The Kentucky Derby is one of the biggest betting draws of the year. In 2025, the race saw a record $349 million wagered from all sources. There’s no doubt that a significant portion of that money was bet on last year’s favorite, Journalism, who ultimately came in second place.
Another heavy favorite sits atop the odds table heading into the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Renegade, at +450, is coming off a win at the Arkansas Derby and appears to be peaking at the right time. But as sports bettors, we understand that betting the favorite isn’t always a winning strategy.
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2026 Kentucky Derby Odds
Kentucky Derby odds are current as of Monday, April 27 at BetOnline.
- Renegade (+450)
- Commandment (+535)
- Further Ado (+600)
- Chief Wallabee (+650)
- The Puma (+900)
- Danon Bourbon (+1400)
- So Happy (+1400)
- Emerging Market (+1500)
- Litmus Test (+1800)
- Incredibolt (+2000)
- Silent Tactic (+2000)
- Potente (+2000)
- Fulleffort (+2000)
- Intrepido (+3300)
- Wonder Dean (+3600)
- Golden Tempo (+3600)
- Pavlovian (+4500)
- Albus (+7000)
- Six Speed (+7000)
- Right to Party (+10000)
Renegade is the clear favorite at +450, but there are a few other horses not far behind. Commandment is there at +535, followed by Further Ado at +600 and Chief Wallabee at +650. The Puma rounds out the top five at +900.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have Albus (+7000), Six Speed (+7000), and Right to Party (+10000) – massive longshots that aren’t thought to have a real chance of contending for the crown.
The Case for Betting on Renegade
Renegade has the top-end speed, the pedigree, and the jockey necessary to make a strong push for a first-place finish at the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Let’s talk about speed first. Horse Racing Nation (HRN) established a speed figure that helps us determine how fast these horses are moving. The scale goes from 1 to 160.
In Renegade’s most recent race – a win at the Arkansas Derby – he posted a 121 HRN, establishing a new career high. It was a marked improvement over the 118 HRN he hit at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February and considerably higher than the 106 HRN mark he set at the end of 2025.
As for his pedigree, Renegade’s father is Into Mischief, a champion himself who has a history of producing strong competitors. His mother comes from the famous Curlin family, which is another big plus.
Then there’s Renegade’s jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr. The 33-year-old has over 4,100 wins to his name, including a pair of victories at the Belmont Stakes in 2016 and 2022. He won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey every year from 2018 to 2020 and again in 2022 and 2023.
Ortiz has never finished better than fourth at the Kentucky Derby, but he chose to ride Renegade over other top contenders in the field, including Commandment and Further Ado. That vote of confidence is a good sign coming from someone with his background.
The Case Against Betting on Renegade
There are real, concrete reasons to bet against Renegade, and there are others that are more based in Kentucky Derby lore and curses. We’ll start with the latter.
For one, the outright favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It’s one of the longest stretches in the race’s history without a favorite winning – there were also 20 consecutive races from 1980 to 1999 that saw the favorite finish no better than second, which isn’t a great sign.
Renegade also drew Post 1 as his starting gate, which is a notoriously difficult spot to win from. Not since 1986 has the first post produced the winner of the Kentucky Derby, meaning Renegade would need to break a 40-year curse. Because of the post’s position so far inside, horses can get bumped back in the field as others make their moves.
This is also an especially competitive field. We covered Renegade’s impressive HRN figures, but his aren’t the highest in the field. Commandment notched a 123 and 122 in his last two races, respectively. On April 4, Further Ado put out an impressive 127 after logging a 109 in his previous race.
Renegade is still trending up, so it’s possible that he could continue his ascent and post an even higher number at the Kentucky Derby. But two of the other favorites in the race have already hit higher speed figures in the weeks and months leading up to the race.
As the overall favorite, you want a horse that unquestionably performs better than any other in the field. We don’t have that with Renegade, which is cause for concern – even if he’s projected to perform better.
Final Verdict
There’s no fault in betting on Renegade to win the Kentucky Derby, but to say he’s the best value on the board at +450 would be pushing it. Commandment (+535) and Further Ado (+600) have both posted higher speed figures over the last few months, and they’re starting in more favorable post positions to boot.
Of course, anything can happen at the Derby. We’ve seen multiple historic longshots win this race more recently than we have overall favorites. That’s a big part of what makes this such an intriguing betting event.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
