Mets vs. Reds April 7 MLB Best Bet: Pitching Duel in Cincinnati

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Sean Manaea #59 of the New York Mets throws a pitch during the second inning of the game against the Detroit Tigers at Citi Field on April 01, 2024. Dustin Satloff/Getty Images/AFP

It’s Sunday morning and after taking a look at the MLB odds for today, I think there might be some value in the Mets and Reds going Under in the first five innings. 

Let’s break down the matchup and let us know if you’re tailing at the top-rated sportsbooks.

MLB Best Bet: First-Five Innings Under 4.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

Sunday, April 07, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park

The Mets start Sean Manaea today. Manaea will look to build off his previous start which he started by sitting down twelve consecutive Detroit batters. He struck out eight in six shutout innings.

Detroit mustered one hit.

Manaea’s Pitches

Manaea relies primarily on his fastball, which, like his sweeper, he does a good job of distributing throughout different parts of the strike zone.

Heat maps show his propensity for elevating his cutter and burying his changeup. His ability to locate his pitches well makes him hard to hit.

Batters especially struggle to deal with the borderline location of his pitches because their movement toys with their perception of whether they will land for a ball or a strike.

Especially his fastball has tremendous horizontal movement.

Manaea vs. Reds

Manaea is in a great spot today because he is a daytime pitcher. His career-winning percentage skyrockets in day games.

Correspondingly, his career daytime ERA is .60 lower than his career nighttime ERA. Cincinnati is also struggling to hit his pitches.

The Reds rank 24th with a .275 slugging rate against his four pitches from lefties.

Andrew Abbott 

Andrew Abbott starts for Cincinnati. Abbott will look to replicate the strong start that he enjoyed in 2023.

His 2.83 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his previous start, which took place in Philadelphia, shows a lot of promise for his form.

Abbott vs. Mets

Abbott throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, and changeup. His outlook is strong today against a Mets lineup that ranks 24th with a .267 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.

MLB Best Bet: First-Five Innings Under 4.5 (-105) at Bovada

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First-Five Innings Under 4.5 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.