NCAAF Pick: Miami +4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Welcome to Week 2 of the 2023 College Football season, and just because it is Friday, that does not mean there is no value still to be found on the Saturday slate.
Thus, we are here with our three best bets of the week, and remember that these are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus resulting in the large majority of our plays being underdogs.
That is indeed the case this week, with all three of our selections being value dogs, including two power conference schools and one under-the-radar play.
Air Force Falcons vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Money won from low-profile games is just as sweet as money won from marquee matchups, and we see value in taking the double-digit points with Sam Houston State in a projected low-scoring affair vs. Air Force in Houston.
Welcome to the FBS
Sam Houston State is in its first season ever in the FBS, and its inaugural contest was a mixed bag in a 14-0 loss at BYU. The good news is that they covered the spread as 19-point underdogs and the defense was outstanding, limiting the Cougars to just 3.3 yards per rush and 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
The bad news was that calling the offense putrid would be an understatement, as that unit produced just 185 total yards. Remember though that this is a program that red-shirted some of its best players on both sides of the ball last season in preparation for this leap to FBS, and if the defense duplicates its performance from last week, then getting literally anything from the offense may be enough to cover double-digits.
No “Air” in Force
Air Force did Air Force things in a 42-7 opening rout of Robert Morris out of the FCS, piling up 374 rushing yards and attempting three passes. The Falcons’ triple-option is more realistically a double-option with the pass being a deep afterthought, and all those time-consuming drives mean fewer possessions, thus making it harder to cover double-digit spreads.
Plus, the top sportsbooks set a very low total for this game of 37.5, which goes back to what we said about Air Force having a tough time covering this number if Sam Houston gets anything out of its offense.
As long as SHSU is not deceived by the triple-option and defends the run as well as it did vs. the more balanced BYU offense, we will feel very good about taking all these points.
Predicted Score: Air Force 23 – Sam Houston State 16
NCAAF Pick: Sam Houston State +13½ (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Jones AT&T Stadium
The Texas Tech Red Raiders look like an overlay getting this many points at home, so we will take those points hosting the Oregon Ducks.
Classic Week 2 Over-Adjustment?
Week 2 lines can often be overreactions to Week 1 results, and we may be seeing a perfect example of that here with Texas Tech blowing a 17-0 lead and losing in overtime 35-33 at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last week. The Red Raiders still look like Big 12 contenders on paper though, so last week may have been a simple case of looking ahead to these Ducks, especially after that quick early lead.
The Red Raiders finished the season strong last year while beating Oklahoma and Texas along the way, and incoming transfer center Rusty Staats helps boost what was at times an inconsistent offensive line. Also, the defense returns six starters from a unit that led the Big 12 in sacks, and you can expect maximum effort in an attempt to avoid an 0-2 start.
Yes. But Against Who?
Oregon set a school scoring record by winning its Week 1 contest 81-7. Before placing those National Championship futures, however, consider that was an FCS school in Portland State, and the Ducks certainly did not win sportsmanship points by running up the score.
Karma aside, Oregon entered this season with serious questions about the defensive secondary, and those concerns still remain after shutting down a sub-level school, with this contest right here being the first real acid test.
We think Texas Tech has what it takes to exploit the untested Oregon secretary, and you know the Raiders will bring their “A” game after the shocking loss at Wyoming, so at the very least look for them to take this game to the wire if not win outright.
Predicted Score: Oregon 35 – Texas Tech 34
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech +6½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
We are projecting an upset when the 23rd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies pay a visit to the Miami Hurricanes.
Better Offensively
This is a rematch from last season, when the Aggies won a low-scoring affair 17-9 at home at College Station, but this 2023 version of the Hurricanes figures to be much better than the five-win team from a year ago as they ranked seventh on the Transfer Portal Rankings, with incoming wide receivers Tyler Harrell and Colbie Young adding balance to an offense that overly relied on the running game last year,
The Canes have a veteran quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, and he certainly enjoyed his new targets in a 38-3 romp of Miami-Ohio in Week 1, completing 17 of 22 passes for 201 yards, with Young making an immediate impact with 79 receiving yards and a touchdown, all while the running game amassed 250 rushing yards.
Red Flags on Defense?
The Aggies also had an impressive tune-up for this with a season-opening 52-10 blowout of an outclassed New Mexico team. And while the improvement of the Miami offense is due to better receivers since last year, the A&M offensive improvement – for one week anyway – can be attributed to offensive philosophy, with the Aggies going to an up-tempo offense with snaps coming two seconds faster than last season.
Will that strategy work again vs. a much better defense, especially with quarterback Conner Weigman still not assured of being the full-time starter? Also, the defense had some bad moments last week allowing some explosive plays on “normal” downs.
Miami is better equipped to put points on the board if Texas A&M continues to have defensive leaks, and while we are calling for an upset, our official pick is to take the points in a potential back-and-forth affair.
Predicted Score: Miami 27 – Texas A&M 24
NCAAF Pick: Miami +4 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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