NFL Pick: 2023 Indianapolis Colts Under 6½ Wins (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Last year, the Indianapolis Colts went from the AFC South favorite to firing their head coach and benching new quarterback Matt Ryan before the season even ended. It was a disastrous 4-12-1 season, but it has led to another new beginning in Indy.
The Colts have a new head coach (Shane Steichen) and rookie quarterback (Anthony Richardson). No more throwing an aging veteran to the wolves as Richardson should be one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the NFL, and Steichen’s experience in developing Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia should be great prep work for making this work.
But it may not look very good in Year 1. The Colts are getting over/under 6.5 wins at many offshore sportsbooks, and that could even be generous this year.
Changes That Matter
The Colts have a new coach and quarterback, but do they have the pieces in place for a good plan to make Richardson comfortable? Alas, the Jonathan Taylor situation is not making things any easier.
What to Expect From Anthony Richardson
If the Colts are expecting Anthony Richardson to be like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, then they will certainly be disappointed. This is a different type of quarterback, and the Colts should be thinking more along the lines of Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Fields with this one.
The obvious comparison for developing Richardson is Jalen Hurts since that is the quarterback Steichen worked with in Philadelphia since 2020, turning him into an MVP runner-up last year, but even Hurts came into the NFL with more polish and experience as a passer. Richardson only threw 393 passes at Florida, completing 54.7% of them.
Strengths and Building Reliable Support
In an ideal offense this season, the Colts would not ask Richardson to throw more than 30 passes most weeks while giving him plenty of designed runs and green lights for scramble opportunities. He can also do the quarterback sneak the Eagles were perfecting last year with teammates pushing the quarterback forward.
Since Richardson’s accuracy may be erratic, you give him big targets to hit like Michael Pittman Jr. (6’4”) and tight ends Jelani Woods (6’7”) and Mo Alie-Cox (6’5”). Woods would be a nice candidate to break out in this offense and play a huge role for Richardson.
The offensive line obviously has to play better, but unlike Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, Richardson will be able to escape sacks and make things happen with his legs, what would really make this hypothetical offense come together nicely is if there was a reliable runner in the backfield with Richardson. That is where the Colts could be in trouble this year.
The Jonathan Taylor Situation
In 2021, Jonathan Taylor was the man in Indy with a league-high 2,171 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns, but last year did not go as well with Taylor rushing for 861 yards in 11 games. Ankle surgery ended his season, and he is still technically on the physically unable-to-perform list.
Understandably, Taylor wants a new contract as he enters the last year of his rookie deal. The Colts have not made the extension, and he has since been granted permission to seek a trade. It seems unlikely that anyone would meet the 1st-round pick the Colts want for Taylor, and it is less unlikely when he is still nursing an injury.
The Colts have a game on September 10 against Jacksonville, and right now, there is no telling if Taylor will be on the field, out with an injury, or on the roster in another city.
This is bad news for Richardson, who has not been able to practice with his star back. Zack Moss is still on the team, and in the last 4 games of 2022, Moss averaged 83.5 rushing yards and 4.84 yards per carry.
Potential Pairing
The Colts can live with production like that, but you lose a lot of receiving ability with Moss, and there is no telling if he can sustain a big workload on the ground.
With the way mobile quarterbacks can enhance their running back’s value, the pairing of Richardson and Taylor would be fun to watch. But with the way things are going for the Colts, we may not see that duo ever play together.
Is the Defense Good Enough?
It feels weird to talk about the Colts in the “run the ball and play good defense” mold of teams, but it really would be the best way for them to manage Richardson’s rookie season. The receiving corps is not deep enough to go with an all-out aerial attack, and Richardson will likely have some accuracy issues.
So, you keep the game winnable and see if Richardson can engineer a drive or two in the 4th quarter. The Colts were actually doing this with Ryan last year, but Ryan’s experience in those situations helped him a lot. It was only late in the year when the Colts started hemorrhaging points and games got out of hand.
Incredibly, the Colts were the only team in 2022 to hold Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) and Jalen Hurts (Eagles) under 20 points. They both scored 17 in Indy. If the Colts can do that to the other elite teams on their 2023 schedule, then Richardson will have his opportunities for wins.
