NFL Pick: 2023 Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Los Angeles Chargers made their playoff debut in the Justin Herbert era last season, and the result was more on-brand than one could have imagined. The Chargers blew a 27-0 lead at Jacksonville in the wild-card round, falling 31-30 for the 3rd-largest blown lead in NFL playoff history.
Herbert has reset the market with a new contract worth $52.5 million per season. But if he is going to be acknowledged as a top-tier quarterback by everyone, the Chargers must get better results on defense and better health from their star players.
This sounds like the story for the Chargers every year, but at some point, they have to give us a different outcome. With an over/under of 9.5 wins and a tough schedule, we look at the Chargers’ place in the AFC and if they have done enough to win 10 games again.
The Changes That Matter
Unlike last year’s spending spree, the Chargers kept things relatively quiet in free agency, most notably picking up veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks from the Vikings. But the most exciting changes in Los Angeles are in the coaching ranks as the team has new coordinators to help Brandon Staley out in his 3rd year as head coach.
Kellen Moore comes from Dallas to replace Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator. This feels like an ideal hire as Lombardi was not doing enough to make full use of Herbert’s arm talent. In 2-of-4 seasons with Dallas, Moore’s offense led the NFL in yards gained. They also finished in the top 6 in scoring in all but the 2020 season when Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury.
Breath of Fresh Air
Herbert and Moore should be a great duo this year. A new season also means a slate of clean health for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But in case something happens this year, the Chargers have more insurance after spending a 1st-round pick on TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. He may only end up being another possession receiver instead of a speedy deep threat, but another solid route runner is still ideal for this offense to thrive.
Derrick Ansley has been promoted from coaching the defensive backs to defensive coordinator. His group may be the best part of the defense with Asante Samuel Jr. and Derwin James. But the Chargers need J.C. Jackson to show more after he played just 5 games last season before a season-ending injury. He did not have any interceptions in those games after 25 interceptions in his first 4 seasons with New England.
The Bosa Is Back
The other key player to return from injury is edge rusher Joey Bosa, who only had 2 games last season where he played 40 defensive snaps. He missed 12 full games last year and was not at full strength when he returned for the final 3 games, including the playoff loss.
The Chargers also let go of their head athletic trainer, a fact we probably would not bring up with any other franchise. But for a team with so many notable injuries over the years, a new way of doing things is a welcome change.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Chargers have been at 9 and 10 wins in Staley’s tenure so far, so the line of 9.5 feels fair when you consider the Chiefs (11.5) are still the defending champions and favorites in the AFC West division.
But the expected improvement by Denver after hiring Sean Payton and a Raiders team that had as many wins (6) as blown 4th-quarter leads (6) last year can make the division games very tough on the Chargers, who were 2-4 against the AFC West in 2022.
What about the rest of the Chargers’ schedule? Here are some notable facts about it:
- The Chargers see the Dolphins (Week 1) and Vikings (Week 3) in early-season games that could be challenging.
- The bye comes early in Week 5, so the team will go the long haul without a break.
- The stretch out of the bye is most difficult as the Chargers have to host a good Dallas (Week 6) on a Monday night, then travel to Kansas City for a big Sunday clash against a Chiefs team that has 10 days to prepare for this Week 7 game.
- November could also be tough as the Chargers have a 4-game slate against the Jets (Week 9), Lions (Week 10), Packers (Week 11), and Ravens (Week 12) – 3-of-4 are expected to be playoff contenders.
- Going to New England (Week 13) in December (or any month) is usually not a good trip for the Chargers in the Bill Belichick era.
- If Denver is legitimate this year, then the toughest part of the schedule is the final 3 games against Buffalo (Week 16), at Denver (Week 17), and Kansas City (Week 18) again.
The Chargers have Herbert and a new offensive coordinator, so the offense should be improved. But that advantage is not nearly as significant in the AFC as it would be in the NFC due to the abundance of good quarterbacks in the AFC. Herbert is on the verge of greatness, but he can still be easily outplayed by Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or vintage Russell Wilson in any game.
Over or Under?
Since the Chargers are not expected to be great on defense again, this is why those games become extra difficult. You can also scoff at the mention of Wilson if you want, but the very real potential improvement of Denver is directly impactful to Los Angeles’ success this season. If the Broncos can get their Hall of Fame-caliber head coach to fix their Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback after a bad year, then Denver becomes a more balanced, more interesting competitor than the Chargers.
Expecting teams like the Jets and Broncos to improve this year and the Chiefs to stay on top of the AFC West, there are enough difficult games here to drop the Chargers to 9-8, finishing under for their projected win total for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (+105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
2022 Recap: Chargering at Its Finest
There was MVP buzz for Herbert in 2022, but that practically ended in Kansas City in Week 2. Herbert took a shot to the ribs and was visibly in pain and unwilling to run. He finished the game, another loss to the Chiefs where the Chargers failed to hold a 4th-quarter lead, and his status was up in the air for Week 3 against Jacksonville.
Herbert ended up playing to continue his Ironman streak, but the Chargers were destroyed 38-10. By the time the teams met again in the wild card playoffs, the Chargers were the ones jumping all over the Jaguars with a 27-0 lead in the first half after Trevor Lawrence could not stop throwing interceptions.
“Chargering”
But he did stop, and the season ended with “Chargering” at its finest. First, the Chargers lost a Week 18 game that was meaningless for playoff seeding, yet coach Brandon Staley still had starters playing deep into the second half. Wide receiver Mike Williams left injured and would miss the playoff game.
In the wild-card game, the Jaguars clawed their way back and eventually won 31-30, securing the largest blown lead in Chargers history. It is already the 4th time the Chargers have blown a 17-point lead in the Herbert era.
It was a disappointing finish to a season that never lived up to expectations despite the wild card berth. The Chargers blew another pair of 4th-quarter leads to the Chiefs, or else that division race could have been far more interesting than it was.
Injury Problems
With Keenan Allen and Williams unable to stay healthy at receiver, Herbert often found himself checking down to running back Austin Ekeler, which led to a career-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt, and his touchdown passes dropped from 38 to 25. The defense also disappointed outside of one great month in December when they held the Dolphins, Titans, Rams, and Colts to 11 points per game during a 4-0 stretch. It likely helped that the Rams and Colts were going through the motions with backup quarterbacks, and Ryan Tannehill was playing on a season-ending injury in Week 15.
Despite playing the Chiefs better than most, the Chargers still have another tier to climb to get up there with the Bills and Bengals as the biggest challengers in the AFC. Herbert is the right quarterback to lead them there, but the jury is still out on Staley as the right head coach.
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