Top MLB Pick for Today
Nationals vs. Angels: Angels -1.5 (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary
- Nationals vs. Angels: Angels -1.5 (-140)
- Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: Brewers ML (-116)
- Dodgers vs. Giants: Under 8 (+100)
We’ve got tons of baseball on the slate tonight. I broke down some of the later games and had three MLB picks. Let’s continue to profit!
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Teams Analysis
Los Angeles Angels
The Nationals are already a poor offense, to begin with. Now they’ll have to face Shohei Ohtani on the road tonight.
Ohtani has a 3.23 xFIP dating back to last season and has struck out nearly 34% of batters. He’s done well limiting walks and rarely allows extra-base hits.
The Nationals’ projected lineup has a .136 ISO and wOBA of .295 dating back to last year against righties. This team has also struck out 21.4% of the time and has worked walks just 6.6% of the time.
Washington Nationals
Meanwhile, the Angels will take on Josiah Gray. Gray is a young pitcher with great stuff. He’s just not developing in the majors yet.
He’s got a 5.31 xFIP dating back to last season and has walked about 10% of batters faced. Gray won’t get a ton of ground balls and usually gives up over 33% of hard contact.
The Angels aren’t balanced offensively. The top of the lineup, with Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Hunter Renfroe, has done well against righties, but the bottom portion hasn’t done much of anything. Still, there’s enough offense for the Angels in that lineup to win in an Ohtani start.
The Pick
Let’s take the Angels -1.5 at California betting sites.
MLB Pick: Angels -1.5 (-140) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Teams Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brewers will face Merrill Kelly, who has a 3.86 ERA with eight strikeouts this season. Kelly has a 4.55 xFIP dating back to last season with 8.2% of walks. His strikeout numbers are high enough, but he’ll give up plenty of hard contact. Lefties also have an ISO of .174.
The Brewers have five lefties in the projected lineup, including Rowdy Tellez, who has a .270 ISO against righties in his last 493 plate appearances.
Milwaukee is usually patient against righties and has worked out nearly 12% of walks dating back to last season with the projected lineup.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Diamondbacks will take on Corbin Burnes, who has a 9.64 ERA in two starts. He’s only struck out six batters, which is unlikely for him.
Corbin Burnes struggled in his last start against the Mets, but the Brewers still found a way to win that game.
Burnes has a 3.39 xFIP dating back to last season with 29.5% of strikeouts. He might not be able to earn a bunch of strikeouts against Arizona, either.
The Diamondbacks have struck out just 20% of the time against righties. Still, the lineup, dating back to last year, has a wOBA of .308 against righties. Burnes can still throw a quality start.
The Pick
Following the MLB odds, give me the Brewers on the moneyline.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-116) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Teams Analysis
San Francisco Giants
Alex Wood will get the start for the Giants. He’s a lefty with a 3.00 ERA on the season. Wood had an xFIP below 4 last season and struck out over 23% of batters while only walking 5.6%.
He’s good at getting ground balls but has allowed a .341 wOBA and ISO of .173 to his last 444 righties faced.
The Dodgers should have seven righties in the lineup against Wood. But only the top of the order has consistently succeeded against lefties.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Meanwhile, Dustin May will get the start for the Dodgers. He’s looking like Los Angeles’ best starter. He has a .69 ERA with nine strikeouts in two starts.
May still has a 4.44 xFIP through this year and last year, but he’s induced over 49% of ground balls and has limited fly balls to just 28.1%.
It’s hard to hit extra-base hits against May. However, the Giants still have a .185 ISO against righties. This team has a bunch of lefties in the lineup that can do damage, but I still don’t trust these bats against May.
The Pick
I’ll take the Under 8 in a matchup between two underrated pitchers.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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