Top MLB Pick: Mariners-Mets Under 7½ (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a huge 16-game MLB card Friday due to a doubleheader in Cincinnati, and we are here with our three best bets on the schedule.
Keep in mind that these are value plays mostly based on our proprietary model, so when we make underdog plays, it means we project long term profit at the odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
With that said, Friday is a rare day for us in that there are no underdogs among our three plays, as we are opting for what we feel is an undervalued favorite featuring a veteran ace, as well as two totals.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
We are looking for a good old-fashioned pitching duel in Flushing this Friday, when Kodai Senga and the Mets host Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.
Surprising Ace
Senga was an All-Star this season after emerging as the surprising ace of a Mets staff that began the season with former Cy Young winners Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in the rotation, and he has not slowed down even as his team has crumbled, currently sitting at 10-7 with a 3,17 ERA and 3.76 xFIP.
Kodai will not overpower you, but the savvy 30-year-old “rookie” certainly learned his craft well while pitching in Japan. as he has a vast four-pitch arsenal, all of which he can throw for strikes, resulting in a very good strikeout rate of 10.88 K/9 with a nice swinging-strike rate of 12.8%. He enters having allowed three earned runs or less in his last 11 consecutive starts
Very Solid
Gilbert enters at a solid 12-5 with a 3.66 ERA and a well-aligned 3.71 xFIP, and as you might expect with those numbers so close, his underlying metrics support his success, especially his K/BB ratio of 8.88/1.68 per 9.
Logan has also raised his groundball rate from a low 36.7% last season to a more respectable 41.0% this year, and he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts including allowing two runs or less in four of those outings. He is facing a Mets offense that finished August below average for the month in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 95.
Therefore look for the steady success of both pitchers to continue with an Under on Friday.
Predicted Score: Mariners 3 – Mets 2
MLB Pick: Under 7½ (-110) at Bookmaker
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Although longtime ace Max Scherzer of the Rangers is not what he once was, we are backing him at a seemingly over-adjusted price Friday hosting Joe Ryan and the Twins.
Undervalued
Yes, we have been down on Scherzer for most of this season and have bet against him quite a bit, but that is only because he was still being priced as an elite ace that he no longer is, which is not the case at this more reasonable number tonight,
Even with his numbers down across the board with a 3.71 ERA and 3.94 xFIP, Scherzer still has an impressive strikeout rate of 10.47 K/9 and his soft-contact rate allowed is still above average at 17.9%. It is also worth noting that Max’s ERA and xFIP have improved to 2.64 and 3.35 in his five starts since being acquired by the Rangers.
Disappointing
The Twins were counting on a big year from Ryan, but he has been a disappointment at 9-8 with a 4.33 ERA. Granted the xFIP is a bit better at 3.77, but that is still not as good as Scherzer’s since the latter came over to Texas.
Joe has a bad combination of an above-average hard-contact rate and a low groundball rate, and not only that, but the hard-contact of 32.4 is literally higher than the groundballs at 31.9%, which you never like to see. This is especially problematic vs. a Texas offense ranked fourth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at a potent 113.
So with Scherzer looking undervalued for one of the rare times this year and with the Rangers expected to get to Ryan, bet the Rangers on Friday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 6 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Rangers (-146) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Look for a relatively high-scoring affair to produce an Over Friday when Touki Toussaint and the White Sox host Eduardo Rodriguez and the Tigers.
As Wild as They Come
Toussaint comes in at 2-6 with a 4,85 ERA and an especially unsightly 5.18 xFIP, and it is not too difficult to spot the primary cause for the xFIP, as that would be his grotesque walk rate of 6,67 BB/9 that basically offsets a good strikeout rate of 8.80 K/9.
Yes, we are only talking about 59.1 innings this year, but walks have been an issue for Touki since he first entered the Major Leagues in 2018, as only once did he post a walk rate below 5.62. Thus the career 5.21 ERA is not an aberration.
Coming Back to Earth
Now Rodriguez is seemingly having a career year with a 3.21 ERA at the age of 30, but the xFIP is a bit higher at 3.86 and both the ERA and xFIP have been climbing lately, as he appears to be coming back down to earth after never maintaining this type of ability previously,
The regression has now been going on for his last six starts, over which he has a 4.50 ERA and 4.84 xFIP with a weak K/BB ratio of 7.41/3.44 per 9. Eduardo lasted just 4.2 innings last time out and he does not have the most reliable bullpen backing him up with that unit ranking in the bottom third in the majors in xFIP, ERA and strikeout rate.
Thus look for both offenses to have enough success for an Over on Friday.
Predicted Score: White Sox 6 – Tigers 5
MLB Pick: Over 8½ (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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