Diamondbacks vs. Padres MLB Best Bet: Ryne Keys Runs in San Diego

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Ryne Nelson #19 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches during the first inning of a game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on June 08, 2024 in San Diego, California. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Over 8 (-115)
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We have a typical full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball. Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a closer look at a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.

These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in San Diego, where our model points to a total when the Diamondbacks visit the Padres.

For more of our betting analysis, check out:

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

Sunday, July 07, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Petco Park

We expect a higher-scoring game than the posted total indicates, so we are betting the Over when Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks visit Dylan Cease and the Padres.

Don’t Believe Last Start

Nelson comes off one of his better outings of the season last time out allowing one run in five innings. However, we do not expect a duplication of that here from a guy who is 5-6 with a 5.42 ERA. Granted he has a lower xFIP, but it is still not good at 4.64.

Ryne is a low strikeout guy who allows hard contact, which is not an enviable combination. To wit, his strikeout rate is only 6.04/9, right in line with his 6.00/9 last year, and he has a poor soft/weak contact ratio of 13.2% / 38.2%. And there is no reason to expect improvement given his low 8.2% swinging strike rate.

He is facing a San Diego offense with an excellent wRC+ against right-handed pitchers of 121, which is second in the Major Leagues and not much behind the Yankees (123).

Need Not Allow Much

Now, we actually like Cease, as he deserves better than a 7-7 record, given his fine strikeout rate of 11.47/9 and a 3.28 xFIP that is nearly a run lower than his 4.24 ERA. However, we are not inclined to lay the big odds on the money line here. That makes the Over a better option for us. Since we expect the Padres to tee off on Nelson, Cease would not need to allow much to clear this Over.

Besides, Dylan is not in his best form right now with three bad starts in his last four outings. Yes, the one good start was a scoreless outing, but he allowed a total of 17 runs in 12 innings over the three bad ones, including six runs in just 3.2 innings last time out.

The Pick

While we expect positive regression from Cease given his good xFIP, remember that he would only need to allow a few runs if Nelson struggles as we expect. Therefore, back the Over in San Diego.

Predicted Score: Padres 7 – Diamondbacks 4

MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Bookmaker

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Over 8 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.