MLB Pick: Twins (+138) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have reached the Divisional Series of the MLB Playoffs with all four series kicking off Saturday, and we are here with our best bets in three of the games.
Remember these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. We have one such value underdog for Game 1, as well as one run line and one total.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 04:45 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The Twins surprised many by naming Bailey Ober the Game 1 starter. However, he has a rested hot bullpen supporting him, and we are backing Minnesota to pull the upset visiting Justin Verlander and the Astros.
Effective Enough
Ober was effective enough this season, going 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA, although that was accompanied by a 4.20 xFIP with Ober scoring high in the Luck stats with a 79.1% strand rate and a .278 BABIP allowed. Still, he did have a legitimately great K/BB ratio of 9.10/1,81 per 9 and his 13.8% swinging strike rate was a career-best in his third Major League season.
Also, every team that plays Saturday has the benefit of a fresh bullpen as all had sweeps in the Wild Card round, providing two days off before Game 1. That benefits the Twins more in this matchup as their bullpen has the third-best xFIP in baseball since September 1st at 3.51, and the second-best of all remaining playoff teams behind only the Dodgers.
Not What He Was
We have been burned several times this season betting against Verlander as he finished 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA for the Mets and Astros combined, but the fact remains that he had a bloated 4.56 xFIP, which is noticeably worse than Ober in this matchup, with his strikeout rate way down from just last year to 7.98 K/9 from 9.51 and his walk rate up a full batter per game to 2.49 BB/9 from 1.49.
Justin’s velocity was down to 94.4 MPH from 95.1, and his soft-contact rate was down nearly 5% to 16.8% from 21.3% while his hard-contact rate rose a bit to 30.7% from 29.4%. So in short, despite the record and ERA and the fact that Verlander will probably be in the Hall of Fame, underlying metrics suggest the 40-year-old had major slippage this season after winning the Cy Young Award at 39 last year.
Add in the Houston bullpen ranking 14th in xFIP since September 1st at 4.22, the second worst among remaining playoff teams ahead of only the Diamondbacks, and the Twins appear to present great value at this underdog price.
Predicted Score: Twins 5 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Twins (+138) at BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 06:07 PM EDT at Truist Park
In what looks to be a humongous pitching mismatch, we are backing Spencer Strider and the Braves on the run line hosting a seemingly overmatched Ranger Suarez and the Phillies.
Best Pitcher in Baseball?
With the Braves earning a bye by posting the best record in baseball, they have the luxury of starting their ace in Game 1 here, and we have Strider rated as the best pitcher in baseball after being the only 20-game winner this year at 20-5 while leading the world with an obscene strikeout rate of 13.55 K/9.
Ironically, Strider may be only the third choice to win the National League Cy Young Award due to his 3.86 ERA, but we are not too concerned about that given the 2.93 xFIP. Spencer can hit triple-digits on the radar gun, averaging 97.4 MPH overall this year, and he combines the heater with a lethal slider that can make him seem unhittable at times.
Outclassed
Conversely, the Phillies used their two stud pitchers in the Wild Card Series and are now forced to turn to Suarez, who finished 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 4.05 xFIP. While Suarez had a good enough strikeout rate of 8.57 K/9, that got counteracted by a high 3.46 BB/9 walk rate, and his 34.0% hard-contact rate was up nearly 9% from 25.2% last year.
To make matters worse, the southpaw Ranger allowed 10 earned runs over 11.1 innings in his last two starts and he must now contend with an Atlanta offense that led the majors in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching this year at a potent 131.
As you might expect, the Braves’ money line carries a heavy price tag with a pitching mismatch this large, but we have no issues laying the 1.5 runs and betting the Atlanta run line at very reasonable betting odds.
Predicted Score: Braves 6 – Phillies 3
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (-101) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 09:20 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
We are not as high on Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks as the general market is, and even Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers has not looked the same since returning from injury, so we are betting the Over in Los Angeles this Saturday.
Deceptive ERA
Kelly finished 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA, but he struggled with command at times as indicated by a noticeably worse 3.84 xFIP. In fact, his high walk rate of 3.50 BB/9 was a career-worst since entering the Major Leagues in 2019 after pitching in Korea for several years.
He is facing a Dodgers offense ranked third in baseball in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at 117, the same Dodgers team that roughed up Merrill for seven earned runs on 12 hits plus three walks in five innings the last time he faced them on August 29th. He also cannot rely on support from an Arizona bullpen that has the worst xFIP of any remaining playoff team since September 1st at 4.32.
Still Injured?
Kershaw looked like the future Hall of Famer that he is to start the season, but he then spent about six weeks on the injured list and has not seemed fully recovered since his return despite a 2.23 ERA that is largely the result of a 100% (yes that is right) strand rate.
Before going on the injured list, Clayton was 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, a K/BB ratio of 9.91/2.27 per 9 and an average velocity of 91.3 MPH. Since returning on August 10th, he has the aforementioned luck-aided 2.23 ERA but with a 4.31 xFIP, a 7.93/3.96 K/BB ratio, and an alarming average velocity of 89.4 MPH.
With Kershaw clearly not the same and with his perfect strand rate since returning unsustainable, as well as the expected success of the Dodgers offense vs. Kelly and the Arizona pen, bet the Over Saturday night.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 7 – Diamondbacks 5
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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