MLB Pick: Rockies +192 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
It is a typically full Wednesday MLB card with every team in action, although there is a bit of uncertainty with the Pirates and Marlins both using openers with no clarity as of this hour as to who follows in either game.
We are here with our three best bets for Wednesday and remember that these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, so when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the MLB odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
We have two such value underdogs for today’s card, as well as one total for you to take at the offshore sportsbooks.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, September 06, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We think the odds are worth taking with the Nationals as home underdogs with Joan Adon hosting Jose Butto and the Mets today.
Undeserved Road Favorite?
We are not so sure the Mets should even be road favorites here while playing out the string of a disappointing season with an unproven youngster on the mound, with Butto’s Major League career consisting of 18.2 innings with a 6.75 ERA and 6.35 xFIP.
Jose has made four appearances this year totaling 14.2 of those innings, and his ghastly walk rate of 8.58 BB/9 is actually higher than his strikeout rate of 6.14 K/9. Yes, that is a very limited sampling, but it still points to being an undeserved road favorite and it also carries over a high walk rate at AAA this season of 4.85 BB/9 over a more representative 91.0 innings.
Some Improvement
Now, Adon was a popular fade while going 1-12 in 14 starts for the Nationals last season with 7.10 ERA and 5.06 xFIP, but he has not been nearly that bad this year while already surpassing the 2022 win total sitting at 2-1 through five starts, although the 5.90 ERA and 4.94 xFIP are nothing to write home about.
Still, Joan allowed three runs or less in three of his five starts, which in itself gives him three more Quality Starts than his mound opponent Butto has in his career, and while the thresholds are low for these two starters, Adon still grades out better at a home underdog price.
Predicted Score: Nationals 6 – Mets 5
The Pick
Add in that the Nationals are much improved offensively at home vs. right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 112 since August 1st and Washington gets our underdog call.
MLB Pick: Nationals +110 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, September 06, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Look for a lower-scoring game than the posted double-digit total would suggest on Wednesday when Logan Gilbert and the Mariners visit Lyon Richardson and the Reds.
Aligning ERA/xFIP
Gilbert is quietly having a very fine season at 12-5 with a 3.56 ERA and an aligned 3.66 xFIP which suggests that the record is not very fluky. His fastball velocity has averaged a career-best 95.7 MPH and he has now developed a quality secondary pitch with his 88,8 MPH slider.
The improvement of the slider and Logan’s ability to control it in unison with the fastball velocity have resulted in great command with the best K/BB ratio of his career at 9.02/1.56 per 9, and he has also raised his groundball rate since last year to 40.9% from 36,7%, which takes on added importance in a hitters’ stadium like Great American Ball Park.
“Under” Stadium?
Now, we totally get that Richardson is being forced into duty with the entire normal Cincinnati rotation on the Covid list and that he has a 6.75 ERA through three starts. However, we are only talking about 12 innings in the majors, and he had double-digit strikeout rates at every minor-league level.
Lyon may have a chance to finally showcase his skills here as the Mariners have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball offensively at 26.0%. Also, the Under is a surprising 41-30 at Great American Ball Park this season, not because the park is playing any differently but because the posted totals here have become more inflated.
Predicted Score: Mariners 5 – Reds 3
The Pick
We think that may be the case again tonight given the year Gilbert is having and Richardson’s strikeout potential. We bet the Under in Cincinnati.
MLB Pick: Under 10½ -125 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, September 06, 2023 – 03:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
We believe Zach Davies of the Diamondbacks is overpriced at these fat odds and are thus backing Chris Flexen and the Rockies as huge road underdogs on Wednesday.
Untrustworthy at the Price
We have never felt that Davies was anything special, and his career 4.29 ERA and 4.55 xFIP attest to that. However, he has reached new depths this season sitting at 2-5 with a lofty 6.45 ERA and 4.73 xFIP through 14 starts, which does not exactly exude confidence in a prohibitive favorite role.
Zach has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.51/3.95 per 9, with that high walk rate becoming a recurring theme as his career has gone off after sitting at 3.48 and 4.56 the last two seasons, and he also owns a poor soft-contact/hard-contact ratio of 13.5% / 35.8%. In short, the bloated ERA is understandable as there is not much in his metrics to like.
Better as Starter
Now granted, Flexen has comparable numbers to Davies at just 1-6 with a 6.89 ERA and 5.07 xFIP, but even looking at only those raw numbers, there does not appear to be enough separation between the two starters to justify Arizona being such a huge favorite.
But more importantly, Flexen at least comes with some upside as he was a starter his whole career before this year, and he was never comfortable in his bullpen role earlier this season with Seattle.
The Rockies put him back in the rotation after acquiring him, and since August 1st Chris has been a bit better allowing more than four runs just once in six starts and allowing three runs or less in two of three road starts away from Colorado.
Predicted Score: Rockies 5 – Diamondbacks 4
The Pick
Look for that recent success away from the altitude of Coors Field to continue and bet the Rockies at this big price.
MLB Pick: Rockies +192 at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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