NCAAF Pick: Florida State -25½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
There’s plenty of action in Week 3 to satisfy every college football bettor, and we have best bets for three of them along the East Coast.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Our Saturday free picks journey heads a little further south into the Sunshine State, where Tennessee takes on Florida. Josh Heupel and the Volunteers are in the strange role as favorites in Gainesville where the Gators have won the last 8 meetings.
Early Action on UF
The Volunteers went out -7½ officially, and that has dipped under the TD line to 6½ at many of the best betting outlets. The total has also moved down to 57½-58.
Tennessee’s last win at The Swamp was in 2003. Last year’s game in Knoxville produced 1,170 yards of offense as Tennessee held off Florida, 38-33, as 11-point chalk. The Gators had won the previous 5 matchups, and have covered 4 of the last 5.
Vols Shine in The Swamp
Whether the Volunteers got caught looking ahead or not, the fact remains Tennessee played nothing close to its No. 9 ranking in a 30-13 win over Austin Peay. The Volunteers were 7-TD favorites and were manhandled on the clock by the FCS Governors with spotty play in the defensive backfield.
Florida was also a 7-TD favorite and failed to cover in 49-7 win over McNeese State. The difference was the Gators never really struggled, running at will and playing tough defense against the Cowboys. A late Florida fumble deep in its own territory set up McNeese for its only score to keep the Gators from covering.
Last week’s embarrassing effort spurs the Volunteers this week, and they will break their skid in Gainesville with a 33-24 decision.
NCAAF Pick: Tennessee -7 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kenan Stadium
From Chestnut Hill to Chapel Hill, we go for our next best bet, this one an interconference matchup between Minnesota of the Big Ten and North Carolina of the ACC. The Golden Gophers and Tar Heels each bring 2-0 records into the clash, but UNC is the only one that will emerge with an undefeated record intact.
First Meeting between Gophers & Heels
The question is, will the Tar Heels cover the 7½-point spread currently being listed on NCAAF odds boards?
This is not only the first time the programs have met, but a rarity for either to meet a Big Ten or ACC team during the regular season. Minnesota beat Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl last December, and is playing an ACC team in the regular season for the first time since beating Wake Forest in October 1968.
This is North Carolina’s first Big Ten foe since winning big at Illinois in September 2018.
Can UNC Defense ‘Under-whelm’ Us?
Each squad is coming off wins over Group of 5 teams, though Minnesota and North Carolina failed to cover similar spreads in their victories. The Golden Gophers were slow to get their offense moving, then turned it over twice in the second half of a 25-6 win vs. Eastern Michigan. North Carolina had to fight the whole way against Appalachian State before escaping with a 40-34 double-overtime decision.
North Carolina’s defense was a letdown last week, but both stop units will step up in this one to give us an ‘under’ winner.
NCAAF Pick: Under 49 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Alumni Stadium
In one of the biggest mismatches on the ACC slate this season, Mike Norvell and Florida State should be able to name the score this Saturday up in Chestnut Hill against Boston College. But with a trip to Clemson on next week’s fixture, the question becomes can Seminole reserves hold the Golden Eagles off a backdoor cover?
‘Noles Run to Cover
It’s a bloated line at the top sportsbooks where Florida State is favored by 26-27. That’s the widest gap in the rivalry since the Seminoles were 29-point chalk in 2012, and this year’s renewal is also carrying a 49-49½ point total.
Boston College’s first two results clearly show why the Golden Eagles were picked among the dregs of the ACC. Jeff Hefley’s charges barely held off Holy Cross this past weekend, eking out a 31-28 win. That the Eagles were only laying 10½ to the FCS Crusaders gives you an idea of how little is expected from BC.
After slapping LSU around in the season opener, Florida State pounded Southern Miss last Saturday in Tallahassee. The O-line dominated Southern Miss, allowing the Seminoles to average over 8 yards a snap.
Even with it being a look-ahead situation for the Seminoles, they should overmatch BC.
NCAAF Pick: Florida State -25½ (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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