Top NCAAF Pick: USC +2½ (+101) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The NCAAF odds post early lines for a reason and we like to see where they go so that we can take advantage of underdogs that are getting too many points or the favorites laying too few. Let’s scope out the lines at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some more money this week in college football!
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 11:00 PM EDT at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Key Facts
- San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- San Diego State is 8-2 SU vs. Hawaii over the last 10 meetings.
- Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 7.
Recent Struggles and Triumphs
It wasn’t a complete shock that the Aztecs were carpet bombed, 49-10, by Air Force in their last outing considering they had held up well against two superior opponents in the games preceding that one.
Nationally ranked Oregon State hosted the Aztecs on September 16th and came away with a 26-9 victory but it was San Diego State that brought home the dough as 24½ point road dogs. The following week San Diego State welcomed Boise State to Snapdragon Stadium and lost a hard-fought battle, 34-31, yet covered the number as 4½ point home hounds.
Now they will face an inferior opponent for a change and one they have manhandled over the last several years as evidenced by their 8-2 record against the Rainbow Warriors.
The Pick
Based on the NCAAF computer predictions, the initial line was as high as SDS -6 but we found value over at Heritage where we can get off that key number and get the Aztecs -5 in this one.
NCAAF Pick: San Diego State -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
USC Trojans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Notre Dame Stadium
Key Facts
- USC owns the No. 2 scoring and No. 3 passing offense in the nation.
- USC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 7.
- USC is 3-1 ATS versus Notre Dame over their last 4 meetings.
USC’s Surprise Edge Over Notre Dame
This line opened with Notre Dame as 1-point home favorites but only a day later we are getting undefeated USC and arguably the most potent offense in the nation at +2½, which could drift north to the magic 3 if we’re lucky.
However, for the sake of this discussion, we will happily grab the Trojans at +2½ because they probably won’t need any points in this one. Yes, that’s right, the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite.
Now I realize the public’s mental snapshot of teams is limited to the last game they played which is why the masses are quickly bailing on USC after their dubious 43-41 overtime victory against Arizona as 21½ point home chalk. It was another disappointing defensive performance but the offense overcame those weaknesses – again.
We must ask ourselves if the Notre Dame defense can contain this Trojans’ juggernaut led by reigning Heisman-winner, Caleb Williams, and can the Golden Domers’ offense keep pace in a shootout?
The Pick
The answer is no, and no – which is why we are grabbing the small number and taking home the cash with USC.
NCAAF Pick: USC +2½ (+101) at Bookmaker
Navy Midshipmen vs. Charlotte 49ers
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 02:00 PM EDT at Jerry Richardson Stadium
Key Facts
- Navy is 6-2 ATS over their last 8 road games.
- Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games at home.
- Charlotte is 4-16 SU in their last 20 games.
Navy’s Running Game
Navy has already dropped a full point from -4½ to -3½ in the very early going but I am hoping we see this number drift south to -3 or below. However, I will take what I can get and if you believe this is a ringing endorsement of the Middies then I will disabuse you of that notion and tell you this is much more a fade of the atrocious Charlotte 49ers.
Yes, Navy’s 2-3 straight-up record is underwhelming and their 1-4 ATS mark is downright depressing but they get a cupcake this week. Charlotte is 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS but they haven’t sniffed a win since they defeated FCS entry, Sacramento State, and are ranked 125th in scoring.
But to be fair, Navy is not a whole lot better but what the Middies do better than almost anyone else is run the football. They average 248.2 rushing yards per game which places them 4th in the nation in that category. This means Navy will own the time of possession in this game and Charlotte doesn’t have the wherewithal to score in a hurry to mitigate that advantage.
The Pick
We’re getting a full point in value on the better team – let’s take it and bet the Midshipmen.
NCAAF Pick: Navy -3½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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