Top NCAAF Pick: Liberty +17 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals, is the site of this year’s Fiesta Bowl between No. 23 Liberty and No. 8 Oregon.
Let’s check out the NCAAF odds board as undefeated Liberty battles a Pac-12 juggernaut in the Oregon Ducks as we continue to cash in our main offshore sportsbooks!
Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks
Monday, January 1, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Liberty is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
- Liberty is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
- Liberty is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the underdog.
Flames Shine Bright
Liberty ended their season by trouncing New Mexico State, 49-35, and capturing the Conference USA crown. Sophomore quarterback, Kaidon Salter, connected on 20-of-25 for 319 yards with two passing touchdowns for the Flames. Salter also rushed 12 times for 165 yards and added a trip into the end zone. Not surprisingly, he was named the game’s MVP.
Not only was Liberty’s aerial attack on point, but the ground-and-pound game was relentless, amassing 393 yards led by Salter (165 yards) but with contributions from Billy Lucas (86 yards), Aaron Bedgood (72 yards), and Quinton Cooley (71 yards).
Ducks Quacked in Season Finale
The high-flying Oregon Ducks came up just short in their bid to claim the Pac-12 Championship as they dropped a 34-31 decision to Washington and saw their hopes of a CFP berth vanish. Despite falling behind, 10-0, in the opening quarter, the Ducks rallied and entered the fourth quarter with a 24-20 lead.
However, Washington took over from there and when the smoke cleared, the Ducks’ secondary had been torched for 324 yards while Huskies’ tailback, Dillon Johnson, smashed his way to a pair of touchdowns and 152 rushing yards on 28 carries.
Oregon quarterback, Bo Nix, did his part by tossing for 239 yards and three touchdowns while tallying 69 of the team’s 124 rushing yards. Senior defensive back, Khyree Jackson, had the Ducks’ only interception while the pass rush sacked Washington quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., twice.
High-Octane Showdown
This should be an entertaining matchup between two prolific offenses. As we can see below, there will be no shortage of fireworks in this one.
Liberty ranks:
- 5th in points (40.8/game)
- 83rd in passing (212/game)
- 1st in rushing (303/game)
Oregon ranks:
- 2nd in points (44.2/game)
- 2nd in passing (342.8/game)
- 27th in rushing (184.6/game)
We can see that the Flames love nothing more than running the ball, led by junior running back Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns along with the dual threat under center, Kaidon Salter, who picked up a dozen rushing touchdowns this season and ran for 1,064 yards.
However, the Ducks rushing attack is also equipped to do damage with Bucky Irving and Jordan James acting as the two-headed monster in the backfield. Yet, the big name is quarterback, Bo Nix, who will play in this game and not opt out as some of his NFL-bound peers are wont to do. Nix is a first-round talent who engineered Oregon’s 2nd-ranked passing attack this season.
So, we know both teams can score but how well do these teams stack up defensively? Liberty surrenders 22.7 points per game (ranked 46th) while Oregon allows 17.3 points per contest, which places them No. 11 in the nation.
This is a primary reason why the current line is as big as it is. When all things are pretty much equal in terms of scoring production, the oddsmakers look to the defense and the Ducks do it better than the Flames.
However, there are reportedly several members of the Oregon team who will be sitting this one out for a variety of reasons. Rumors are swirling that the Ducks’ leading receiver, Troy Franklin – 13 games, 81 catches, 1,383 yards, 14 TDs – will be traveling to the Fiesta Bowl but may not suit up as the NFL is beckoning.
We do know that the Rimmington Trophy winner, the award given to the nation’s top center, Jackson Powers-Johnson, will not be participating, and true freshman, Iapani Laloulu, will be taking his place. That could be a concern as the rapport established between the quarterback and the center is often underappreciated.
Lastly, Oregon has several defensive players opting out including defensive lineman, Popo Aumavae, and cornerback, Khyree Jackson, both of whom will be sorely missed on the Ducks’ defense.
The Pick
As of this writing, Oregon is a 17-point favorite and that seems like far too many points. Granted, Oregon plays in a much tougher conference than Liberty but the Flames have not just gone undefeated, their average margin of victory is nearly 19 points!
I respect Oregon’s offense, but 17 points is simply too much of a head start to give a team like Liberty that can light up the scoreboard as well.
NCAAF Pick: Liberty +17 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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