MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-160) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
There are two MLB League Championship Series games on Monday with the Diamondbacks and Phillies starting their series while the Rangers and Astros play Game 2 after Texas pulled the upset in Game 1, and we have three best bets at the top sportsbooks in the two games.
These are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
Based on the MLB betting odds, we have one such value dog in one of the games on Monday as well as a chalky double dip in the other.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Monday, October 16, 2023 – 04:37 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Keep in mind that our model looks at each game in a vacuum and thus does not “care” that the underdog Rangers have a 1-0 series lead, so we are following the model and backing Texas to pull another upset with Nathan Eovaldi over Framber Valdez and the Astros.
Velocity Spike
Nathan Eovaldi had a nice first season for the Rangers going 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA, and while his xFIP was a bit higher, it was not excessively so at 3.96. He averaged a good 8.25 K/9 and he lowered his hard contact rate by over 8% since his final season with the Red Sox last year all the way down to 28.6% from 36.7%.
But what really caught our eye was Nathan’s velocity spike at the end of the regular season as it suddenly jumped from an average of 92.9 MPH in his second to last start to 95.1 MPH in the regular season finale, and he has gone on to pitching magnificently in two post-season starts, allowing a total of two runs and 11 hits in 13.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and NO walks vs. the Rays and Orioles combined.
Not Sharp
We had Framber Valdez pegged as a Cy Young Award candidate before this season after posting an xFIP below 3.00 in two of the last three seasons, and while he had a solid season, he took noticeable dips in some key areas going a modest 12-11 with a 3.45 ERA and 3.39 xFIP. That does not make him “bad” by any means, but remember he had a 2.82 ERA and 2.99 FIP last season.
What is more concerning is that Framber was not sharp at all to end the regular season allowing 10 runs on nine hits plus a disturbing eight walks over 9.1 innings over his final two starts. He then followed up with another poor start vs. the Twins at ALDS, allowing five earned runs on seven hits plus three walks in only 4.1 innings.
The Pick
Given the huge disparity in the current form of these two starters, bet the Rangers at an underdog price on Monday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+109) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, October 16, 2023 – 08:07 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Although Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks is one of the two favorites to win the National League Cy Young Award, we have Zack Wheeler of the Phillies rated as the much better pitcher, and while the oddsmakers apparently agree, we are laying the big chalk with the Phillies in the first five innings.
WAR Leader
Wheeler led all Major League pitchers in WAR this season at 5.9, finishing at 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 3.54 xFIP. With WAR being a cumulative stat, his 192 innings pitched helped that cause, although it does not take away from his excellent K/BB ratio of 9.94/1.83 per 9 and allowing just 0.94 HR.9 was also impressive while pitching home games in a hitters’ ballpark.
Most importantly that large innings log has not dulled his form as he has continued to excel in two post-season starts, allowing a total of three earned runs on only eight hits over 13 innings with an amazing 18 strikeouts vs. one walk.
Not Really Cy Worthy
While Gallen had a nice season, we would not consider it Cy Young worthy as he finished 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 3.49 xFIP, and he tailed off noticeably at the end of the year after logging a career-high 210 innings, posting a 4.93 ERA over his last seven starts with a K/BB ratio of 8.79/2.79 per 9, much worse than his 9.43/2.01 for the whole season.
And he has not been particularly great in two post-season starts either despite going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA, as that is accompanied by a 5.21 xFIP after recording only eight strikeouts vs. five walks in 11.1 innings vs. the Brewers and Dodgers combined.
The Pick
So, with Wheeler having the better regular season in our mind despite the Gallen Cy Young talk and undoubtedly the better post-season so far, bet on the Phillies for the first five innings.
Predicted Score: Phillies 3 – Diamondbacks 1 (First 5 innings)
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-168) First 5 innings at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Continuing with that same game, we are also betting on the Phillies for the full game as the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has not yet been tested with Arizona cruising to a 5-0 playoff mark so far.
Worst Bullpen xFIP
Arizona has yet to face much pressure in these playoffs as they have had an early lead in all five games, but as you see above, we do not expect that to be the case tonight given our Phillies selection over five innings, so that would finally put the bullpen to the test in Game 1.
This is an Arizona bullpen that finished 17th in the league with a 4.27 xFIP, and its 4.32 xFIP after September 1st was the worst of any team during that span to make the playoffs. Yes, the pen has been commendable so far in the playoffs, but that has all come while pitching with multi-run leads, so it remains to be seen how the unit does in pressure situations.
Solid Across Board
The Philadelphia bullpen meanwhile was very solid across the board all year, ranking fifth in xFIP at 3.73, fourth in ERA at 2.74, fourth in K/9 at 10.80, and third in WAR at 1.6. This unit is a key reason the Phillies have gotten to this point, as after the Big Two of Wheeler and Nola at the top of the rotation, the rest of the starting pitchers have been quite lacking.
The Pick
But get the best of both worlds tonight with the fine pen supporting one of the stud starters, so lay the lofty betting odds for the full game with the Fighting Phils.
Predicted Score: Phillies 4 – Diamondbacks 2
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-160) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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