We’ve got you covered with our top Kentucky Derby picks and betting insights to help you place your bets at the top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Weather your looking for a short-priced favorite to win, a middle of the pack horse who could cause an upset, or a huge outsider who might strike gold, we have a selection on all three as well as a preview of this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Expert Kentucky Derby Picks
| Pick | Odds | Confidence | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | +400 | 4/5 | Bovada |
| The Puma | +900 | 3.5/5 | Bovada |
| Fulleffort | +1900 | 3/5 | Heritage |
Kentucky Derby Preview
The race takes place at Churchill Downs at 6.57 pm Saturday for the 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby. This year’s Derby features Arkansas Derby winner Renegade as this year’s favorite at +300, with Commandment a close second at +500, as one of three horses in the race trained by Brad Cox.
Four of the previous Derby winners have had exactly 35 days’ rest before the Derby, and both Commandment and Renegade fit that timeline ahead of this year’s Derby. The Puma, Chief Wallabee, and Wonder Dean will also be going five weeks between races.
Recent years have seen some big outsiders winning the Derby, with the likes of Country House at +3900 in 2019 or Rich Strike at +8000 in 2023. The previous six winners of the Derby have been +600 odds or more, with five of those six being over +1200. Before the last six years, the previous six years had seen +550 being the biggest odds winner. To help you navigate these shifting trends and make the most of your wagers, be sure to explore our betting strategy guides.
Renegade Win (+300) with Bovada
Maybe it’s time the lower odds horses will swing back into trend this year, with Renegade being a very short price at +300 to win this year’s Derby. The favorite is trained by Todd Pletcher with top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr on the saddle. He last won a Grade One Derby in Arkansas on the 28th of March.
Ortiz is winless in the Derby despite two Belmont victories, whilst trainer Todd Pletcher has trained two winners at the Kentucky Derby; his last winner came in 2017 with Always Dreaming.
Renegade has finished 3/2/2/1/1 in each of his five career races thus far and has a favourable draw; he is likely the best horse in the race, but we wouldn’t lay any more than +300.
The Puma Each Way (+900) with Bovada
Both the 2023 and 2025 Kentucky Derby winners came second in the Florida Derby before going on to win the Derby. As we look ahead to the 2026 Kentucky Derby, The Puma could be following the same path as he last finished 2nd in the Florida Derby.
It’s worth noting that The Puma only lost the Florida Derby by a photo finish to Commandment on the day, and given that Commandment is +500 and The Puma +900, it seems both horses are as strong as each other right now, but The Puma is at much better odds at the moment in the betting.
Trainer Gustavo Delgado and Jockey Javier Castellano won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage. They have proven they can do it. The only concern for this horse is that he has only started three races in his career, coming in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
Fulleffort Each Way (+1900) with Heritage
This horse represents one of the race’s most interesting runners. He has been brilliant at Turfway’s surface, but this will be his first run on a dirt track. Fullofeffort has a strong pedigree when it comes to dirt tracks and throughout his career has had 3 wins in 7 career races, as well as having finished inside the top three in 6 of his 7 races to date.
Trainer Brad Cox is one of the best trainers in the field and also trains the favorite Renegade. We wouldn’t be surprised to see both his horses finish inside the top five, if not both the top three.
We advise locking these odds in now, as a few dirt track runs could see the horse running well with sportsbooks eventually slashing the current odds.
Place Your Kentucky Derby Picks Now
To get the best value odds available on our Kentucky Derby picks, we advise signing up with multiple sportsbooks.
As always, timing matters. Odds can shift quickly as it gets closer to starting orders, so be sure to lock in your bets when you feel the best value will be available.
Looking for more betting options and safer sports betting tips? Check out our website, Bookmakers Review, and open an account with one of our top-rated offshore sportsbooks to secure the best prices on this year’s Derby race.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
