NCAAF Pick: Colorado State +23.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have already reached Week 3 of the College Football season in the blink of an eye, and just because it is Friday, that does not mean that there is no last-minute value to be found on the Saturday card.
To that end, we are here with our three best bets of the week, and remember that these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus resulting in a high majority of our selections being underdogs.
While this week may not be filled with marquee matchups, we do believe we have found three underdog best bets that still hold value at this hour.
Colorado State Rams vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 10:00 PM EDT at Folsom Field
Colorado has been one of the biggest stories in college football in Deion Sanders’ first season as an FBS coach, but we are taking the big points with Colorado State, with the Buffaloes being in a horrific scheduling spot.
Letdown Anyone?
You see, Colorado opened the Sanders Era by beating two ranked teams in TCU on the road and Nebraska here at home, and they follow up this contest with two more ranked teams as they begin Pac-12 play vs. Oregon and USC. That makes this the most obvious “flat” spot on their schedule, and under these circumstances, perhaps one of the flattest spots for any team in the country this year.
Also, do not lose sight of the fact that the Buffaloes have actually been outgained through two games due to a defense ranked 131in total defense allowing 556.0 yards per game and 118th in yards per play allowed at 6.4.
Recruiting Wars
Colorado State has a massive motivational edge here, as while this is a clear letdown spot for Colorado, it is conversely the biggest game of the year for State as an upset here could swing some recruits their way.
Sure, the Rams were wiped out 50-24 by Washington State in their season opener, but they did pass for 320 yards while playing at a lightning pace of 21.1 seconds per snap. That gives them great scoring potential here considering the struggles of the Colorado defense, and remember that State has had two weeks to prepare for this game since their September 2nd opener.
So while Colorado will probably emerge victorious on the field, Colorado State’s huge motivational edge and ability to score makes these massive points worth taking.
Predicted Score: Colorado 35 – Colorado State 24
NCAAF Pick: Colorado State +23.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Tennessee looks like a vulnerable road favorite here considering a flat offense to this point, so we are taking the points with Florida in The Swamp.
No Explosiveness
Tennessee comes off of a 30-13 home win over an FCS school in Austin Peay in which the offense was quite lackluster, especially quarterback Joe Milton III, who completed 21 of 33 passes for 228 yards, which works out to a pedestrian 6.9 yards per attempt. Furthermore, the average depth of his passes was just 5.2 yards, and he took hardly any shots downfield.
Now some may speculate much of that was by design so as not to give Florida much to scout while facing a sub-level opponent, but considering going from hosting an FCS school to now playing in a hostile environment, we would have liked to see at least a hint of some preparation for this game.
Great Offensive Line
The Gators have one of the best offensive lines in the country, as reflected in advanced stats, as they rank fifth in the country in Line Yards and 21st in Stuff Rate, and that has helped the mainstream stats too with Florida averaging 453.0 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.
And contrary to Tennessee, 283.0 of those yards have come through the air, which is 38th best in the county. The Gators also rank third in the country in total defense, allowing just 191,0 yards per game, although to be fair, they only faced one FBS team in Utah. Still, they did limit the Utes to a commendable 270 yards and only two plays of over 20 yards.
So if Tennessee is as bad offensively as it looked last week, the Gators can easily pull the upset here. But even if the Volunteers were being coy and saving their bullets for this game, we still believe taking the points with Florida at home is the smart play.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 30 – Florida 28
Top NCAAF Pick: Florida +6 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Davis Wade Stadium
With major concerns surrounding the LSU defense, we are taking the nearly double digits with a suddenly run-heavy Mississippi State team.
Defense Leaking
LSU began the season ranked in the Top 5, but the Tigers promptly dropped their opener 45-24 to Florida State while allowing an uncharacteristic 494 total yards, and although they rebounded with a 72-10 rout of Grambling out of the FCS, there were still some warning signs from the defense vs. an outclassed opponent.
LSU allowed 232 yards on Grambling’s first three possessions, including seven runs of 12 yards or more. Sure, the Tigers buckled down after those three possessions, but that was partly due to the offense scoring at will, forcing Grambling to pass more. Overall, the Tigers are allowing 5.1 yards per play, which ranks just 63rd in the country.
Could Eat Clock
Mississippi State did not have high hopes entering the season with a totally new offensive scheme following the death of Coach Mike Leach, yet they sit at 2-0. Granted, they opened the season with an FCS cupcake, but they then followed up with a nice 31-24 win over Arizona in which they rushed for 145 yards.
This is no longer the Air Raid offense it was under Leach as the 2023 version has run the ball 62% of the time. That approach seems ideal here though, considering LSU had some issues with the Grambling running game before the score got out of hand, and we like the Bulldogs’ chances of having some time-consuming drives featuring the newfound running game.
Considering the 9.5-point spread, we feel Mississippi State will have enough long drives here to both limit LSU possessions and stay within striking distance of an upset, so take the points.
Predicted Score: LSU 30 – Mississippi State 24
NCAAF Pick: Mississippi +9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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