Top NCAAF Pick: Missouri -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The NCAAF Bowl Season has arrived, and we are here with a side and total in one of the New Year’s Six bowl matchups.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model, and we have the side and total in the Cotton Bowl with Ohio State taking on the Missouri Tigers. So let’s go through our best odds and see how to play them at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Missouri Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Ohio State should be fielding just a shell of the team that fell one game short of the College Football Playoff in the Cotton Bowl, while Missouri should be at full strength. The now slightly favored Tigers are our bet to cover the small spread for this matchup.
Who’s Playing?
The 11-1 Buckeyes would be in the College Football Playoff if not for ending the season with a 30-24 loss to top-ranked Michigan, and settling for a New Year’s Six bowl bid has led to a plethora of players leaving the team by either opting out or entering the transfer portal.
The most significant starters that have already entered the transfer portal are quarterback Kyle McCord and wide receiver Julian Fleming, but there are at least six other starters more likely to opt out and enter the NFL Draft than play in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., tight end Cade Stover and four defensive starters that combined for around 2200 snaps in Josh Proctor, JT Tuimoloau, Michael Hall Jr. and Tommy Eichenberg.
Additionally, eight other players from both sides of the ball have already entered the transfer portal, greatly hindering the Ohio State depth. Just about the least affected position as of now is running back. But remember, Ohio State was only 86th in the country in rushing offense this season, compared to 22nd in passing offense, so the losses of McCord and Fleming, as well as probably Harrison and Stover, are huge.
All Good in Mizzou
Conversely, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz announced that he expects everyone on the team to be available, and that includes the return of linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, who has not played since Week 11. The team had just one player enter the portal and that was just a role player in linebacker Dameon Wilson, who played only 45 snaps all season.
This is a Missouri offense ranked 25th in the country in total offense at 441.4 yards per game, led by quarterback Brady Cook, who completed 66.7% of his passes while throwing for 3174 yards on a potent 9.0 yards per attempt, with 20 touchdown passes against five interceptions.
Now, normally facing an Ohio State team ranked third in total defense would be a tall order, but as mentioned, four defensive starters are favored to opt out for the Buckeyes and they already lost some defensive depth to the transfer portal. Not to mention that Cook is probably better than any quarterback Ohio State faced during Big Ten play.
The Pick
So, there is a good reason that Missouri has moved to 2.5-point favorites after opening as 6-point underdogs before the Ohio State defection news, and we are betting on the Tigers to roar in the Cotton Bowl.
Predicted Score: Missouri 34 – Ohio State 24
NCAAF Pick: Missouri -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Still Enough Points Scored
Moving on to the total for this game, just about the only good news for the Ohio State offense is that Devin Brown should be able to start at quarterback after getting injured earlier in the year. He does have experience, in fact playing 72 snaps this season pre-injury. Sadly, he will probably have no starters to throw to, but he should at least be able to put up some points against the 62nd-ranked Missouri passing defense.
And as we alluded to earlier, Missouri may very well be the best offense that Ohio State has faced all year, and the Buckeyes will almost certainly be short-handed on defense, so it would not be surprising if the Tigers surpass the 30 points Michigan scored against the Buckeyes in the season finale.
The Pick
This total seems to be a bit light, and we are betting this game to go Over the total.
NCAAF Pick: Over 49 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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