College Football Week 4 Early Value Analysis: Bargain Hunting for NCAAF Lines

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NCAAF Pick: Arizona State +34.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Arizona State +34.5 (-105)
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The oddsmakers have posted the early lines for Week 4 of college football so let’s see where they go with some early value analysis so that we can take advantage of the underdogs that are getting too many points and the favorites laying too few at the top offshore sportsbooks.

Last week we hit with South Carolina getting a bundle of points against Georgia and although the Gamecocks lost, they kept it within the margins in a 24-14 setback. Let’s scope out the NCAAF odds at the best shops and make some more money this week in college football! 

USC Trojans vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 10:30 PM EDT at Mountain America Stadium

Key Facts 

  • Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS over their last five meetings against USC. 
  • Arizona State’s Xavier Guillory has 12 catches with 140 receiving yards while scoring one touchdown. 
  • Arizona State’s Cameron Skattebo has rushed for a team-leading 148 yards on a 4.1 yards per carry average while scoring two touchdowns. And six receptions for 51 yards. 

Offensive Juggernaut

It’s a tall task to fade the offensive juggernaut that is USC, currently ranked No. 5 in the nation with a 3-0 straight-up record and 2-1 against the spread. Quarterback Caleb Williams is a Heisman candidate again after winning it last season and the Trojans should be able to dispatch the Sun Devils without breaking too much of a sweat. 

However, if there is a chink in the Trojans’ armor it is on defense where they have allowed 17.3 points per game to inferior teams like San Jose State, Nevada, and Stanford.

The Pick

Moreover, the Sun Devils have had a string of success at the betting windows for their backers when facing USC in recent memory as they have gone 4-0-1 ATS over their last five meetings including last year’s 42-25 loss in which they were getting a +24.5 point head start. 

The line opened at USC-32 and this number has spiked two points in the early going to where we see ASU getting +34.5 over at Bovada. Let’s swallow hard and back the live home dogs here. 

NCAAF Pick: Arizona State +34.5 (-105) at Bovada

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Arizona State +34.5 (-105)
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Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears  

Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at McLane Stadium

Key Facts 

  • Baylor is 3-0-1 ATS over their last five meetings against Texas. 
  • Baylor’s running back, Dominic Richardson has 156 rushing yards in his two games for a 5.2 yards per carry average.  
  • Baylor’s tight end, Drake Dabney, has 139 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the season. 

Smells Fishy

Something is fishy in this game as the line opened with Texas -8 and that number has skyrocketed to north of two touchdowns as of this Monday morning writing. Perhaps the status of Baylor’s lead back, Dominic Richardson, has something to do with it as a high ankle sprain he suffered in the Utah game prohibited him from playing in last week’s 30-7 win over Long Island University. 

Sleepy Dom

But I don’t see anything about him not playing in this one as the team likely rested him against an inferior opponent, pointing to his return against a Big Ten foe in Texas this week. It could also have something to do with the way they beat LIU, 31-7, not even sniffing a cover as 45-point home chalk.  

Let’s not forget they are also playing a legitimate national powerhouse in No. 3-ranked Texas this week but Baylor will get the luxury of playing their fourth consecutive game at home. 

The Pick

Regardless, this line seems a bit steep and Texas could very well be looking ahead to a showdown against Oklahoma in a few weeks after defeating Wyoming, 31-10, but failing to cover the 30.5 point impost last week. 

If Bovada wants to give Baylor more than two touchdowns to start then why not take it? 

NCAAF Pick: Baylor +15 (-110) at Bovada

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Baylor +15 (-110
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Arizona Wildcats vs. Stanford Cardinal

Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Stanford Stadium

Key Facts 

  • Stanford has won six straight and is 5-1 ATS versus Arizona over the last six meetings. 
  • Stanford quarterback, Ashton Daniels, has a 62 percent completion percentage with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  
  • Stanford’s backfield platoon of Casey Filkins and E.J. Smith have combined for 319 rushing yards on a 7.6 yards per carry average.  


The Cardinals got stomped, 56-10, by USC and failed to cover as 28-point road dogs in their second game of the season. Last week they were hoping to atone for that humiliating loss when they took on Sacramento State as 6.5 point home chalk. But again, they failed, losing outright, 30-23, to the Hornets. 

Therefore, it’s no big surprise why the public is fading them and Arizona just happens to be what’s next for the slumping Cardinal. 

The Pick

Nevertheless, it’s never a bad idea to be on opposite ends of Joe Q. Public when the oddsmakers are forced to adjust their lines. In this case, we see the number has drifted from Arizona -9. to -12.5 and I don’t see the Wildcats being double-digit favorites on the road to too many opponents including Stanford.  

NCAAF Pick: Stanford +12.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Stanford +12.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.