Top Soccer Pick: Aston Villa ML (-166) [1.66u for 1u] at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
England’s prestigious FA Cup has been widdled down to the final 32. This weekend’s British soccer calendar takes a break from domestic action as the UK’s finest go head-to-head in a battle for placement in the competition’s final 16.
I’ve studied the FA Cup odds to formulate the best betting picks at the main offshore sportsbooks for this weekend’s third-round fixtures involving Sunderland vs. Newcastle, Middlesbrough vs. Aston Villa, and more.
Continue reading for my top soccer betting picks from across the FA Cup fixtures set to take place on January 6 & 7.
Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United
Match Info
- When: Saturday, January 06, 07:45 AM ET
- Where: Stadium of Light
- Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Sunderland W/D/W/L/L – Newcastle L/L/L/L/W
Sunderland vs. Newcastle Stats, Odds, & Prediction
- Sunderland has lost 2 of their previous 5 home games versus English Championship squads.
- Newcastle hasn’t won a game in all competitions since the first week of November.
- Sunderland hasn’t competed in the top tier of English football since 2017.
A Renewed Rivalry in the North of England
On Saturday at lunchtime, Sunderland and Newcastle United will resume their rivalry at the Stadium of Light in an intriguing Tyne-Wear derby, one of the most notable matches in the third round of the FA Cup.
Notably, the neighboring cities in North England were the fiercest of rivals before Sunderland was relegated from the Premier League in 2017. This weekend’s visitors lost 6 of their last 7 clashes with Sunderland, staying winless in this Tyne-Wear derby since 2011.
However, a lot has changed since the days of Sunderland dominating the results in this derby meeting. The Black Cats are in a division below (English Championship) The Magpies. Although they’re chasing promotion, sitting in the sixth position of the table, their current squad depth and talent levels cannot be compared to that of their footballing foes.
Snapping a Horrid Trend
Newcastle, reeling from a concerning streak of four consecutive losses (and seven of eight overall across all competitions), now seeks to snap an identical losing streak in the FA Cup. They have been unsuccessful in the FA Cup playoffs since before the first pandemic lockdown in March 2020.
The Magpies have also been eliminated in the third round via lower-league opponents in the last two seasons by Sheffield Wednesday and Cambridge United. Furthermore, Newcastle have been unable to defeat Sunderland in any tournament since 2011. In fact, the Magpies have gone nine consecutive derbies without a victory.
FA Cup Third Round Betting Odds & Predictions
Unsurprisingly, the FA Cup betting odds have made Newcastle the betting favorites for this matchup. However, a price of -125 cannot be ignored.
Sure, every soccer trend favors the home side in this clash, but the most significant pieces of data are more than seven years old. A lot has changed since then, and Newcastle odds are the best available price for a Premier League side against a lower-level team in the FA Cup this weekend.
Newcastle has seen their fair share of surprising defeats in the FA Cup, but Eddie Howe's team should seize this chance to finally break their long record of not winning against Tyne-Wear rivals. We can anticipate that the away team will achieve a victory in the derby, which may perhaps serve as a turning point for their future domestic success.
Score Prediction: Sunderland 1 – Newcastle 2
Soccer Pick: Newcastle ML (-125) [1.25u wager returns 1u of profit] at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Middlesbrough FC vs. Aston Villa
Match Info
- When: Saturday, January 06, 12:30 PM ET
- Where: Riverside Stadium
- Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Middlesbrough L/W/L/W/W – Aston Villa W/L/D/W/D
Middlesbrough vs. Aston Villa Stats, Odds, & Prediction
- Middlesbrough have lost 3 of their previous 4 Championship games.
- Aston Villa are in second position of the Premier League table.
- Aston Villa has defeated Arsenal, Man City, and Tottenham this term.
A Tough Meeting Ahead
Michael Carrick's Boro team, which was expected to be a strong contender in the promotion fight this season, currently sits in 12th place out of the 24 clubs in the league.
They had emerged victorious in four out of their previous six matches, but they suffered a defeat at their home ground against Coventry City in their most recent encounter.
Indeed, Boro's Riverside residence has not proven to be advantageous this season, as they have achieved six victories and suffered six defeats in the Championship, a trend that should be a huge concern when faced with the prolific EPL strike force of Aston Villa this weekend.
Minimal Concerns for Emery & Co.
Unai Emery's team has been the surprise performers of the first half of the EPL season and is a strong contender for an unexpected title victory. Still, they would certainly be satisfied with securing a place in the Champions League.
Villa is renowned as one of the prominent figures in the history of the FA Cup. They hold the sixth position in terms of success in this prestigious event, having secured seven victories, equal to Manchester City's triumphs.
To clarify, it is necessary to rewind the timeline by five years to a point when both Villa and Middlesbrough were competing in the same league. During that time, Villa emerged victorious in both matches, home and away, with a score of 3-0 in the Championship.
Indeed, Villa has emerged victorious in six out of their last seven encounters at the Riverside, and in 2024, the skill gap in squad talent and club success is larger than it’s ever been.
FA Cup Third Round Betting Odds & Predictions
Much like Newcastle’s FA Cup betting odds, bookmakers have again surprised me and placed an excellent price on a Premier League side facing a lower-tier team.
Villa is expected to have a significant advantage over Boro and can demonstrate their superiority by comfortably securing a victory in this match.
Following this game, they will have an eight-day break and approach the tie with utmost seriousness. Boro's performance at the Riverside this season has not been very strong, and the visitors can be supported with an exceptional moneyline price of -166.
Score Prediction: Middlesbrough 1 – Aston Villa 3
Soccer Pick: Aston Villa ML (-166) [1.66u wager returns 1u of profit] at Heritage Sports
Extra FA Cup Best Bets to Beat the Bookie
Coventry City vs. Oxford United
Saturday, January 06, 07:30 AM ET
- Coventry ML (-141) at Heritage Sports
AFC Wimbledon vs. Ipswich Town
Saturday, January 06, 07:30 AM ET
- Ipswich ML (-161 odds) at Heritage Sports
Stoke City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, January 06, 10:00 AM ET
- Brighton ML (-179 odds) at Heritage Sports
Gillingham FC vs. Sheffield United
Saturday, January 06, 10:00 AM ET
- Sheffield Utd Moneyline (-173 odds) at Heritage Sports
Luton Town vs. Bolton Wanderers
Sunday, January 07, 09:00 AM ET
- Luton ML (-145 odds) at Heritage Sports
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC
Sunday, January 07, 11:30 AM ET
- Liverpool +½ Point Spread (-120 odds) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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