Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Divisional Round Preview and Best Bet

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Jerick McKinnon #1 of the Kansas City Chiefs. Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images/AFP

The 2022 NFL Divisional round wraps up with what may prove to be the most explosive matchup in NFL playoff history. The fourth-seed Buffalo Bills travel to the second-seed Kansas City Chiefs in a Sunday night showdown. We have you covered from all betting angles and we will provide you with two great NFL picks

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 23, 2022 – 6:30 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium

The 12-6 Bills and 13-5 Chiefs are both coming off big blowout wins in the Wild Card against the Blue Book franchises. The Bills' 47-17 demolition of New England was a loud statement that Josh Allen and company are ready for the big stage. The Chiefs' 42-21 win continued a hot streak from the team after a slow start.

This crash course will end with one of these dynamic, star-laden teams on top. We're going to analyze the NFL odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.

Can Either QB Be Slowed Down?

Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen combined for 712 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, and just 13 incompletions in the Wild Card round. It's safe to say we're about to see an epic NFL playoff game as two incredibly powerful offenses are about to square off. There are not two more physically gifted and explosive downfield passers in the league. 

There's an inevitability about Mahomes in particular. Even though the Chiefs tend to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and drops at times, Mahomes has been unstoppable for most of the season. Their revamped offensive line has increased his playmaking ability both inside and outside of the pocket.

Allen is capable of doing the same. Now that Buffalo has been getting more reliable rushing contributions from Devin Singletary, Allen's potential has been even more consistently realized. I didn't think he could once again pick apart a Bill Belichick defense, but he made it look too easy in the freezing cold last week.

The Chiefs and Bills both have solid defenses that can create some turnovers and sacks. The same, however, could've been said about the Patriots and the Steelers and it didn't matter. This will come down to the better offense, pushing the over on a somewhat high total.

More Reliable Playmaking

In addition to Singletary breaking out, the Chiefs have also seen their own RB1 rise: Jerick McKinnon. He has been a huge improvement for the Chiefs thanks to his speed, catching ability, and toughness. As if Kansas City needed another weapon, they can now utilize a dynamic two-way threat out of the backfield like Clyde Edwards-Helaire was supposed to be.

The receiving battle is close to a draw between these teams as well. Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are both capable of going nuclear and are relatively uncoverable. Hill is more difficult one-on-one because of his ability to create after the catch. 

But it's the advantage at tight end that helps the Chiefs' projection. Travis Kelce will have his hands full trying to shake off the excellent Bills' linebacker and safety coverage options. If Kelce still produces, the Chiefs can only lose due to turnovers.

Buffalo is certainly able to get some turnovers and sacks from Mahomes, but Allen is just as vulnerable due to his own history of strange playoff turnovers. Kansas City's talented defensive line is more versatile than Buffalo's and has higher-upside with Chris Jones performing at an All-Pro level. Both secondaries are good but lacking in some individual matchups, again pointing towards points coming in troves.

I trust Mahomes and the Chiefs more than Allen so I'll take the points for the home favorite. The Chiefs feel like an unstoppable force right now, and I think they'll win the Super Bowl if they can win this epic showdown.

NFL Picks:

Chiefs -2 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Chiefs -2 (-108)
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Over 55 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 55 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.