NFL Pick: 2023 Detroit Lions Under 9½ Wins (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Detroit Lions enter an NFL season as the standalone favorite in the NFC North for the first time since 1982. That ended up being a strike season where they finished 4-5, good for 4th place in their division.
High expectations have never suited the Lions well, but their solid finish to the 2022 season combined with a toss-up division have them as the favorites to win their division. The top-rated offshore sportsbooks give Detroit an over/under of 9.5 wins. The Lions have not won double-digit games since the 2014 season (11-5).
But Aaron Rodgers is gone in Green Bay, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to regress after going 8-0 in close games, and the Bears still have a lot of issues to work out. Maybe this is designed for Dan Campbell’s group to deliver a division title, but they must start strong, unlike his first 2 seasons on the job.
The Changes That Matter
The Lions are one of only 7 teams this year bringing back the same head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback. After drafting 4 players in the top 45 picks of the draft, it may be rookies and a few low-key free agents who are trying to turn this thing around and get the Lions into the playoffs.
But after a busy draft night with trades, did the Lions get proper value with their picks, or will this class be a lot of lateral movements for the team?
The Running Back Dilemma
The Lions originally had the No. 6 pick in the 2023 draft. They could have taken Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who many considered the best defender in the draft. He could have beefed up a line that already has Aidan Hutchinson ready to become a star from last year’s draft.
This was certainly a choice, but Detroit traded down to No. 12 with character concerns around Carter, who eventually went No. 9 to the Eagles.
Instead…
Instead of a stud defender, the Lions went with running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who almost every analyst around had ranked behind Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 pick by the Falcons. With the way running backs can be found anywhere in the NFL, it certainly is one of the worst value picks of the draft.
But even if Gibbs breaks the Barry Sanders curse and works out well for this team that has gone through several busts at the position the last 25 years, we have to remember the Lions already had strong running back play in 2022.
D’Andre Swift (Eagles) and Jamaal Williams (Saints) are gone now, but they combined for 2,070 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns last year. Can we really expect the rookie Gibbs and free agent David Montgomery (Bears) to improve on that?
The average Montgomery season is about 1,150 total yards and 7 touchdowns. He averages just 3.9 yards per carry for his career, which is below average. Maybe Gibbs will be a stud soon, but this just feels like a lateral move at best for the Lions.
The Tight End Dilemma
Last year, the Lions traded tight end T.J. Hockenson to the rival Vikings during the season. Hockenson ended up having his best season with 914 yards and 6 touchdowns playing for 2 teams, but he never lived up to the No. 8 pick in the 2019 draft.
Hopefully, the Lions have learned their lesson after these high picks on tight ends with Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Eborn, and now Hockenson. But this did leave a hole at receiving tight end, and the Lions used their No. 34 pick on Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta.
Draft Gamble
The Raiders took Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, who many analysts had as a top tight end along with Dalton Kincaid, who the Bills took in the 1st round. So, this is a battle Lions fans can pay attention to see if they made the right choice.
But for Hockenson’s flaws, he likely would have made a bigger impact in 2023 than a rookie will. Very few tight ends come out strong as receivers right away. This feels like another lateral move at best.
The Linebacker Pick and the Front 7 Impact
Detroit used the No. 18 pick on Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell. Many analysts had him as the best off-ball linebacker in this draft, but many also mocked him going in the 30s or 40s in the 2nd round.
Detroit might have been able to wait to get him at 34 where they took LaPorta, and instead, they could have gone with Dalton Kincaid as the premiere receiving tight end in the 1st round of this draft.
Again, there was a lot of questionable value with this draft class for Detroit and the positions it targeted. But if the front 7 is going to improve to get this defense to a respectable level for the playoffs, it will be on Aidan Hutchinson having a Year 2 surge and getting into Defensive Player of the Year consideration.
Hutchinson looked the part of a No. 2 pick last year with 9.5 sacks and 3 interceptions.
Hopefully, he is just warming up. Watching him grow this year will be a lot more fun and impactful than anything the rookie linebacker Campbell can do.
