NCAAF Pick: Oregon State -2½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We’re headed to Week 4 of the college football season. Here are three NCAAF computer predictions from our AI model that you should consider for Saturday.
Oregon State Beavers vs. Washington State Cougars
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Martin Stadium
It’s All About the Numbers
The AI Model suggests the Oregon State Beavers will earn a 16-point win over Washington State on Saturday. However, Oregon State is only -2.5 against the Cougars this weekend. I see some value!
The Oregon State Beavers have won their first three games against non-Power-five schools, but that doesn’t mean they’re not good. The Beavers have held teams to 260 yards per game, allowing only 57.7 yards on the ground. Oregon State’s coverage has been excellent, and its run defense has been just as good, but what stands out most is the offense.
Under DJ Uiagalelei, the Beavers have averaged 466 yards per game on offense. Uiagalelei has thrown for 630 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Damien Martinez has led the running game with 351 yards on 40 caries. Martinez has earned 8.8 yards per carry to begin the year. However, against Washington State, it’ll be much more difficult.
Can Washington State Keep Up?
Washington State has a lethal run defense and a better secondary. It’s just that it’ll be hard to trust the offense against Oregon State. Washington State has added 535.7 yards per game on offense, but the pass protection and run block isn’t where it needs to be for Pac-12 play.
The Cougars defeated Colorado State, earned a convincing win over Wisconsin, and won against Northern Colorado, but all three of those teams scored at least 21 points.
The Pick
This will be the most challenging defense Washington State will play in the entire season. I don’t think the Cougars can keep up offensively.
Therefore, ride Oregon State at -2.5 on the NCAAF odds board. The AI Model knows.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon State -2½ (-110) at BetOnline
BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Underdogs With a Shot Against Kansas!
Our AI Model believes the BYU Cougars will earn a 42-33 win over the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday. BYU is currently a 9-point underdog. Therefore, there’s a lot of value in the BYU Cougars in this matchup.
The BYU Cougars upset the Arkansas Razorbacks last weekend with a 38-31 win. BYU is now 3-0 with wins over Sam Houston State, Southern Utah, and Arkansas.
A win against Kansas would put them on the map. The Cougars have only earned 310.7 yards per game on offense. However, the defense has held teams to 318.3 yards per game. The run defense has been superior, and the tackling has been textbook. Even the coverage hasn’t been all that bad.
They’ll need to play good defense against Kansas, who have averaged over 500 yards per game offensively. Jalon Daniels has thrown for 575 yards and two touchdowns. He also has a QBR of 79.2, the 22nd best in college football.
Jayhawks’ Strong Running Game
The Jayhawks have an elite running game behind Devin Neal, who has earned 7.6 yards per carry on 40 carries this season. Neal has also added five touchdowns. But, again, BYU has been dominant against the run this season.
It’s Kansas’ defense that has struggled to make tackles. They’re also not as good against the run. They’re just better in coverage and have a better pass rush.
The Pick
Ultimately, this game should be close. I’m thinking of a one-score game here. Take BYU and the points at the offshore sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: BYU +9 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Boston College Eagles vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Cardinal Stadium
Big Louisville Win
Our AI Model believes the Louisville Cardinals should earn a 34-17 win over the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. With Louisville at -14, there’s some value on the Cardinals to cover at home against Boston College.
The Louisville Cardinals look much better through three weeks than Boston College. The Eagles have some hype after almost defeating the Florida State Seminoles but almost doesn’t count.
Boston College’s Struggles and Louisville’s Advantages
The Eagles have earned under 400 yards of offense and have a loss to Northern Illinois and a 31-28 against FCS opponent Holy Cross before that close matchup against Florida State.
Thomas Castellanos has a QBR of 52.1 and has thrown for 644 yards this season. He played much better in his last game. But overall, the receivers at Boston College aren’t playing at a high level. On defense, the pass rush has been weak and not creating havoc.
That will help Louisville’s Jack Plummer find his super-fast receivers down the field. Plummer hasn’t played his best. But he’s still thrown for 732 yards and five touchdowns. He just has to make better decisions and not throw interceptions.
Meanwhile, the defense has allowed only 337 yards per game, with 109 yards on the ground. The run defense is electric, which Boston College wants to do.
The Pick
They want to wear you down and run the football to hold time of possession. It won’t matter what Boston College can’t get first downs.
Take Louisville at -14.
NCAAF Pick: Louisville -14 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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