MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typically full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups Sunday with all 30 MLB teams in action. And we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes at 1:40pm ET in the Big Apple, where our model likes a side when the Diamondbacks visit the Mets.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Sunday, June 02, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Citi Field
We give right-hander Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks the pitching edge over lefty Jose Quintana of the Mets here. That has us backing Arizona in the Big Apple Sunday.
Snakes Battering Southpaws
Quintana got off to a good start this year with a 3.48 ERA in April, but that masked a 4.51 xFIP that month. Then he did indeed regress badly in May posting a 7.20 ERA, although to be fair he had a 4.47 xFIP. The end-result is his current 5.06 ERA and 4.49 xFIP with weak accompanying metrics.
The southpaw has a career-low strikeout rate of 5.98/9 innings that is validated by a poor swinging-strike rate of 7.6%, which is also a career low. He also has a high hard-contact rate of 37.1%, which has correlated with his six home runs allowed in his last four starts over only 22.1 innings.
To make matters worse, while the Diamondbacks have struggled offensively against righties, they have battered lefties ranking sixth in the majors against them in both wRC+ (114) and OPS (.755).
Underrated?
It seems we have backed Pfaadt in every start this year after he may have been the best pitcher in the Arizona rotation after August last year. And while he enters at 2-4 with a 4.16 ERA, his metrics indicate positive regression is in order, starting with his 3.65 xFIP.
Brendon has slashed his walks to 1.61/9 from 2.44/9 his rookie season last year and he has maintained a good strikeout rate of 8.46/9. Furthermore, he has lowered his hard-contact rate to 25.9% from a shaky 38.6% last year.
He is facing a Mets offense that has struggled at home, posting a weak 91 wRC+ at Citi Field while ranking 29th out of 30 MLB teams in home OPS at .629.
With Pfaadt grading out better Sabermetrically and Arizona owning the better offensive splits here, bet the Snakes in Flushing.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Mets 2
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-107) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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