MLB Pick: Angels (+133) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It is an unusually busy MLB card Monday with 28 of the 30 Major League teams in action, and we are here with our three best bets of the day.
Keep in mind that these are value plays mostly based on our proprietary model, so when we make underdog plays, it means we project long-term profit at the MLB odds posted even with a sub-.500 record.
With that mindset, let us move on to the Monday action, which includes two underdogs and one total.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, August 28, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Key Facts
- Taijuan Walker seems undeserving of his 13-5 record as his bloated 4.64 xFIP is noticeably worse than his mediocre 4.02 ERA.
- Lucas Giolito may have just a 4.32 ERA and 4.43 xFIP, but he still has the better xFIP at an underdog price and a very good strikeout rate.
- Even being without Mike Trout for all but one game since July 3rd, the Angels offense is 10th in the majors in wRC+ vs. righties at 104.
We feel the Angels are a nice underdog play Monday with Lucas Giolito visiting an over-achieving Taijuan Walker and the Phillies.
The Record Lies
Walker comes in at 13-5, but he has not been nearly that good with a 4.02 ERA and a more disturbing 4.64 xFIP. He has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.44/3.75 per 9 with that walk rate at its highest point since 2014, and even worse his swinging-strike rate is at a career low of 8.2%.
Taijuan has been rather lucky for a non-strikeout contact pitcher in allowing a fairly low BABIP of 268, especially while pitching his home games in a hitters’ ballpark. He is facing an Angels lineup that has even been without Mike Trout for all but one game since July 3rd. still ranks 10th in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 10.
Better xFIP, Dog Price
Now Giolito is not setting the world on fire at 7-10 with a 4.32 ERA, which closely aligns with his 4.42 xFIP, but that xFIP is still noticeably better than his mound opponent, which is a trait we always like to see in an underdog.
Plus, Lucas has more upside due to his strikeout potential, as he is striking out well over a batter per inning at 9.67 K/9 with a swinging-strike rate of 12.2% exactly equal to last year when he posted a 3.66 xFIP.
So despite the won/lost record of these pitchers, we actually rate Giolito a tad better giving the Angels inherent value as underdogs.
Predicted Score: Angels 6 – Phillies 5
The Pick
MLB Pick: Angels (+133) at Heritage Sports
Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Monday, August 28, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Key Facts
- Jon Gray has the lowest strikeout rate of his career while his walks are slightly up since last year. leading to a 4.39 xFIP.
- Tylor Megill has awful numbers, but he may be set to return to his good form with his velocity now back, including 96.2 MPH last out.
- The Mets have an above-average wRC+ at home of 103 compared to a below-average 97 on the road.
Jon Gray of the Rangers has declining metrics relative to past seasons, so we are backing the Mets with Tylor Megill as home underdogs.
Where’s the Strikeouts?
We felt Gray was underrated in past years when his peripherals often outperformed his ERA but that is not the case this season at age 31. In fact, it is the exact opposite with the xFIP of 4.39 lagging behind the 3.76 ERA, which is what happens when your strikeouts go down and your walks go up.
But while the walks are up to 3.01 BB/9 from 2.76 last year, the biggest concern is the strikeouts, as Jon has struck out more than a batter per inning every season of his career until now that he has made at least 20 starts. including 9.47 K/9 last season. However, the strikeouts are all the way down to 7.59 K/9 this year through 23 starts.
Ready for Turnaround?
Now Megill has awful overall numbers this season despite a 7-7 record as he owns a 5.54 ERA and 5.16 xFIP after posting xFIPs in the 3.00s each of his first two Major League seasons. However, there is reason for hope due to a spike in velocity since his recall from the minors.
You see, Tylor had an average velocity of 94.5 MPH when he was demoted after getting bombed by the Astros on June 21st. In his four starts since being recalled though, the average velocity is up to 95.9 MPH including a season-best 96.2 MPH last time out. So, after allowing two and three runs respectively his last two starts, further improvement does not seem far-fetched.
Finally, the Mets have an above-average wRC+ at home of 103 compared to a below-average 97 on the road, so we are backing them as home dogs on Monday.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Rangers 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Mets (+141) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, August 28, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
Key Facts
- After missing all of last season, Kenta Maeda has raised his strikeout rate to 10.61 K/9 with slightly better velocity than two years ago.
- Xzavion Curry has allowed more than three runs just once and is now a conventional starter after several appearances as an opener.
- The Cleveland bullpen ranks second in the majors during the month of August in xFIP at 3.78.
We are betting the Under in Minnesota on Monday when veteran Kenta Maeda and the Twins play host to young Xzavion Curry and the Guardians.
Just Like Old Times
Maeda is now 35 years old and missed all of last season, and yet he has raised his strikeouts rate from 9.56 K/9 two years ago to an excellent 10.61 K/9 this year while not only maintaining his velocity but actually raising it a tick from 90.8 MPH in 2021 to the current 91.0 MPH.
Granted, Kenta sits at 3-7 with a 4.22 ERA, but as usual, the truth lies in the better 3.85 xFIP, Also he comes in with an impressive streak of allowing three earned runs or less in his last 11 consecutive starts.
Now a Starter
Curry began the season in the bullpen and the Guardians used him as an Opener several times before they saw enough to convert him to a conventional starter, as he sits with a 3.51 ERA after allowing more than three runs just once so far in any of his roles across 12 appearances.
Curry had his last start suspended by rain, but prior to that, he tossed a career-high six innings while maintaining his effectiveness, allowing just one run and five hits with six strikeouts. Granted he does not figure to go beyond six innings again, but the Cleveland bullpen has been much better than it was earlier in the year.
In fact, that pen ranks second in the majors in xFIP during the month of August at 3.78, so that plus the expected success of the starters has us betting the Under at the offshore sportsbooks on Monday.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Guardians 3
The Pick
MLB Pick: Under 8½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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