MLB Pick: Phillies (-122) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
There are three MLB Divisional Series games taking place Wednesday after the fourth series ended with the Rangers completing a three-game sweep of the Orioles Tuesday, and we have a best bet in each of the three games despite the Braves yet to officially name a starter.
These are value bets mostly based on our MLB predictions, thus when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. We have no value dogs today but we do have two value total after starting the day with a modest favorite.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 – 05:07 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
While the Braves have yet to name a starter, it appears their two choices here are Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver, so given those options we are betting Aaron Nola and the Phillies to take a 2-1 series lead regardless of the Atlanta starter.
Co-Ace?
Although Zack Wheeler became the Philadelphia ace this year, Nola had held that role the several years and he would probably still be the ace for many teams today despite an un-Nola-like 4.46 ERA this season. His xFIP was considerably better at 3.63 and still had very good command and induced grounders, with a K/BB ratio of 9.39/2.09 per 9 and a 42.6% groundball rate.
Aaron looked more like his vintage self over his last four starts of the regular season posting a scintillating ratio of 23 strikeouts vs. one walk to go along with a whopping 57.6% groundball rate, and he followed that up by tossing seven scoreless innings allowing just three hits vs. the Marlins in the Wild Card Series.
Neither Option Appealing
Elder pitched most often this season among the two candidates to start Game 3, and he finished a deceptive 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA as he was not nearly that good. His xFIP told the truer story at 4.50 as he had a poor K/BB ratio of 6.60/3.25 per 9 and a weak soft-contact/hard-contact ratio of 11.3% / 35.7%.
If the Braves opt for Smith-Shawver, the rookie made just six appearances (five starts) in his first taste of the majors and posted a 4.26 ERA with an ugly 5.71 xFIP over only 25.1 innings. He did end the year with a nice short outing tossing 3.2 hitless innings, but he still would be severely outclassed by Nola here.
Thus, we are betting the Phillies with Nola at the best sportsbooks no matter who takes the mound for the Braves at what looks to be a cheap price at home.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – Braves 4
The Pick
MLB Pick: Phillies (-122) at Bookmaker
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Target Field
We feel runs will be at a premium and are betting the Under Wednesday when Joe Ryan and the Twins host Jose Urquidy and the Astros in Game 4 with Houston leading the series 2-1.
Better Than the ERA
The Twins are calling on Ryan to keep their season alive after a disappointing season in which he went just 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA. However, Ryan pitched in some bad luck as evidenced by his better 3.76 xFIP and he retained his command with an excellent K/BB ratio of 10.97/1.89 per 9.
In fact, his swinging strike rate of 13.8% was the best of his three-year Major League career and this is a guy with a career rate of 10.15 K/9. Many were surprised when Bailey Ober got the start in Game 1 over Ryan, but the benefit of that now is that Joe is the better option with the season on the line.
Post-Season Experience
Urquidy has an injury-plagued career with his most healthy season being last year when he went 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA over 28 starts, but the injury bug hit again this year as he tossed just 63 innings while posting an ugly 5.29 ERA and 5.45 xFIP.
It is hard to take those numbers at face value though when Urquidy is the healthiest he has been all year right now, and he had never posted an ERA over 4.00 in his career before.
The most encouraging sign is his first start returning from injury was a great one on September 29th when he tossed six scoreless innings allowing just two hits vs. a good Arizona lineup. Jose will not be fazed either as he does have six career post-season starts including a couple in the World Series, with a solid career post-season ERA of 3.72.
Assuming Urquidy’s comeback start was a valid indication of his health, and also with Ryan being better than his ERA this year, look for a tight low-scoring Under in Game 4.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Astros 2
The Pick
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 – 09:07 PM EDT at Chase Field
Nobody outside of Arizona would have believed that the Diamondbacks would take the first two games of this series in Los Angeles, now returning home with a chance to sweep the Dodgers, but our focus is on the Over with Lance Lynn taking on Brandon Pfaadt.
Overachiever
Despite owning a career 3.74 ERA, we have never been fans of Lynn as he is a pitcher whose metrics almost always lagged behind deceptive ERAs. Well, that luck probably caught up to Lynn this year as he finished with a career-worst 5.73 ERA, although he still overachieved with a 13-11 record.
That record aside, Lynn was what he usually is, a guy with a decent strikeout rate but who also issues a lot of walks and home runs. His strikeout rate was admittedly quite good this year at 9.36 K/9, but it came alongside a high 3.28 BB/9 and an atrocious 2.16 HR/9 allowed.
Tough Matchup
Now, Pfaadt did not finish with good overall numbers at 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 4.46 xFIP, although it must be noted that he was much better after his second recall from the minors this year than he was when first called up earlier in the season.
But with that said, Brandon’s first post-season experience was not a good one as he lasted just 2.2 innings allowing three earned runs on seven hits plus one walk. Furthermore, while the Dodgers have been dormant offensively the first two games, that is still a unit that ranked third in the majors in wRC+ vs. righties at 117 overall, and that figure did not slip much on the road at 111.
We like the chances of the L.A. offense breaking out in desperation mode, while we also expect Lynn’s struggles this year to continue, so bet on the Over in Arizona at the MLB odds this Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 7 – Diamondbacks 5
The Pick
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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