MLB Pick: Rangers (-136) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
An opportunity for Texas to complete its second postseason sweep caps Tuesday’s MLB betting card, and it all begins with Houston and Minnesota looking to break a 1-1 tie in their ALDS.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Target Field
Pivotal Game 3 between the Astros and Twins has a mid-afternoon first pitch, and the mound matchup between Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56) and Sonny Gray (9-8, 2.71) finds Minnesota around -130 on the MLB odds with an 8-run total.
Can Gray Continue Solid Stretch of Pitching?
Javier had some hiccups with control at times this season, but tossed a gem in the regular season finale at Arizona, holding the Diamondbacks to three hits as Houston clinched the AL West title with the 8-1 win. He has a 2.20 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 14 postseason appearances (2 starts).
Gray was brilliant down the stretch with a 1.53 ERA across his final seven starts of the regular season, then went out and added five scoreless innings last Wednesday to wrap up the Wild Card Series with Toronto. Minnesota won both of Gray’s starts this year vs. Houston (13 IP, 4 ER).
Cool & Crisp Afternoon in Twin Cities
Veteran field arbiter and crew chief Bill Miller is slated to work the plate. This is his ninth LDS game to call balls and strikes, and he finished the regular season with a 12-18-2 O/U/P record at the dish.
With the game beginning in the mid-50s and cooling from there, the pitchers should have a slight advantage. The last three series between the teams at Target Field went 3-6 O/U, and that trend continues with an ‘under’ for our first MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-105) at BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 – 08:03 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
It has been a little more than two weeks since Texas played in front of the home crowd, and the Rangers are favored to complete a sweep of Baltimore with Nathan Eovaldi (13-5, 3.52) on the bump opposite Dean Kremer (13-5, 4.12) of the Orioles.
First Postseason Appearance for Kremer
Kremer faced the Rangers in late-May, and did a decent enough job working into the seventh and allowing three runs. Trouble is, he got zero support and took the loss as a small favorite at the top sportsbooks.
Eovaldi struggled in September following about a 6-week stay on the IL, pitching to a 9+ ERA in six abbreviated starts. Last Wednesday at Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, he looked like the Eovaldi who enjoyed an outstanding first half of the season by tossing 6.1 innings and allowing one run.
Texas 50-31 at Home During Regular Season
Crew chief Alfonso Marquez has the plate for what could be the deciding game of this ALDS, after finishing the regular season 18-10-2 O/U/P in his plate assignments.
The momentum in the series is clearly with Texas, and despite a bullpen that has been shaky at times, the Rangers are the best bet to finish off the Orioles.
MLB Pick: Rangers (-136) at BetOnline
Home Run Prop: Baltimore at Texas
Globe Life Field ranks seventh in the majors the last three seasons in terms of being home run friendly, and with the Orioles and Rangers combining for 5 HR in the first two games of their series in Baltimore, we can be reasonably sure to see a big fly in Game 3 of the ALDS.
Just who is going to hit it is the $64,000 question, and we’ve narrowed down the field to a few leading candidates with one player rising to the top of the list.
Starting Pitchers were HR Resilient in ‘23
Texas tied Minnesota for most homers in the AL with 233, while Baltimore was ninth with 183. The Orioles, however, were stingier in giving up homers, with 177 allowed, tied for second fewest in the AL while the Rangers armed served up 198.
Kremer was responsible for 27 of the long balls given up by Baltimore hurlers, one every 6.1 IP. Eovaldi surrendered 15 HR at a clip of 1 HR per 9.2 IP. That could leave it up to one of the relievers to be taken deep.
Can Seager Repeat 2020 Playoff Power?
The chalkiest bats to go deep for each side are Corey Seager (+265) and Anthony Santander (+295). Seager went off big time at Globe Life Field in the 2020 playoffs – a big reason he eventually signed with Texas – and Santander homered in Game 1 of this series, plus has a good history against several Ranger relievers.
My pick is Mitch Garver (+340) of Texas. Fresh off a grand slam on Sunday in Baltimore, Garver has homered off Kremer before, taking him deep in a July 22 matchup, and the price is right on one of the most underrated power sticks in the AL.
MLB Pick: Mitch Garver Anytime Home Run Scorer (+340) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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