MLB Pick: Astros-Red Sox Over 10 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
A quick mound rematch of a lopsided win for Boston in Houston last week is part of Tuesday’s baseball betting board and a key contest for both the Red Sox and Astros.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Jose Altuve led a 3-HR attack for Houston and hit for the cycle on Monday in the series opener at Boston, and the scoreboard operator should be busy again on Tuesday when J.P. France (9-5, 3.51) and Brayan Bello (10-7, 3.56) take the mound in a rematch last week.
Sox Last 12 Go Past Totals
France and Bello met in the series finale last Thursday in Houston, and the Red Sox had put on a hitting clinic in the 17-1 rout as small underdogs on the MLB odds. Boston scored 10 of those runs before France could finish the third innings, easily the rookie’s worst outing of the year. Bello, meanwhile, worked around 9 hits and 3 walks to allow just a run in 7 innings.
In his previous 6 starts combined, France allowed only 9 runs, so there was nothing foreboding about his rough outing. Bello has enjoyed quality starts in 4 of his last 6 trips to the bump, with the Red Sox winning 5 of those games.
The Pick
Houston and Boston have been on torrid ‘Over’ runs the past couple of weeks; 11 of the last 13 Astros games went past the totals while the Red Sox are on a 12-game streak of busting the marks.
MLB Pick: Over 10 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Atlanta bats were hot in Monday’s series opener at Colorado in a 14-4 final, and the Braves should enjoy another comfortable margin of victory on Tuesday when Charlie Morton (13-10, 3.37) is on the Coors Field mound opposite Peter Lambert (3-4, 4.92) of the Rockies.
Braves Have Won Morton’s Last 3 Starts
Morton brings a string of 18-straight innings of zeroes into Tuesday’s affair, all three of those scoreless starts coming at the expense of the two New York clubs. The 39-year-old veteran tallied double-strikeout numbers in the last 2 starts and is working on a 2.69 ERA across his last 9 assignments. He’s 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA in his last 3 starts at Coors Field.
This will be Lambert’s ninth consecutive start after beginning the season in the Colorado bullpen, and despite a respectable 3.75 ERA over the last 8 (40 IP), the Rockies have won just 2 of the contests. He tossed 2 scoreless innings of relief in Atlanta earlier this season, Lambert’s only experience against the Braves.
The Pick
As one would expect, the Braves are carrying thick chalk on what should be a lovely evening in Denver (clear skies, upper-80s, east breeze right-to-left). Shaving some of that chalk off with a run-line play at Heritage Sports is the answer.
MLB Pick: Braves -1½ (-163) at Heritage Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, August 29, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers are also burdened with the chalk on Tuesday as they look to follow up on Monday’s 7-4 win over the Diamondbacks. Game 2 of the set should be the top pitching matchup on the card as Arizona sends Merrill Kelly (10-5, 2.97) to the hill at Chavez Ravine against LA’s Clayton Kershaw (11-4, 2.52).
Kelly’s Last 7 Starts: 1-6 O/U
This will be Kelly’s third start against the Dodgers in 2023, each of the previous two taking place in Phoenix and both going into the Arizona loss column despite the 34-year-old allowing just 2 earned runs in nearly 12 frames. Kelly has been consistent on the road (2.98 ERA) compared to at home (2.96) but is 0-4 with a 6.96 ERA in 6 career starts at Dodger Stadium.
After missing all of July with a sore shoulder, Kershaw has picked right up where he left off in June. The Dodgers have won 7 of his last 8 assignments while the veteran southpaw pitched to a 1.40 ERA, and he has been practically untouchable at Dodger Stadium this year with a 1.72 ERA (8 starts, 47 IP).
The Pick
Brian Knight is slated to be at the plate for tonight’s game, and the 23-year veteran stands 5-15-1 O/U/P on the season. Many of the offshore sportsbooks are carrying 8½ for the total, and the right play is on Kelly and Kershaw keeping the final on the low side.
MLB Pick: Under 8½ (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
