MLB Pick: Astros ML (-122) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Both League Championship Series are still ongoing Monday with the Diamondbacks/Phillies playing Game 6 with Philadelphia leading the series 3-2 and the Rangers/Astros playing a winner-take-all Game 7, and we have three best bets at the top sportsbooks in the two games.
These are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
According to the MLB betting odds, we have no value dogs on Monday, but we have value plays on both totals and one modest favorite.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, October 23, 2023 – 05:07 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We expect a low-scoring game in a twilight-starting game in Philadelphia with Phillies stud Aaron Nola facing Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, so we are backing the Under in Game 6.
Ace #2
While Zack Wheeler is officially the ace of this staff after Nola posted an uncharacteristic 4.46 ERA during the regular season, the latter is showing why he was the ace the last several years and would still be the ace for most other staffs right now with his brilliance during the post-season.
Not that Nola was as bad as his ERA during the season as he had a better 3.63 xFIP as well as a good K/BB ratio of 9.39/2.09 per 9 and a 42.6% groundball rate. But Aaron has been vintage Nola in three playoff starts going 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 9.16/0.96 K/BB ratio, and 57.4% groundball rate, including tossing six scoreless innings and allowing just three hits in Game 2 of this series.
Shadows, Earlier Hook Helps
While Nola does not need any help, Kelly may better benefit from the early inning shadows with this twilight starting time. Putting that aside, Kelly had a nice season going 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA, although his xFIP was a bit higher at 3.83. Still, he did combine a nice strikeout rate of 9.47 K/9 with a good 45.2% groundball rate.
Kelly also pitched great in his first playoff start, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers before getting nicked up for four runs in 5.2 innings in Game 2 of this series. However, he still had six strikeouts and allowed only three hits in that start, but a recurring theme in this series between that start and both Zac Gallen starts is they were fine the first two times through the Phillies lineup and struggled the third time through.
The Pick
With no room for error down 3-2 in the series, we will assume Arizona Manager Torey Lovullo is smart enough to pull Kelly when Kyle Schwarber comes up for the third time, and that plus Nola’s excellence in the playoffs has us betting the Under Monday.
Predicted Score: Phillies 4 – Diamondbacks 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-111) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Monday, October 23, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Interestingly the road team has won all six games of this series so far, but we look for that trend to end in the most important game of all and are betting Cristian Javier and the homestanding Astros as moderate favorites over Max Scherzer and the Rangers.
At His Peak
Javier had a disappointing season despite his 10-5 record as it came with a 4.56 ERA and 5.16 xFIP. This after posting a 2.54 ERA and 3.53 xFIP last season. However, he was injured during the year and finished the regular season well allowing three runs or less in five of his last six starts.
And that momentum has carried over into two excellent playoff starts over which he has allowed a total of two runs and only four hits in 10.2 innings with 12 strikeouts. Then again, Cristian is no stranger to playoff success with a career 6-1 record and 2.08 ERA in post-season play with a whopping strikeout rate of 12.46 K/9.
Not What He Was
Scherzer meanwhile is now 39 years old and had quite possibly the worst season of his career. Yes, many pitchers would be happy to go 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA, but that came with a 4.02 xFIP, the first time in Scherzer’s long career that he posted an xFIP above 4.00, and his average velocity this year of 93.9 MPH was his lowest since way back in 2011.
Max ended the season on the injured list after making his last start on September 12th, and he did not return until starting Game 3 of this series, where he was roughed up for five runs in four innings. Now we do think Manager Bruce Bochy will have a quicker hook tonight with this being a Game 7, but as great as Javier has been in these playoffs, even allowing just a couple of early runs may be devastating enough to the Rangers’ chances.
The Pick
We also think this price on Houston is quite modest, possibly based more on Scherzer’s reputation than the current form of both pitchers, so we are betting the Astros to advance to the World Series.
Predicted Score: Astros 4 – Rangers 3
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-122) at Heritage Sports
Continuing with this same game, we are also betting the Under based on the assumption that Scherzer will get pulled at the first sign of trouble.
News Not All Bad
To be fair, the news was not all bad in Scherzer’s return in Game 3 as his average velocity of 94.1 MPH was higher than his season average, and he even hit 96 MPH several times over the first three innings before wearing down in the fourth, which may have been due to basic fatigue after not pitching for a month.
So we are very aware that Scherzer could possibly turn back the clock tonight in his second start back, but if not does not, Bochy is savvy enough not to worry about feelings or be blinded by Max’s past accolades by having a quick hook.
The Pick
We think both of those scenarios (Scherzer pitches well or pulled quickly) suit the Under well, so we are adding that second bet to our Astros play.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
