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Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship Game Picks: San Fran Will Tame Detroit on Sunday

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Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers runs against the Las Vegas Raiders. Jeff Bottari/Getty Images/AFP

Top NFL Pick: Over 51 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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The Detroit Lions will travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a Sunday night NFC Championship showdown.

Let’s check out the latest NFL odds and keep cashing at our main sportsbooks!


Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium


Stat Trifecta

  • Detroit is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road in San Francisco.
  • San Francisco is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played in January.
  • San Francisco is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.

New Look Lions

The Detroit Lions are in an unfamiliar spot after this moribund franchise suddenly caught fire in the third year of Dan Campbell’s regime with a 31-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Bucs to advance to the NFC Championship game.

The Lions have not been to a conference title tilt since 1991. That day, they were blown out by the Washington Redskins.

But this year is different. Detroit has a change of pace in the backfield with David Montgomery as the all-purpose back. He’s coupled with the electric rookie Jahmyr Gibbs as the jitterbug tailback who can turn a two-yard loss into a 15-yard gain in the blink of an eye.

Add to that a rising star in rookie tight end Sam LaPorta and a top-tier receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown bolstered by arguably the best offensive line in the business anchored by Frank Ragnow, the No. 1 ranked center in the league. Of course, the man pulling the trigger, Jared Goff, cannot be overlooked as he has morphed from a serviceable starting quarterback to a click below the elite.

49ers Send Packers Packing

San Francisco had two weeks to prepare —courtesy of their well-earned bye as the top-seeded NFC entry— for the surging Green Bay Packers and they needed it. Some believed the Niners would steamroll the Packers. The odds reflected as much with the oddsmakers installing San Francisco as 10-point home chalk last Sunday.

However, it wasn’t nearly that easy. The 49ers were in the throes of an upset loss. They were trailing 21-14 entering the final frame before they cut the lead to within four off of a 52-yard Jake Moody field goal while the defense pitched a shutout over the last 20 minutes of the game.

Christian McCaffrey would seal the deal with a six-yard scamper into the end zone to hand San Francisco a 24-21 victory. A win is a win but it isn’t necessarily a cover. Those who laid the 10 points with the home team came away bitterly disappointed and lighter in their wallets.

Emotions vs. Logic

The 49ers did not exactly blow away the upstart Packers. There is a good reason to believe they may struggle in this game as well. Yet, we see the oddsmakers installing the 49ers as 7-point home favorites which would seem a bit steep considering San Francisco barely escaped the humiliation of an upset loss in their opening playoff game.

Nevertheless, as much as I love the Cinderella story that is the Detroit Lions, I learned a long time ago that betting with your emotions can leave your heart broken and your wallet empty. Detroit has an excellent pass rush but has little in the way of a formidable secondary.

I am confident Brock Purdy will have a much easier time of it than he had last week. Back then, the rainy conditions were less than favorable for a young passer. The Lions blitz defense will have to be cognizant of the 49ers’ game-changing weapon in the backfield, Christian McCaffrey.

Detroit did not have to account for a big-play tailback last week when facing the Bucs as they will this week. A quick hand-off to McCaffrey and he could sail right through the oncoming traffic of Lions pass rushers. He could also be used as an outlet valve receiver with Goff tossing a little flare to him while those same blitzers pin their ears back and miss their mark.

As for the Lions’ offense, I’m not sure they can slow down Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. But if Deebo Samuel recovers from the shoulder injury he suffered against the Packers, then this could get ugly early. As much respect I have for Detroit’s edge rusher, Aidan Hutchinson, he can’t do it alone. Especially with the Lions’ defensive backfield as weak as it is.

The Pick

Granted, it’s tough to lay seven points with a team that barely squeaked by in their first playoff game. However, the Packers’ defense poses more problems than the Lions will and I see this as a relatively high-scoring affair with the Niners covering the number.

NFL Pick: 49ers -6 ½ (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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49ers -6 ½ (-115)
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