting to flex a bit after a slow start. We are betting on the Rams to continue their upward trajectory with a safe covering home win against Saint Joseph’s.
Elite Defense
VCU is 17-9, but they began the year at 8-7 and have since gone 9-2 with both losses coming to teams in the Kenpom Top 100. We predicted the Rams to be contenders to win the A-10 at the start of the season, and this hot streak now has them up to fourth at 9-4. No matter where they finish the regular season though, this now looks like a team nobody wants to face in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
The Rams are above average in offensive efficiency at 108.3 points per 100 possessions, but it is their defense that sets them apart from the rest of the conference. VCU is eighth in the entire nation in eFG% allowed while ranking 18th in raw FG% allowed at only 40.1% and 38th in points against at 66.2 PPG.
3-Point Slippage
The Hawks enter at 17-10 but they are only 7-7 in conference play while ranking 117th on Kenpom, nearly 30 spots lower than VCU (88th). And they have not been great on the road, going 3-7 while allowing a disturbing 79.6 PPG. That gets magnified here with the offense not expected to come close to its road scoring average of 76.8 points.
Saint Joseph’s is not bad offensively ranking 47th in eFG%, their strength being 3-point shooting. However, while the Hawks are 56th in the country beyond the arc at 36.2%, they took advantage of some weak perimeter defenses during non-conference play and that rate has slipped to 35.2% in the A-10. Now, they must contend with the Rams’ 3-point defense ranked ninth nationally (29.1%).
So, with VCU now looking like the team we expected at the start of the year and with their defense expected to contain Saint Joseph’s, lay the spot with the Rams at home at -110 betting odds.
Predicted Score: VCU 75 – Saint Joseph’s 65
NCAAB Pick: VCU -5 (-110) at Bovada
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Sunday, February 25, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena
We conclude with perhaps the best game of the day in the Big Ten. While Minnesota has been the best ATS team in the country, Nebraska has been dominant at home, and we expect that to continue with a big Cornhuskers win.
Undefeated at Home in Big Ten
Nebraska is 19-8 overall although they are only 9-7 in conference. The big story for the Huskers though has been their home/away disparity. They are 16-1 at home in Lincoln, including a perfect 8-0 inside the Big Ten, with the only home loss coming to a Creighton team now ranked 10th overall on Kenpom.
The Huskers are deadly from beyond the 3-point arc ranking 55th nationally at 36.2%. However, that percentage has been even better inside the conference at 39.2%. That sharp shooting has led to beating four teams in this building ranked in the Kenpom Top 50, with two of those being Top 20 in #2 Purdue and #17 Michigan State.
Average Perimeter Defense
Minnesota is outside of that Top 50 at 65th overall while entering at 17-9 overall and 8-7 in the Big Ten. Most notable about the Gophers this season though is owning the best ATS record in the country at 23-3. However, this is a case where that may be serving to give us line value, keeping this line reasonable for a great home team like Nebraska.
And that ATS record seems a bit fluky for a Gophers team that is good but not elite in any particular area, which lines up more with their 65th ranking than their unsustainable ATS mark. And the biggest key here is their 3-point defense is exactly as the national average of 33.8% allowed, which we do not think is good enough to contain Nebraska’s perimeter shooters, especially in Lincoln.
So despite Minnesota’s unbelievable ATS record, we are bucking that trend with a chance to bet on a dominant home team like Nebraska at a reasonable price.
Predicted Score: Nebraska 82 – Minnesota 70
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska -6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.