MLB Pick: Nationals-Blue Jays Under 8½ -102 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It is a typically full MLB Wednesday card today, although there are still two teams with undecided starters as of this hour (Dodgers, Tigers), and we are here with our three best bets of the day. As an aside, we are hearing the Tigers are planning to recall Joey Wentz to either start or bulk following an opener tonight, which makes the Over appealing to us.
But back to the official plays, remember that these are value plays mostly based on our proprietary model, so when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the MLB odds posted even with a sub-.500 record. Now on to Wednesday, where we have a nice mix with one favorite, one underdog, and one total, all in the mid-afternoon.
Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 03:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We are looking for an Under Wednesday when Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays host Patrick Corbin and the Nationals.
Nice Contact Ratio
Bassitt has mediocre surface numbers beyond his 12-7 record as it comes with a 4.00 ERA and 4,44 xFIP, but he does have some underlying metrics that better support the record, starting with a good strikeout rate of 8.47 K/9.
The walk rate is a touch high but not exceedingly so at 2.92 BB/9, and he gets help in that department facing a Washington offense with the third-worst walk rate in baseball at just 6.8%, but perhaps what we like best about Chris is his soft-contact/hard-contact ratio, as the benchmark ratio league-wide is around 15% / 30% and he is ahead of the curve in both with a ratio of 17.3% / 29.0%.
Better Than Past Years?
Now Corbin has been on the butt end of many jokes as the worst starting pitcher in baseball in the last few years, but the truth is he has been making some nice progress as of late. Sure the ERA still sits at 4.70, but that is still better than 6.21 last year and 5.82 two years ago.
More importantly, he has posted a 2.70 ERA during the month of August while not allowing more than three runs in any of his four starts. Furthermore, Patrick’s biting slider clocked 82.3 MPH last start, its highest velocity of the month.
So while both starters may have some flaws, we see enough sneaky good signs to bet the Under at offshore sportsbooks on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Nationals 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Under 8½ -102 at BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 03:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
We have Logan Webb graded considerably better than Hunter Greene, and are thus laying the odds with the Giants at home hosting the Reds.
Still Underrated?
We have always felt Webb is underrated for a guy with a career 3,49 ERA and 3.24 xFIP, and now here we go again in 2023 with his ERA lining up as usual at 3.51 and the xFIP even better at an excellent 2.99 over 174.1 innings, ranking second best in the Major Leagues among qualified pitchers behind only Spencer Strider (2.88).
So obviously Logan’s 9-10 record is not of his own doing, as he has combined a good K/BB ratio of 8.41/1,39 per9 with an outstanding groundball rate of 60.6% is the best in baseball by a whopping 4%. Sure his swinging strike rate is only 8.8%, but that is because Webb wants to generate contact with his sinker, and the groundballs back that up.
Not Fully Healthy?
Greene looked like he was having a breakout campaign and fulfilling the potential that made him the second overall pick of the 2017 draft before getting injured earlier this year, but saying he has looked awful in his two starts since coming back may be an understatement as he allowed 13 earned runs on 15 hits over 6.2 innings in the two outings.
This could be a case of the Reds rushing him back while still having playoff aspirations, but Hunter clearly does not look right, and more bad news is he cannot count on, much relief with the Cincinnati bullpen ranking second to last in baseball in xFIP at 4.75.
Conversely, the Giants’ pen ranks fifth at 4.00, so bet the Giants as home favorites in what looks like a pitching mismatch in Greene’s current state.
Predicted Score: Giants 5 – Reds 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Giants -156 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We are looking for an upset by the Red Sox with an underrated Kutter Crawford on the hill hosting Framber Valdez and the Astros.
Deserves Better
Crawford is deserving of a better fate than his 6-6 record, not only because of the 3.65 EA but also because he is somewhat of a Sabermetric darling, with a nice K/BB rate of 9.18/2.89 per 9, a nice soft-contact rate of 19.4% and with his two most frequent pitches, the fastball, and cutter, both rated over 100 by STUFF+.
If you like consistency, Crawford has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts, and he allowed exactly four runs on the other three occasions, so he has yet to really get lit up. He also puts the Astros at their weaker batting split with a wRC+ of 102 vs. right-handers compared to a more robust 109 vs. southpaws.
Too Close for Road Favorite
Now we have nothing against Valdez as we had him pegged as a Cy Young candidate early in the year, and he has been solid despite the 9-9 record with a 3.40 ERA and matching 3.40 xFIP, he even threw a no-hitter last month.
Our issue here, and we know this would have sounded outlandish early in the season, is we do not see enough separation between these two starters for Framber to be a decided road favorite. Also, Valdez has not been nearly as consistent, allowing five earned runs or more in four of his last eight starts.
That difference in consistency levels is another key reason why we are backing Crawford and the Red Sox at underdog odds here.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 6 – Astros 5
The Pick
MLB Pick: Red Sox +125 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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