MLB Pick: Ryan Mountcastle to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s baseball action, and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Yankees vs. Guardians, Athletics vs. Orioles, and Tigers vs. Blue Jays.
For reasons that I will explain, you should invest in player props for all three games.
Picks Summary
- Jose Ramirez to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)
- Ryan Mountcastle to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
- Bo Bichette to Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Hard-Throwing Gerrit Cole
Yankees’ starter Gerrit Cole might seem like someone who is not worth going against. While he is obviously a great pitcher, part of what makes him great also makes him vulnerable in key respects that we can take advantage of.
Specifically, Cole throws very hard. He relies primarily on his fastball, which he throws 61.6% of the time and which averages 96.8 mph. The problem with this high level of velocity is that it is easier to hard-hit pitches that are thrown hard. That is basic physics: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. A hard pitch elicits a hard hit as a reaction.
Statistical proof for this is in Cole’s unusually high hard contact rates. In addition to allowing hard contact at a high rate, he annually allows more home runs per nine innings, at least certainly than one expects from a pitcher of his caliber.
So, to go against Cole today, we should find a batter who hits him well and expect that batter to do well against him by getting extra-base hits.
Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez
Guardians’ third baseman Jose Ramirez is just the player we want.
Ramirez has been utterly consistent this season, accruing at least one hit in every game but one. He also has five extra-base hits so far but remains due for a home run.
Cleveland’s third baseman is particularly interesting today because of his strong history against Cole. In his career, Ramirez is 5-for-16 with a double and two home runs with Cole on the mound.
Betting Approach
Let’s expect Ramirez to get extra-base hits against the hard-throwing Cole.
Accordingly, we should attack the “Player to Record 2+ Total Bases” prop. In betting Ramirez to hit the “over” on this prop, we are saying that he will record at least two bases via hits.
So, for example, we are saying that he will get at least two singles. A double suffices. And so on.
MLB Pick: Jose Ramirez to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100) at Bovada
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at Camden Yards
Who Starts for Oakland
Oakland is starting lefty Kyle Muller.
Muller’s last start offered a reminder of who he is: a pitcher known for having a spotty command. Walks are a problem, and, in his career, home runs have been one, too.
Ryan Mountcastle’s Outlook
Orioles’ first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is looking at worst like the 2021 version of himself who finished the season with 33 home runs. What happens often is that a batter impresses, has a down year in response to mounting expectations, and then bounces back. So far, Mountcastle:
- Has at least one hit in every game but two
- Is slugging .561
- Boasts four doubles and three home runs in 41 at-bats
His outlook tonight is especially positive because Muller is a lefty, and Mountcastle is hitting .417 and slugging an even more amazing 1.250 against lefties.
In the expectation that Mountcastle accumulates at least one double today, let’s hit the “over” on Mountcastle’s “To Record 2+ Total Bases” prop, and make sure you check out BMR’s Maryland betting guide if you’re planning on placing your bets from the Old Line State.
MLB Pick: Ryan Mountcastle to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110) at Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Detroit’s Starter
Matt Manning starts for Detroit today.
Manning had a fortunate first start of the season at Houston. His 3.18 ERA looks good, but his 5.34 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) indicates that he performed rather poorly on an individual level. Perhaps his ERA is due to regress soon.
As for his pitches, he mostly throws a fastball, slider, and curveball; these three pitches make up almost 97% of his arsenal.
Bo Bichette’s Outlook
Toronto’s shortstop Bo Bichette is primed to thrive tonight for two separate reasons.
One, he is sizzling in general, no matter who he faces. He is 8-for-18 with a double and two home runs in his past four games. In addition to boasting solid form, he slugs .700 against Manning’s favorite pitches from righties.
For our final MLB pick, expect at least one extra-base hit from Bichette today.
MLB Pick: Bo Bichette to Record 2+ Total Bases (-125) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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