Are you ready for some football? I know I am and, after a somewhat lopsided Wild Card Weekend, that only saw one upset take place, many football fans (and bettors alike) are hoping for a little bit more excitement in this Divisional Round.
Unfortunately, those expecting high-scoring games or blowouts might be disappointed as this is “playoff football” time and teams won’t be pulling any shenanigans…hopefully.
Having said that, this Divisional Round should be more exciting than our second 3-0 from last week, taking our 2021-22 NFL Record to 11-7 ATS. So, without further ado, let’s break down some NFL odds.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 23, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
Betting Preview
This is a rematch from Week 3 when the Rams beat the Bucs, in SoFi stadium, 34-24.
Believe it or not, if you go back and watch the tape you’ll see that this game wasn’t as close as the scoreboard could suggest, as Matthew Stafford overthrew his then-teammate, DeSean Jackson, a couple of times.
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You’ll also notice that in that game the leading rusher for the Bucs was Tom Brady and that was the key to L.A. dominating that game.
Betting Analysis
The sequel takes place in Tampa and this time the Bucs should be able to run the ball better as Leonard Fournette will be good to go for this game. The home-field advantage (which does matter in the playoffs) should also benefit one of the best teams ATS this season.
Yet, the O-line for the hosts is a little hampered as C Ryan Jensen and RT Tristan Wirfs are dealing with ankle injuries and, although they should play, with Aaron Donald and Von Miller coming into town, the matchup doesn’t bode well for Tampa Bay.
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Another thing to consider is the fact that the Rams are the team that disguises their coverages the most on defense and turns out that, this season, the GOAT has been more of an Average Joe in those situations.
The Pick
Without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, we could see the Rams punching their ticket to the NFC Championship in what I suspect should be a low-scoring game.
NFL Pick: Rams +3 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 23, 2022 – 6:30 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium
Another rematch from the regular season as the Bills went into Arrowhead back in Week 5 and humiliated the Chiefs 38-20.
Fast-forward to the Divisional Round and we’re getting the two best teams in the AFC going head to head once more and there is a reason why the NFL saved this game for last.
Buffalo travels back to Kansas City a week after destroying the Patriots’ defense in a game in which the Bills didn’t punt once. If you take that and add the score of the last game these two played, we get a total of 54.5 with around 85% of the consensus on the over.
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I expect that both teams will have a conservative approach and that means a lot of running, despite the fact that both are average in that department. Also, don’t bet on Allen to ball out like he did last week, as he should regress a little bit.
Despite this forecast, the game should be exciting from start to finish so take advantage of a very generous line for our second NFL pick as this is at least three points off, in my opinion.
NFL Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
Saturday, January 22, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at Nissan Stadium
Betting Preview
I love Tennessee this weekend and, apparently, my intuition was on the sharp side of the money, as early bettors moved this line from a brief -2.5, over the hook to a current -3.5.
The only way the Titans lose this game is if they turn the ball over. I know that sounds really simple but let me explain. This team is one of the best at “situational football” and that’s what the playoffs are all about.
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Mike Vrabel, my personal favorite for the Coach of the Year award, is undefeated after coming off a bye and during that time his team only got stronger, as Derrick Henry was able to practice and is expected to play after suffering a foot injury in Week 8.
Betting Prediction
He'll probably play a lot and, while he might not be 100 percent, does that really matter? This team has one identity and that is running the ball. Even with Henry gone for over half of the season, the Titans secured the #1 seed because they stuck with their game plan.
With their star RB back in the lineup, Tennessee will be more successful with their play-action calls, especially considering that the Bengals lost star DT Larry Ogunjobi and fellow DT Mike Daniels is dealing with a groin injury.
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I do have a ton of respect for Joe Burrow and his WR corps but the offensive line could struggle on the road. Still, not excited to lay a 3.5 chalk on the Titans as five of their wins during the regular season were by a field goal or less.
The Pick
That’s why I’m taking them in the first half, a spread that offers us the value that we missed out on earlier in the week. Tennessee will look to control the clock from start to finish, just as they have all season long.
That’s one of the reasons they are the second-best team ATS during the first 30 minutes of a game. If you’re feeling frisky, you might catch the Titans prop to win HT/FT at plus money at the top sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: 1st Half Titans -2.5 (-120) at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)
Jobu's Corner
- Jobu's 2021-22 NFL Record: 3-3
Our cigar-smoking friend was not impressed with the Patriots last week as they were on the wrong end of what Bill Belichick called "a perfect game".
This week he expects to be on the right end of a cover with the San Francisco 49ers as they are marching into Lambeau Field with a couple of banged-up players, thus getting +5.5 from the oddsmakers.
While the Packers should win the game, San Francisco should be able to run the ball and keep it close, just like they did back in Week 3, when they almost beat them.
NFL Pick: 49ers +5.5 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
