MLB Pick: Under 8 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a typically full 15-slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Mariners vs. Guardians matchup on Wednesday.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, June 19, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Progressive Field
We think that runs will be hard to come by in Progressive Field on Wednesday, so we are backing the Under when Tanner Bibee and the Guardians host Bryan Woo and the Mariners.
Improvement in Second Season
Bibee comes off a nice rookie season for the Guardians last season where he went 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA, although he did have a 4.22 xFIP. He is currently 4-2 with a higher 3.94 ERA this season, but he has improved his underlying metrics starting with his 3.40 xFIP, ranked a commendable 20th in the majors.
Tanner has seen a nice jump in his strikeout rate in his second season to 10.39/9 from 8.94/9 as a rookie, and that is not a fluke with his swinging-strike rate up to 12.6% from 11.1%. He has a respectable 94.7 MPH fastball, but that pitch looks faster due to an excellent slider (118 Stuff+) and cutter (111), and he has also incorporated a change-up 18.2% of the time. That mix has helped lower his hard-contact rate to 27.0% from 30.2% last year.
Solid When Healthy
Woo has had injury issues this season, not making his season debut until May 10th and then landing on the injured list again after six starts with a strained forearm. The latest stint on the IL was a short one though as he is now well enough to be activated for this start, and he has been effective when he has made it to the mound.
He has posted a 1.07 ERA over 33.2 innings allowing one run or less in five of his six starts and three runs in the other one. Obviously, that ERA won’t continue and his xFIP is considerably higher at 3.73. But even that is better than his 4.26 xFIP as a rookie last season, and he has shown improved command with only two walks in those 33.2 frames. He has also seen a nice decline in his hard contact rate since last year to 21.7% from 27.1%.
With both young second-year starters showing some improved metrics in their sophomore seasons, bet the Under in Cleveland Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 4 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-113) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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