At the very least, Shaquille Leonard should be healthier and play more than 3 games this year, but the Colts did not load up on defense in free agency or the draft. They used a 2nd-round pick on corner JuJu Brents, who should start right away. Otherwise, we are waiting to see more from the likes of Kwity Paye (2021 1st-round pick) and Samson Ebukam coming over from San Francisco.
2023 Schedule Analysis & Pick
The AFC South still looks like the weakest division in the AFC, but after going 0-1-1 against Houston last year, it is hard to say this division will do much to help the Colts finish over 6.5 wins.
Frankly, this feels like a 5-12 season incoming with results less comical and extreme than last year’s team. Even if the Colts swept Houston (Week 2), beat Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (Week 12) at home, upset Frank Reich’s revenge game in Carolina (Week 9), and handed Josh McDaniels’ Raiders (Week 17) another loss in Indy, that would only be 5-12.
The Colts usually cannot beat the Patriots (Week 10) in years they were good, let alone projected to be bad. Trips to Baltimore (Week 3) and Cincinnati (Week 14) may not be kind. We know the Colts never win in Jacksonville anymore.
Best to not overthink this one. The Colts will have their growing pains this year, but there should be enough positives to make the 2024 outlook much more positive.
NFL Pick: 2023 Indianapolis Colts Under 6½ Wins (-115) at BetOnline
2022 Recap: At Least It Was Funny to Watch
On paper, the Colts had a formidable plan for 2022. Bring in Matt Ryan to stabilize the offense and give the team an edge they lacked with Carson Wentz in 2021. We know head coach Frank Reich is used to building an offense for a new quarterback every year since he joined the Colts in 2018, so adding a former MVP in Ryan should have been fine.
It also was a chance for the Colts to put the best roster Ryan has had around him in years in coming over from Atlanta. They could run the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who was fantastic in 2021. They had a No. 1 wideout in Michael Pittman Jr. and some high-quality offensive linemen.
They had a defense that produced a ton of takeaways the year before, largely thanks to the way linebacker Shaquille Leonard played. It all made sense for how this team could win 10 games and likely a division title.
Challenges and Changes
Then it took 2 games to see this was about to be a disaster. The Colts needed a 17-point rally in the 4th quarter in Houston on opening day just to get an overtime tie after missing a game-winning field goal. Worse, they were blanked 24-0 in Jacksonville, their personal place of horrors as they have lost every road game to the Jaguars since 2015.
There was a wild upset win over the Chiefs, but the Colts were grinding away for every win behind Ryan’s 4th-quarter heroics. Otherwise, he was taking sacks left and right, fumbling like crazy – Colts lost a league-high 14 fumbles in 2022 – and the defense was playing without Leonard, who only appeared in 3 games. Taylor also missed 6 games at running back, but that was mostly late in the year after things were out of hand.
At 3-3-1, the Colts made a curious decision to bench Ryan for Sam Ehlinger. After a 26-3 loss to the Patriots in Ehlinger’s 2nd start, the Colts fired Reich. Their decision to hire former center Jeff Saturday as interim coach despite his lack of coaching experience at the NFL or college football level was a headscratcher.
Saturday’s Coaching Debut
Saturday went from tweeting that the Raiders looked horrible in a game to coaching against them 2 weeks later. Incredibly, he won that debut with Ryan’s final game-winning drive of possibly his career. But the Colts would lose out the rest of the way.
That is not to say Saturday did not look the part of a coach for a solid month. He had 4th-quarter leads against the Eagles and Steelers before losing both games. He was in a 21-19 game in Dallas going into the final quarter too. But that was when the floodgates opened and the Colts became the first team since 1925 to get outscored 33-0 in a 4th quarter.
Prior to that game in Dallas in Week 13, the Colts never allowed more than 27 points in any game last year. They would allow 32 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games.
Last Year’s Historic Collapse Casts Shadow on Upcoming Challenges
But the record-setter came a week later when Saturday, on a Saturday afternoon in Minnesota, took a 33-0 lead into halftime and came away with a 39-36 loss in overtime. It was the biggest blown lead in NFL history, supplanting a 32-point comeback engineered in a playoff game by Frank Reich as Buffalo’s quarterback in 1992.
There was nothing lower than that. The Colts benched Ryan and lost their remaining games, mostly in blowout fashion. They did blow another late lead in the Week 18 finale against Houston, so the Colts were not able to get a single win against a team that finished 2-13 in its other 15 games.
The Colts are moving on, but a season like this one could be hard to remove the stench from in 2023.
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