EPL Matchday 12 Best Bets: Weekend Premier League Value to Build Your Bankroll

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Alexander Isak of Newcastle United controls the ball during the Premier League Summer Series match between Chelsea FC and Newcastle United at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on July 26, 2023. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images for Premier League/AFP

Top Soccer Pick: Newcastle Moneyline (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Following a deep analysis of the EPL betting markets at the top sportsbooks, we’ve formulated the best betting picks for this weekend’s fixtures involving Arsenal vs. Burnley, Bournemouth vs. Newcastle, and more.

Continue reading for this weekend’s top soccer betting picks from across the Premier League fixtures set to take place on November 11 & 12.

Arsenal vs. Burnley

Match Info

  • When: Saturday, November 11, 2023 - 10:00 AM ET
  • Where: Emirates Stadium   
  • Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Arsenal W/L/L/W/W – Burnley L/L/L/L/L 

Arsenal vs. Burnley Stats, Odds, & Prediction

  • Arsenal are undefeated at the Emirates this season
  • Arsenal has won by at least two goals in 4 of their previous 6 home games in all competitions
  • Burnley has lost by two or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions

A Chance to Top the Division

Arsenal had the opportunity to ascend to the top position in the league standings during their encounter at St. James' Park. However, their current placement is fourth, trailing the new frontrunners Manchester City by a margin of three points, following the completion of 11 matches.

Nevertheless, the hosts approach the next weekend with a commendable record of triumphing in their last three matches played at their home stadium while also managing to keep their opponents from scoring in all three encounters. This is particularly noteworthy considering the defensive vulnerabilities that were evident at the Emirates Stadium during the previous season.

Albeit an unlikely scenario, should Man City, Liverpool, and Spurs each lose or draw this weekend, a win for the Gunners would result in a table-topping position.

Continued Misery in Burnley     

Last weekend's Premier League match between Burnley and Crystal Palace ushered in a new era in coaching annals, and Vincent Kompany will not be particularly enamored of it. Eagles veteran Roy Hodgson became the most recent coach to surpass the intelligence of his more juvenile counterpart.

Although Kompany desires for his team to adopt an offensively focused approach, their meager eight goals represent the worst offensive performance in the English Premier League. However, they can find solace in the fact that all four of their points this season have been earned away from home.

Additionally, despite having avoided defeat in both of their last two visits to the Emirates Stadium and having suffered a single loss in their last five Premier League meetings with Arsenal, the Clarets face another encounter with Kompany's squad on the road, as they have conceded eight goals in three consecutive away losses since October 21.

EPL Matchday 12 Betting Odds & Predictions

Unsurprisingly, the EPL betting odds have made Arsenal a huge favorite on the moneyline, making it unapproachable from a wagering standpoint.

However, Burnley has lost by two or more goals in 4 of their last 5, they’re riding a 5-game losing streak in all competitions, and Arsenal’s home form remains unblemished. Considering these key numbers, backing Arsenal on the -2 point spread at -101 feels like a great piece of EPL betting value.

Score Prediction: Arsenal 3 – Burnley 0

Soccer Pick: Arsenal -2 (-101) [1.01u wager returns 1u of profit] at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Bournemouth vs. Newcastle

Match Info

  • When: Saturday, November 11, 2023 - 12:30 PM ET
  • Where: Vitality Stadium
  • Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Bournemouth L/L/W/L/L – Newcastle L/W/W/D/L 

Bournemouth vs. Newcastle Stats, Odds, & Prediction

  • Bournemouth has lost two consecutive EPL home games versus top-six sides
  • Newcastle won their most recent away game 0-3 vs. Manchester United
  • Bournemouth has lost 3 of their last 4 home games in all competitions

Bottom of the League        

The hosts, whose EFL Cup campaign ended last week in the fourth round by Liverpool, are mired in the relegation zone due to a poorer goal difference than Luton Town. Although they finally broke their top-flight duck in their most recent Vitality meeting, their meager record of four home goals remains the joint-worst in the division.

Bournemouth risks finishing the international break at the bottom of the standings if Burnley and Sheffield United defeat Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion, respectively. Despite this, Iraola should continue to start in the Vitality dugout following his third absence of the season, when rumors of a potential dismissal circulated.

Fourth-Best Defense in the EPL    

Prior to refocusing their efforts on European redemption, Howe's squad has an opportunity to prolong their Premier League unblemished streak. With their victory over Arsenal, the Magpies have secured five victories and two draws in their last seven top-flight matches, solidifying their sixth-place position in the table.

The Magpies were held to a 1-1 draw at the Vitality Stadium in February. However, that one-pointer did extend their unbeaten streak against Bournemouth to eight matches since a 1-0 loss in November 2017. In that loss, a 90th-minute Steve Cook goal put an eighth-place Cherries, led by David Howe, ahead of the southern counterparts.

Furthermore, and despite drifting from the defensive dominance last term, The Magpies still own the fourth-best defensive record in the EPL, which has been a key factor in maintaining a top-six position in the table.

EPL Matchday 12 Betting Odds & Predictions

The EPL betting odds have placed a respectable moneyline price on the visitors, and considering Bournemouth’s track record, it’s undoubtedly worth a punt on this Newcastle squad.

There's perhaps no better moment for Bournemouth to take on Newcastle than now. However, given the Cherries' ongoing defensive problems, it's still hard to see Iraola's team pulling off an unexpected victory at the Vitality.

Although Howe's team is now incredibly fragile due to a tough schedule, Bournemouth is also not in great form. As witnessed against Arsenal, the Magpies can attack first and keep what they have to extend their Premier League winning streak.

Score Prediction: Bournemouth 0 – Newcastle 2

Soccer Pick: Newcastle Moneyline (-140) [1.40u wager returns 1u of profit] at BetOnline 

Extra Premier League Bets to Beat the Bookie

Aston Villa vs. Fulham

Sunday, November 12, 2023 - 09:00 AM ET

West Ham vs. Nottingham Forest

Sunday, November 12, 2023 - 09:00 AM ET

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.