MLB Pick: Yankees-Red Sox Over 9½ (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have our second straight unusually bust Monday MLB card with 28 of the 30 teams in action over 15 games, as the Braves and Phillies play two. As of this hour, four teams have undecided starters in the Pirates, Braves Game 2, Royals, and White Sox.
We are here with our three best bets of the day as usual and remember that these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, so when we typically make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the MLB odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
Monday is not a typical day for us though as we are rolling with three Overs.
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, September 11, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
While this looks like a pitching duel on paper, we think the suppressed total actually gives some hidden value to the Over when Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins visit Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers on Monday night.
Is Something Wrong?
There is no disputing that Luzardo is having a fine season and has pitched better than his 9-8 record given his 3.59 ERA and aligning 3.67 xFIP. However, the Marlins never gave a reason for giving him three extra days off before his outing two starts back, and his velocity, while still good, has been below his normal levels those last two outings.
First, despite pitching on seven days rest instead of the usual four, Jesus’s average velocity of 96.4 MPH on August 30th was his lowest since May 21st, and he followed that up with another tiny dip last time out to 96.3 MPH. Whether it is a hidden injury or normal fatigue, there does appear to be some issue, and that gets magnified by this low total of 7.5.
Lagging xFIP
Woodruff enters at 4-1 after a belated start to his season with a spiffy 2.30 ERA, but the xFIP lags behind at 3.61. Granted that xFIP is still good, but the nearly 1.50 variance does leave room for some negative regression.
Brandon has also scored highly in the Luck stats with a minute .182 BABIP allowed and an obscene 92.7% strand rate that is totally unsustainable. That BABIP is even luckier when you combine Woodruff’s pretty high hard-contact rate of 34.0% and low groundball rate of 36.2%
And the best part about this low total is it may take just one of these starters to regress to blow it up, so bet the Over in Milwaukee Monday at the offshore sportsbooks.
Predicted Score: Brewers 6 – Marlins 4
The Pick
MLB Pick: Over 7½ (+108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, September 11, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
Similar to our previous selection, we feel this low posted total also gives deceptive value to the Over when Tyler Glasnow and the Rays visit Minneapolis to take on Sonny Gray and the Twins on Monday.
Regression in Progress?
Gray is a seemingly unlucky 7-6 considering his 2.98 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, and a good strikeout rate of 8.83 K/9 but note how much higher the xFIP is than the ERA, and converge may already be in progress based on the last four starts.
You see, while Sonny has managed to go 1-1 over those four starts, his strikeouts are down to 6.75 K/9 over 26.2 innings with the four-start xFIP at 4.36. And it does not help matters that he is facing a Tampa Bay offense that ranks second in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 118.
“Bounce” Expected
Now, we totally get that Glasnow has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 3.07 ERA and 2.70 xFIP, and he was spectacular last time out allowing one run and three hits with 14 strikeouts vs. one walk in six innings, meaning 14 of 18 outs were strikeouts.
However, Glasnow has alternated great starts and mediocre starts over the last four outings, which would put him in line for a “bounce” here, but more importantly, if the Rays get to Gray offensively as we expect, Tyler may not need to allow many runs for this game to go Over.
Therefore, even with the Rays expected to do most of the damage, that may be enough to go Over this low number.
Predicted Score: Rays 6 – Twins 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Over 7½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, September 11, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Look for a relative slugfest producing an Over when Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees visit Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox in probably baseball’s biggest rivalry on Monday.
Velocity Drop
We felt Schmidt was a bit underrated earlier in the year when his xFIP was considerably better than his ERA, but sadly this is a rare case where the xFIP has converged toward the ERA instead of the typical other way around, and he now sits at 9-8 with a 4.54 ERA and 4.19 xFIP.
Yes, the latter figure is still better than the former, but the gap has narrowed from where it once was as Clarke’s velocity has decreased over his previous start in each of his last four outings, sitting at an alarming season-low of 91.8 MPH last time out. It does not help that he is facing a Boston offense that owns a potent wRC+ of 109 vs. right-handers at Fenway Park.
Some Fatigue?
Crawford has logged 107.1 innings thus far this season, just five innings shy of his career professional high of 112.1 while in A ball back in 2018, and he may very well be hitting a wall.
Kutter had allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts prior to his last two outings, and he allowed exactly four runs in the other three efforts. However, his last two starts have been his worst of the season, first allowing six runs in just 2.2 innings two starts back and then surrendering five runs in 3.2 innings last time out.
And just like that, Crawford now sits at 6-7 with a 4.36 ERA and 4.49 xFIP after both were below 4.00 earlier. So with both starters trending in the wrong direction after promising starts to the year, go Over in Boston Monday.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 7 – Yankees 5
The Pick
MLB Pick: Over 9½ (-113) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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