MLB Picks for April 12: Day Baseball Has Us Backing the Astros, Mets & a High Score in Cleveland

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Jeremy Pena #3 celebrates with Jake Meyers #6 of the Houston Astros after a 8-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 10, 2023. Joe Sargent/Getty Images/AFP.

MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Astros -1.5 (+105)
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Picks Summary:

  • Astros vs. Pirates: Astros -1.5 (+105)
  • Yankees vs. Guardians: Over 9.5 (-110)
  • Padres vs. Mets: Mets ML (-105)

On Hump Day, baseball bettors have to go to work early with seven contests just before or just after the 01:00 PM hour local time. We are focusing our attention on three games in this window against the MLB odds.

Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 12:35 PM EDT at PNC Park

Astros Should Knock Hill

Rich Hill is the expected pitcher for Pittsburgh to wrap up this series. The 43-year-old relies on curveballs that vary in speed and break and thus far not much has worked. Hill allowed 11 hits in 9 innings and five of them have jumped the fence in two starts.

With Houston’s veteran lineup, any miscue by Hill is subject to leaving the yard immediately. The Astros are averaging about five runs per contest and unless Hill is very sharp, Houston should reach that total by five innings.

Here is something else you should know. Houston is 44-14 against left-handed starters the last two seasons, winning by 2.0 runs a game.

A Hole in the Pirates Lineup Will Hurt

The unfortunate injury to budding star shortstop Oneil Cruz leaves a massive hole at the top of the Pittsburgh batting order. Cruz hurt himself Sunday with an awkward slide into home plate and broke his ankle. Cruz was batting .250 leading off with an on-base percentage of .375, thanks to seven walks. The Bucs entered this series scoring a solid 4.5 RPG, but without a good leadoff man, this hurts their overall attack.

That should make life a bit easier for Houston starter Jose Urquidy, whose 3.86 ERA is acceptable. His 1.71 WHIP is a function of leaving too many balls over the plate, which is why he’s permitted 14 hits in 9 1/3 innings.

*Note: With a total of 9, Urquidy is 14-4 when the total is 8.5 to 10, winning by four RPGs.

The Run Line Pick

For your MLB picks, in the Astros’ last 64-day games, they have won by two RPGs, making them a solid run-line choice.

MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (+105) at BetOnline

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 01:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field

Pitching Matchup Destined for Higher Score

When you think of some of the excellent pitching matchups these teams have put together in recent years, this one is unlikely to be memorable.

The scheduled starters are Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees and probably Konnor Pilkington (3.88 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 2022) for the Guardians.

Schmidt has not fooled many batters with a 9.46 ERA and an enormous WHIP of 2.10. The Yanks’ righthander primarily depends on the slider and when he doesn’t have the late-breaking action on that pitch, hits come in bunches against him.

Pilkington made 11 starts a year ago, almost exclusively due to Cleveland injuries, and has not distinguished himself as someone deserving of a rotation spot on the shores of Lake Erie. The lefty is filling in for Aaron Civale, who’s on the IL.

Enough Lumber to Score Runs

The Yankees are underachieving a little on offense, while Cleveland has looked good, with more players following the contact approach of slugger Jose Ramirez.

In any case, both clubs have enough batters to put up at least five runs against these starters, who seem unlikely to reach five innings in the series finale.

The Totals Pick

As we went to post this article, we were still waiting for the sportsbook total. Our best guess based on the pitching matchup is that 9 or 9.5 will be the number. And the only way we don’t get an Over is two talented bullpens put in a long day of hanging zeros, which we will not forecast.

MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 01:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

Mets Have More Consistent Starting Pitcher

New York won the series opener over San Diego in part because Max Scherzer is a more reliable starting pitcher than Yu Darvish in the Mets’ 5-0 whitewashing. It is not a stretch to believe the very same thing could occur Wednesday afternoon.

Like trees budding in the spring, the Padres’ Blake Snell is having a difficult time starting a new season. Once a true ace with Tampa Bay, Snell is a middle-of-the-rotation hurler who has a ginormous 7.87 ERA and bad WHIP to match at 2.15. Here are two numbers that tell Snell’s story.

  • Snell is 0-8 in the first half of the last two seasons. (Padres Record)
  • Snell is 5-12 in day games since last year. (Padres Record)

Tylor Megill of New York is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA to begin 2023 after taking on the Marlins twice. Megill altered his mechanics after the 2021 campaign, adding velocity, which made his change-up more effective with a wider range of speeds. That alteration also supplied his curve with a larger drop and more depth.

If healthy, Megill deserves a rotation spot in the Big Apple.

The Money Line Pick

The MLB odds opened with San Diego at -115, flipped to the Mets at -110, and now has the home team slip to -105. Thus, this is expected to be close. Nevertheless, Snell is very difficult to trust and he could retire the first six New York batters and walk three in a row to start the next inning and permit four runs before a Padres fan ordered the next beer.

The Friars do have a little more offense, but with the Metropolitans 23-5 at Citi Field versus NL teams scoring 4.5 or more RPG, we’ll support the home team.

For Mets fans looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top New York betting sites.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-105) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.