MLB Pick: Rangers (-129) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Astros are on the ropes down 0-2 in the ALCS against the Rangers, and the MLB odds at the top sportsbooks suggest the defending champs are going to be in a bigger hole after Game 3 of the ALCS.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, October 18, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Yet to suffer a defeat this postseason, the Texas Rangers can put the Houston Astros in a stranglehold Wednesday night in front of what promises to be a raucous home crowd in Arlington for the third game of the ALCS.
Houston will ask Cristian Javier (11-5, 4.41) to potentially save their season and continued quest for a repeat as MLB champs, while the Rangers trot Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77) out to begin their evening on the mound. Early odds had Scherzer and the Rangers -130 on the moneyline, and scoreboard bettors are facing a decision on a 9-run total.
Scherzer Likely Limited in 60-70 Pitch Range
Javier was solid in Houston’s ALDS Game 3 win over the Twins, tossing five shutout innings and allowing just one hit. He got himself in trouble with five walks, but was able to work out of jams thanks to nine strikeouts.
The Rangers roughed Javier up in his lone appearance against them this season, scoring eight times and banging a couple of homers before chasing him in the fifth inning of a July start in Arlington. The Dominican has been stingy in the playoffs with a 1.91 ERA across three starts and 12 relief outings (37.3 IP).
It has been about five weeks since Scherzer pitched, a strained shoulder muscle shelving him in the interim. About a week before he went on the injury list, Scherzer squared off against Justin Verlander and the Astros, and it was not a pleasant experience (3 IP, 7 ER).
Scherzer also faced Houston once this season while with the Mets, and kept Astro bats quiet with an 8-IP, 1 ER effort. He’s 7-7 with a 3.58 ERA in 22 postseason starts and five relief outings during his career (133.1 IP).
Alvarez Has Been Lone Astros Threat in Playoffs
Considering the potential of both lineups, it has been a low-scoring series so far with just the 11 runs total in the first two games. Though we did get an ‘over’ at top sportsbooks, and just barely at that, the Rangers (5.44 rpg) and Astros (5.10) should be combining for 11 runs per game.
That 2-0 win in the opener was an oddity for the Rangers, who won just nine of their 90 regular season games scoring 2 runs or less. Neither team had much to crow about at the plate in the series opener, which ended up being the first time this postseason that both starting pitchers worked into the seventh inning of a contest.
Outside of Yordan Alvarez, who has 6 HR in the playoffs, the Astros have been very quiet this October. Kyle Tucker is 0-8 in the ALCS and batting just .091 in the postseason (2-22), while Jose Altuve is also 0-8 in this series while hitting .160 (4-25) in the playoffs.
Umpire Notes & Roof Report
Tasked with calling balls and strikes in Game 3 is James Hoye, who was selected as crew chief for the ALCS. Hoye also was the crew chief for the NL Wild Card Series between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies, never working the plate in that set.
A veteran of 21 seasons, Hoye made 32 plate assignments during the regular season and displayed a slight ‘under’ tendency at 14-18 O/U. This will be the Ohio native’s fourth LCS plate assignment, the previous three running 2-1 O/U.
There has not been an official announcement regarding the roof at Globe Life Field for Game 3, but speculation is it will be closed as it was for Game 3 of the ALDS between the Rangers and Orioles. MLB will make the decision, and if it is to be closed, it won’t be due to the weather, with the forecast calling for clear skies, temps in the mid-70s at first pitch, and a SSE breeze.
The Pick
Given how they closed the regular season, the Rangers seemed an unlikely threat to win 7-straight postseason games. Corey Seager, Leody Taveras and Evan Carter have been huge in turning the lineup over, that trio combining for a .529 on-base mark.
The bullpen was perceived as the weakest link for the Rangers, and the relievers have so far done their jobs with a 2.01 ERA as a group. We’re taking Texas for our MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Rangers (-129) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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