MLB Pick: Blue Jays-Twins Under 7.5 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Two upsets by the Rangers and Diamondbacks respectively highlighted Day 1 of the 2023 MLB Playoffs while the favorites took care of business in the other two Game 1s. Now, all eight Wild Card teams play their Game 2s on Wednesday.
We have best bets on three of the matchups, and as usual, these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model. Today’s bets include two value totals as well as a favorite that we expect to complete a series sweep.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 – 04:38 PM EDT at Target Field
Much like the Twins’ 3-1 victory yesterday, runs should be at a premium again this Wednesday, so we are betting the Under with Sonny Gray taking on former Twin Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays.
Don’t Believe the Record
Gray somehow finished only 8-8 pitching for a division winner despite finishing with a 2.79 ERA, and while his xFIP was a bit higher at 3.65, even that figure is good enough to merit better than a .500 record. Gray has a good strikeout rate of 8.95 K/9 and he kept balls in the yard with a very good 47.3% groundball rate and a low 0.35 HR/9 allowed.
Furthermore, Sonny was one of the better pitchers in baseball during the month of September, again despite going just 1-2 over four starts, as he posted a 2.00 ERA for the month with a terrific ratio of 27 strikeouts vs. 4 walks in 27 innings. Considering we are backing the Under, we would not mind the status quo here with Gray again pitching well without getting much run support.
Feels Like Home?
Berrios has a history of pitching much better at home than on the road, and it was the same story this year with a 3.30 ERA and 3.85 xFIP at home vs. a 3.97 ERA and 4.12 xFIP on the road, but that gets alleviated somewhat here as a former Twin that is quite familiar with the ballpark and with much of the Minnesota lineup.
Also, similar to Gray, Berrios was very good in September despite a 2-2 record over five starts, posting a 3.47 ERA with a more telling 2.78 xFIP, keyed by a great ratio of his own with 38 strikeouts vs. 6 walks over 31.2 September innings.
So with both pitchers entering this contest at close to peak form, look for another Under in Minnesota at +102 betting odds, for Game 2.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Blue Jays 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+102) at Heritage Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 – 07:08 PM EDT at American Family Field
In a matchup of two pitchers that each seemed to wear down late in the year, we expect a higher-scoring game than the total indicates and are backing the Over with Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks visiting Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.
Phony Cy Young Candidate?
Now, we were always fans of Gallen before this season as he had the Sabermetric profile of a pitcher deserving way more than the 22 career wins that he had entering the year. However, it now appears that the Karma Gods are evening things out as he is a Cy Young candidate in a season where his metrics are actually not as good as in past years.
Zac finished 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, which in the end actually lined up with his 3.49 xFIP. However, it is how he got to that point that is concerning, as he was overachieving with an ERA around 3.00 before limping home with a 4.93 ERA over his last seven starts, with his K/BB ratio of 8.79/2.79 per 9 in those starts noticeably worse than his overall ratio for the season of 9.43/2.01 per 9, and this is after a career-high log of 210.0 innings pitched.
Velocity Dip
We thought Peralta was a candidate for a breakout season when he began the year with the best velocity of his career, and while he did have a great strikeout rate of 11.41 K/9, he finished just 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA that was worse than last season (3.58). although his xFIP was better this year at 3.42.
However, like Gallen, Freddy seemed to wear down at the end of the year, coinciding with a sharp drop in velocity, which averaged 94.6 MPH through the end of August but then 93.8 MPH through five September starts and ending with a season-low 93.5 MPH in his final start. On this start, he was roughed up for four earned runs on a disturbing nine hits in just three innings.
So with neither pitcher ending the season particularly well, bet the Over in Milwaukee in Game 2 Wednesday at the top sportsbooks.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Brewers 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 – 08:08 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
This series probably would have been more competitive if Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez were not both injured and out of the Marlins rotation, but instead, we are looking for the Phillies to complete the two-game sweep Wednesday with Aaron Nola taking on Braxton Garrett.
Tough Matchup
Garrett did have his best Major League season at 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 3.42 xFIP, but he is legitimately Miami’s fourth starter and is now tasked with trying to keep the season alive in a tougher matchup than he would normally have both with his mound opponent and the lineup he is facing.
You see, besides facing a pitcher in Nola that can be a co-ace when he is on his game, Braxton must also contend with a Philadelphia lineup that not only was better vs. lefties like Garret this year than vs. righties, with a wRC+ of 106 against southpaws, but the Phillies have also obliterated him in the past, with current Phils owning a collective1.036 OPS against him.
Better Than the ERA
Nola had a down year by his standards at 12-9 with an uncharacteristic 4.46 ERA, but he did have a considerably better 3.63 xFIP while maintaining his typically good K/BB ratio of 9.39/2.09 per 9, and he still induced lots of groundballs with his 12-to-6 curveball with a 42.6% groundball rate.
Aaron also closed the season with peak command, posting 23 strikeouts vs. 1 walk in his last four outings, allowing two earned runs or less his last three starts, and he is facing a Miami lineup ranked 21st in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at a well below average 91.
With the Phillies having decided edges, both on the mound and at the plate, lay the odds with Philadelphia to end this series in Game 2.
Predicted Score: Phillies 5 – Marlins 3
MLB Pick: Phillies (-155) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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