MLB Best Bets for September 5: Kershaw, Dodgers Win Big in Miami

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Top MLB Pick: Dodgers -1½ (+117) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Pennant races are heating up, and Tuesday’s MLB betting card concludes with a rematch of last year’s NLCS between the Phillies and Padres.

Key Facts

  • Minnesota begins play Tuesday with a 6-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central.
  • The Dodgers have won 7 of the last 9 vs. the Marlins, and covered the run line in 6 of those victories.
  • Beginning with Game 4 of last year’s NLCS, the Phillies and Padres have played 7 consecutive ‘overs.’

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

Tuesday, September 05, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field

That 20-6 score in Cleveland on Monday could easily be mistaken for a Vikings-Browns game instead of the opener of the Twins-Guardians series. Minnesota sends Sonny Gray (7-6, 2.92) to the mound Tuesday looking for more against Tanner Bibee (10-3, 3.03), but all we’re looking for is a well-pitched contest.

‘Under’ Cashed in 8 of First 10 Meetings this Season

Gray and Bibee hooked up last week in Minnesota, where the Guardians pulled off the upset with a 5-2 win in 10 innings as +134 underdogs at BetOnline. Bibee pitched the first 5 of those innings for Cleveland, allowing 2 runs and striking out 8. Gray watched his bullpen give one away after the veteran tossed 7 scoreless frames for the Twins.

That tough luck was something Gray got used to in August when he pitched to a solid 2.04 ERA only to see Minnesota split his 6 starts. He has a sub-3.00 ERA in 3 starts against Cleveland this season, and Minnesota dropped all 3 games. Bibee has no-decisioned in both tries against the Twins, with Cleveland splitting the two contests.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins

Tuesday, September 05, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park

The Dodgers begin their final East Swing of 2023 in Miami on Tuesday, and it should be a relatively easy trip with a follow-up series in Washington. Los Angeles gives the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.48) as a mild favorite on the MLB odds against the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo (9-8, 3.62), and all systems are go on a run-line play.

LA 15-5 With Kershaw on Bump

Kershaw allowed 4 runs in as many starts during August, and all 4 plate crossings came via solo homers. The Dodgers won all 4 games, and have taken Kershaw’s last 6 starts dating to late June. He missed facing the Marlins when the clubs played in LA a few weeks ago, and will be pitching in Miami for the first time since tossing 7 scoreless innings there in August 2019.

August started poorly for Luzardo, who allowed 16 runs in his first 3 starts (12.1 IP) before settling down with a couple of scoreless outings to close the month. Like Kershaw, Luzardo missed the Dodgers when the teams met in August, and has no-decisioned in his previous two career starts against them (11.2 IP, 3 ER).

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1½ (+117) at Heritage Sports

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres

Tuesday, September 05, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park

Tuesday night sees a rematch of last year’s NLCS continue out in San Diego where the bats were alive in the Phillies’ 9-7 win in Monday’s series opener. Taking the mound for Game 2 are Michael Lorenzen (8-8, 3.73) and Pedro Avila (0-2, 2.67), with a play on the ‘over’ finishing up our picks at the top sportsbooks for Tuesday.

Teams Rank 4th-5th in HR in NL

After beginning his Phillies career in a big way with a couple of wins, one of them a no-hitter against the Nationals, Lorenzen has fallen back down into mere mortal status his last three times out. The right-hander surrendered 15 runs – 13 earned – across 15 frames in starts against the Nationals, Giants and Angels; and Philadelphia lost two of the games.

Born just up I-5 in Anaheim, Lorenzen is making his first start at Petco since his 2017 rookie season while pitching for the Cincinnati Reds.

Avila made 3 starts and 4 relief appearances in August for the Padres, and was unable to make it through 5 full innings in any of the starts. The San Diego defense didn’t give Avila any help last Thursday against the Giants, with an error by Manny Machado figuring into the 5 unearned runs San Francisco scored against the 26-year-old Venezuelan. This will be Avila’s first career appearance against the Phillies.

MLB Pick: Over 8½ (-125) at BetOnline

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Over 8½ (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.