The Secondary Shuffle
Finally, the Lions used the No. 45 pick on Alabama safety Brain Branch. Many had him going higher than that, so this could be a steal, or it could be a signal that he slipped for not being as good as expected. Time will tell.
The Lions certainly need help in the secondary. They also brought in C.J. Gardner-Johnson from the Eagles where he had 6 interceptions last year – he had 5 interceptions for the Saints in 2019-21, so do not count on him to do that well in the picks department.
The Lions also pulled the plug on the Jeff Okudah experiment, the corner they took No. 3 overall in 2020. Detroit added Emmanuel Moseley (49ers) and Cam Sutton (Steelers) as veterans with some experience.
The secondary could be more improved than the other units we discussed for Detroit, but it still does not look like a top unit by any stretch.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
A poor start and hot finish does not historically predict a hot start the following season. The Lions are going to have to be better early in the season in 2023, and with the marginal roster improvements, it feels hard to trust this team to get the job done.
The schedule is another big reason to think the under is the right play here:
- The Lions start in Kansas City on championship banner night, so a 0-1 start is likely.
- They better avenge that Seattle loss in Week 2 when the Seahawks come back to Detroit after last year’s 48-45 win.
- Another Green Bay sweep is not that likely as Jordan Love could be solid for the Packers.
- The Vikings can still score and get at least a split with the Lions.
- The Bears should be better than 3-14 with the bottom-ranked passing offense and scoring defense this year.
- Besides Kansas City on opening night, the Lions have several tough road games against the Ravens (Week 7), Chargers (Week 10), Saints (Week 13) and Cowboys (Week 17).
Over or Under?
The Lions should be a quality watch this season, but it is hard to predict the record will look any better.
Maybe 9-8 is enough for a wild card this time, or even a division title. But the best bet is under 9½ wins for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Detroit Lions Under 9½ Wins (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
On the Last Season of “The Lions”: From 1-6 to a Winning Record
The 2022 Detroit Lions were a fun, volatile team to watch. They were 12-5 ATS, the 2nd-best record in the NFL last year, so head coach Dan Campbell continued to do a good job of keeping the team close in games.
They gave the Eagles a little rally scare in Week 1 after pulling within 38-35 in the final minutes, and they gave the Bills all they could handle in a 28-25 loss on Thanksgiving.
Silly Things
But the Lions would also do silly things like lose a 48-45 shootout at home to Seattle before getting crushed 29-0 a week later to a New England team starting rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. They also followed a close win against the Jets with a crushing 37-23 loss in Carolina in Week 16 where the run defense allowed 320 yards. That was the team’s only loss after Thanksgiving, completing a turnaround from 1-6 to 9-8, a winning record.
Ultimately, losing to Seattle 48-45 did the Lions in for the playoffs and sent the Seahawks in their place as the No. 7 seed with a 9-8 record. The Lions beat Green Bay in the season finale to help push Seattle in thanks to that tiebreaker.
But the sweep of Green Bay itself was an oddity as the Lions did not score many points in either game. In fact, the Lions had 2 of their 4 lowest-scoring games of the season come against the Packers, yet they notched 4 interceptions from Aaron Rodgers, who almost never throws picks against this defense.
The Lions spent much of the season with the bottom-ranked scoring defense, and they did finish dead last in yards and first downs allowed. Part of the problem was a defense that could not win on 3rd downs where the Lions ranked 30th.
Good News
The good news is quarterback Jared Goff had his best season since he led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown established himself as a big name in his 2nd season with 106 catches for 1,161 yards. The running game was solid, and the Lions had a league-low 15 giveaways with a whopping 5 of them coming in the Dallas loss alone.
The Lions did some good things last year, and they may have been a more interesting No. 7 seed against the 49ers in the wild-card round instead of seeing Seattle drop to 0-3 against San Francisco. But there were also enough flaws with the Lions that missing the playoffs made sense too.
Calculators
