MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with last night’s Rickwood Field Game participants getting a day off. After going 4-1-1 in our last six plays, we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in Friday’s Diamondbacks vs. Phillies matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, June 21, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
While Jordan Montgomery of the Diamondbacks is having an off year so far, Taijuan Walker of the Phillies has been just as bad and does not merit this much favoritism. Therefore, we are backing the Snakes as underdogs on Friday.
Poor Command
The Phillies may have the best record in the National League at 49-25, but Walker has not had much to do with that success. Now 31 years old, the veteran is having his worst Major League season so far as he is lucky to be 3-2 given his poor 5.33 ERA. Granted his xFIP is a bit better, but it is still quite shaky at 4.68.
Taijuan has a poor K/BB ratio of 7.35/3.31 per nine innings while seeing a steep decline in his groundball rate to 36.2% from 44.6% last year, which is a dangerous combination. That becomes more apparent when considering his horrific soft/hard contact ratio of 13.8% / 40.8%.
Walker is also facing an Arizona offense that has been showing steady improvement against right-handed pitchers. The Snakes have been pummeling southpaws all year to the tune of a wRC+ of 121, but they have now climbed to slightly above average against righties too at 101.
Positive Signs Lately
Now, Montgomery is also having an off year despite being 5-4, and he sports an eyesore ERA of 6.00. He does have the better xFIP here though at 4.53, and unlike Walker, he does at least show some positive signals for positive regression.
For starters, his groundball rate of 43.2% and swinging-strike rate of 11.3% are both right in line with last season when he finished with a 3.20 ERA that ranked eighth best in the majors. And perhaps best of all, Jordan’s regression may already be underway, as the southpaw allowed just one earned run over 10.2 innings in his last two starts with 10 strikeouts
The Pick
The bottom line here is Walker does not deserve to be this big of a price, especially with Montgomery being the only pitcher here showing signs of returning to form. Bet the Diamondbacks to upset in the City of Brotherly Love.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 6 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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